Polymarket Topic Hub
Conflict Polymarket Briefs
Markets tied to military escalation, ceasefire risk, and regional security flashpoints.
36 Topic Results
Topic matching combines canonical topic keywords with optional Sanity topic synonyms.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 16, 2026
Iran–Oman Hormuz agreement odds rebound to 37% after a 47pp weekly slide amid security incidents and official censure
Pricing recovered 3pp in 24h to 37% but is down 47pp over 7d, likely reflecting fresh Hormuz incident reports and mid‑August government statements critical of Iran, with no qualifying deal announcements evident.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 15, 2026
Odds of US announcing end of Iranian blockade by Sept 30 drop sharply on stalled talks and allied pressure signals
The market fell 14.5pp to 41% over 24h, likely on reports of stalled US–Iran diplomacy and coordinated allied statements criticizing Iran, reducing expectations of a near-term US announcement to lift the blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 14, 2026
Venezuela–Israel recognition odds plunge 45pp; repricing follows fresh Mideast security signals and UK/EP statements
Polymarket odds that Venezuela will recognize Israel by Dec 31, 2026 fell 45pp to 12% in 24h, likely on heightened regional security signals and official statements that reduced expectations for near-term diplomatic shifts.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 10, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade by Sept 30 drop 17pp on lack of official signal
The market fell to 64% (−17pp, 24h), likely reflecting the absence of any qualifying U.S. announcement ending or suspending the Iran naval blockade, with declines echoed in nearer-dated markets.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 8, 2026
Odds jump for US announcing end of Iran blockade by Aug 31; move tracks AP report and timeline shift
Probability rose 9.5 pp to 78%, likely on fresh reporting about potential Iran deal mechanics and a trader shift toward a mid/late‑August announcement window.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 6, 2026
Odds of Iran imposing Hormuz transit fees drop sharply on talk of reopening deal; extreme downward repricing
The market fell 11pp to 10% in 24h, likely on AP-reported comments about a possible deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allied posture signals, prompting an extreme de-escalation repricing.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 5, 2026
‘End of Iranian blockade by Aug 15?’ jumps to 63% on AP report of Iran–Oman strait talks
The market rose 21.5pp to 63% in 24h, likely on an AP report that Iran and Oman made progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting odds of a U.S. announcement ending the blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 3, 2026
Odds surge for US to announce end of Iranian blockade, driven by Aug 2 de-escalation signals
Price jumped 29.5pp to 47% in 24h, likely on Aug 2 remarks about pausing Iran strikes and State Department comments about a potential “deal on the straits.”
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 2, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds rise to 27% amid Iran strike rhetoric and official security statements
Odds that Israel will close its airspace by Aug 15 rose to 27% (+2.5pp/24h), likely on heightened regional security signals including Iran-related rhetoric and government statements on Israel-Palestine.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 1, 2026
Hamas disarmament odds fall 28pp as traders parse deal details after French, AP/NPR announcements
Polymarket’s probability for a Hamas disarmament announcement by Dec 31, 2026 dropped 28pp to 64% in 24h, likely on implementation doubts despite a French MFA notice and AP/NPR reports of a deal.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 31, 2026
US–Iran ‘final deal’ odds fall sharply; conflict headlines and no official progress
Odds for a US–Iran final nuclear deal by Aug 31, 2026 fell 2.2pp to 3.3% over 24h, likely on reports of widening Iran-linked conflict and the absence of new official steps toward a signed or formally adopted agreement.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 30, 2026
U.S. anti-cartel abroad market spikes to 90.6% on deadline repricing; no USG confirmation in cited sources
Probability jumped 61pp to 90.6% in 24h, an extreme move likely driven by last‑minute repricing ahead of the July 31 contract deadline; no relevant U.S. government confirmation appears in the provided sources.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 28, 2026
US–Iran halt odds surge to 95% on reported attack pause and mediator progress
Polymarket odds for a US announcement halting offensive operations against Iran jumped ~54 points to 95.6%, likely on reports of a US–Iran pause in attacks and mediator-led de‑escalation talks.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 27, 2026
Bab el‑Mandeb ‘closure’ odds fall sharply; EU supply assurance and US–Iran pause in strikes cited
The market dropped 3pp to 15% on the day and 9.5pp on the week, likely reflecting EU assurances of no immediate oil supply risk and a reported US–Iran pause in strikes.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 26, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds drop sharply; de-escalation signals and benign supply readout weigh on risk
Odds that Israel will order a major airspace closure fell 9.5 pp to 36% over 24h, likely reflecting reports of no new U.S. strikes on Iran and an EU assessment of no immediate oil-supply concerns.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 25, 2026
Trump–Netanyahu meeting odds surge to 90% on White House scheduling signal and intensifying Iran conflict
The market jumped 62pp to 90%, likely on the White House confirming a Trump–Zelenskyy meeting next week and U.S. government reports of continued strikes on Iran that concentrate near‑term diplomacy.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 24, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds surge to 35% on extreme weekly repricing amid Iran-war headlines and EU policy signals
Polymarket odds that Israel