Polymarket Topic Hub
Conflict Polymarket Briefs
Markets tied to military escalation, ceasefire risk, and regional security flashpoints.
41 Topic Results
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Polymarket Analysis • Jul 5, 2026
Kostyantynivka capture odds surge; claim–counterclaim cycle likely drove an extreme repricing
Polymarket odds that Russia captures Kostyantynivka by Sep 30, 2026 jumped 15pp to 89%, likely on fresh Russian capture claims and high-profile Ukrainian denials drawing trader focus.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 3, 2026
Strait of Hormuz ‘normal by July 15’ odds tumble after Iranian tanker routing warning
Polymarket odds fell 6.5pp to 7%, likely on AP-reported Iranian directives to tankers and no clear de‑escalation signals, cutting confidence the ≥60-ship 7‑day average will be hit before July 15.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 2, 2026
Hormuz “40+ ships in a day” market jumps to 99.9% on ceasefire-enabled traffic signals
Pricing surged 12.4 pp to 99.9%, likely reflecting signals that Strait of Hormuz transits resumed under a fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire and traders’ confidence in late‑June counts.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 25, 2026
US–Iran “Final Nuclear Deal” odds fall; funding request tied to Iran conflict outweighs IAEA inspection signal
The market slipped 4.5pp to 24% over 24h, likely on the White House’s June 24 request for $87.6B including costs tied to a conflict with Iran, which outweighed IAEA comments on interim inspections.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 15, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension market spikes to 99.9% after NPR reports announced deal; late-day diplomacy cited
The market jumped ~75 pp to 99.9% by the June 14 deadline, likely on NPR’s report of a U.S.–Iran deal and AP’s same-day coverage of Qatari mediators finalizing terms in Tehran.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 12, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds jump to 70% after Trump signals deal "soon" and halts further strikes
Polymarket odds for a US-announced Iran ceasefire extension by June 30 spiked to 70% (+35.5pp), likely on Trump’s June 11 comment a deal is coming “soon” and a pause in further strikes.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 11, 2026
‘Project Freedom’ odds surge to 95% on US/Iran operations signals and allied statements
Polymarket odds that Trump will restart Project Freedom by June 30 spiked ~83pp to 95%, likely on US government signaling of planned Iran operations and allied Iran-related statements on June 10.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 5, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds plunge; repricing on IAEA monitoring warning and no US signal
Polymarket odds for a US-announced Iran ceasefire extension by June 7 fell 5.5pp to 6%, likely on adverse Iran nuclear oversight news and the absence of any qualifying US announcement as the deadline nears.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 4, 2026
Polymarket odds of Israel extending Lebanon ceasefire plunge; move follows UK UN warning and reports of fresh Israeli strikes
Contract fell 37.5pp to 46% over 24h, likely on reports of new Israeli strikes near Beirut and a UK statement at the UN warning Blue Line escalation risks undermining ceasefire talks.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 3, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds rebound ~6pp; repricing tracks weaker ceasefire bets despite soft oil
The market rose to 26.5% (+6.4pp, 24h), likely reflecting repricing alongside falling ceasefire/diplomacy odds, while broader energy and volatility gauges did not confirm.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 2, 2026
Hormuz traffic-normalization odds fall sharply on U.S. strikes near strait and EU supply-risk signals
The market fell 7.5pp to 22% in 24h, likely on U.S. strikes near Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz and EU warnings on Middle East energy supply risks, alongside a narrowing June 30 deadline.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 1, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds drop sharply on lack of US announcement and Lebanon fighting
Polymarket odds for a US-announced Iran ceasefire extension by June 7 fell 8.5pp to 25%, likely on the absence of any qualifying US statement and AP reporting that fighting in Lebanon complicates an Iran-related deal.
Polymarket Analysis • May 31, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds plunge as no qualifying US announcement emerges ahead of May 31
Polymarket odds for a US-announced Iran ceasefire extension fell 18.5pp in 24h to 8%, likely on the absence of any qualifying US government statement and fresh reporting of regional enforcement actions.
Polymarket Analysis • May 29, 2026
US–Iran “permanent peace” odds drop sharply on reports of new strikes and cautious US stance
Polymarket probability for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 7 fell 7.5pp to 21% in 24h, likely reflecting reports of reciprocal strikes and US statements of not rushing an agreement, with EU officials flagging continued Middle East t…
Polymarket Analysis • May 28, 2026
Polymarket: Odds of U.S.-announced Iran ceasefire extension by May 31 fall on lack of official signal
Price fell 11pp to 26% over 24h, likely reflecting no qualifying U.S. announcement as the May 31 deadline approaches, despite reports of Cabinet-level talks.
Polymarket Analysis • May 27, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds plunge on May 26 amid US strikes reports and no qualifying US statement
Polymarket odds fell 16pp to ~1.5% as traders reacted to reports of US strikes in Iran and the absence of a qualifying US ceasefire-extension announcement before the May 26 deadline.
Polymarket Analysis • May 26, 2026
Iran ceasefire-through-May-31 odds plunge as late-May breakdown risk gets priced across adjacent contracts
The market fell ~79 pp in 24h to 2.8%, likely linked to synchronized selloffs in nearer-dated ceasefire contracts and news framing negotiations as uncertain.
Polymarket Analysis • May 25, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds plunge as May 26 deadline nears and reports focus on ceasefire steps
Polymarket’s “US × Iran permanent peace by May 26, 2026” fell 54pp to 9%, likely on the imminent deadline, reporting that centers on ceasefire de-escalation (not a permanent deal), and no official US/Iran confirmation.
Polymarket Analysis • May 24, 2026
US–Iran peace-deal odds surge to 69% on reports of a ‘largely negotiated’ framework and ceasefire stability
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by May 31 spiked ~58pp to 69%, likely on Trump’s claim a deal is “largely negotiated” and AP reporting of progress in talks, with oil prices falling.
Polymarket Analysis • May 23, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds surge to 98% amid official Hormuz warnings and unresolved talks
Pricing for “Iran closes its airspace by May 24?” spiked ~83 pp to ~98%, likely on official warnings about Strait of Hormuz disruptions and continued uncertainty in Iran talks.
Polymarket Analysis • May 22, 2026
Iran ceasefire market jumps to 99.7% as window nears close with no qualifying U.S. strike reports
Yes odds rose 2.3pp on the day (to 99.7%) as the May 21 (ET) window closed without credible reporting of a U.S. kinetic strike on Iranian soil; congressional debate focused on oversight, not action.
Polymarket Analysis • May 20, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 49% on official alarms over Strait of Hormuz disruptions
Polymarket odds for an Iran airspace closure by May 31 surged 11.5pp to 49% in 24 hours, likely reacting to UK/EU warnings on Hormuz disruptions and related fuel risks.
Polymarket Analysis • May 20, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 34% on official warnings over Strait of Hormuz disruption
Polymarket odds for a major Iranian airspace closure by May 24 rose 9.5pp to 34% in 24h, likely on UK/EU warnings about Hormuz disruptions and new signs of regional strain.
Polymarket Analysis • May 19, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds jump after reported US strike cancellation; de‑escalation signal leads
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 rose 10.5pp to 36% over 24h, likely on AP’s report that President Trump called off a planned strike on Iran at Gulf allies’ request.
Polymarket Analysis • May 18, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 30% on Hormuz security statements and regional incident flow
Pricing for a May 24 Iranian airspace closure rose to 30%, likely reflecting official statements on a multinational Hormuz mission and fresh regional security reports.
Polymarket Analysis • May 17, 2026
US–Iran permanent peace odds plunge amid CENTCOM war update and Iranian warning on stalled talks
The market fell 6.5pp on the day (25pp on the week) as official signals emphasized ongoing hostilities and limited diplomatic traction, lowering near‑term odds of a permanent peace deal.
Polymarket Analysis • May 15, 2026
Israel–Syria security deal odds bounce intraday but remain lower w/w amid mixed regional signals and firmer oil
Pricing for an Israel–Syria security agreement ticked up 2.5pp to 12% over 24h, but is still 2pp lower on the week. The repricing likely reflects mixed regional security signals and a firmer oil backdrop.
Polymarket Analysis • May 14, 2026
US–Iran permanent peace odds fall; UK sanctions and Hormuz mission weigh on deal prospects
The market fell 3.5pp to 13% in 24h (−16pp w/w), likely reflecting UK sanctions on Iranian targets and London’s new role in a Strait of Hormuz security mission, which undercut near‑term prospects for a formal deal.
Polymarket Analysis • May 13, 2026
Hezbollah disarm odds jump on heavy trading despite hardline rhetoric in fresh reports
The market’s Yes probability rose ~6.5pp to 19% in 24 hours, likely on concentrated buying and liquidity, even as same-day reports showed Hezbollah hardening its stance on talks with Israel.
Polymarket Analysis • May 11, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds fall 11.5pp after US rejects Iranian reply; hardline US posture underscored
Polymarket probability for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 fell 11.5pp to 39%, likely on reports that President Trump rejected Iran’s latest ceasefire response and on firm US policy signals.
Polymarket Analysis • May 9, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ by May 11 odds fall; US stance, renewed strikes weigh on near‑term window
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by May 11 slid 3.5pp to 6% in 24h, likely on firm US government messaging about defensive naval operations and sanctions plus reports of fresh regional attacks.
Polymarket Analysis • May 5, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 53% on Hormuz escalation signals and EU energy-security focus
Polymarket odds for an Iran-ordered airspace closure by May 31 rose 14.5 pp to 53% today, likely on reports of renewed Hormuz tensions and EU attention to Middle East energy security.
Polymarket Analysis • May 4, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds fall sharply; slight uptick in Iran–US deal markets and steady oil backdrop
Pricing for an Iran airspace closure by May 8 dropped ~2.5pp to 12% over 24h, likely reflecting modest de-escalation cues in related Iran–US diplomacy markets and calm macro risk gauges.
Polymarket Analysis • May 1, 2026
US–Iran “permanent peace deal” odds drop sharply on hawkish signals and US planning
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 fell 10.5pp to 30%, likely on US State Department comments flagging major hurdles, Iran’s hardline rhetoric, and reports of new US military options.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 30, 2026
Odds of Trump announcing Hormuz blockade lift by May 31 plunge after US signals blockade remains conditional
Price fell 14pp to 44% as traders reacted to April 27 US State Department remarks framing the Hormuz blockade as ongoing and conditional, with no clear signal of an imminent lift.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 29, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace deal’ odds tick up after sharp weekly selloff; US signals “better” Iranian paper but core disputes persist
Odds rose to 30% (+2.5pp, 24h) but are down 23pp over 7 days, likely reflecting US statements of a temporary ceasefire and unresolved disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 28, 2026
US–Iran peace-deal odds plunge on UN clash and stalled talks; extreme weekly repricing
The market fell 7.5pp to 43% in 24h (−26.5pp in 7d), likely on AP-reported U.S.–Iran clashes at the UN NPT review and talks “in flux,” with a UK UNSC statement underscoring ongoing security risks.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 27, 2026
Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire extension odds bounce 9pp into deadline, but remain 32pp lower on week amid de‑escalation doubts
The market for an Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire extension rose to 28% (+9pp/24h) as the April 26 deadline approached, but is still down 32pp on the week, likely reflecting weaker de‑escalation signals and broader risk repricing.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 25, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds jump on Pakistan-brokered talks push and US ceasefire extension reports
Pricing surged toward coin‑flip, likely on AP reports of Pakistan mediating US–Iran talks and Trump announcing a US ceasefire extension at Islamabad’s request.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 24, 2026
US–Iran diplomatic meeting odds plunge on reports of talks “in limbo” and no near‑term urgency
Probability dropped 29pp to 25% in 24h, likely on reports that U.S.–Iran talks remain in limbo, the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and the ceasefire was extended with “no time pressure.”
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 22, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds plunge after reported failed Pakistan talks; maritime security posture hardens
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran in‑person diplomatic meeting by Apr 30 fell ~31pp to 57%, likely on reports the sides failed to meet in Pakistan and on stepped‑up maritime security actions.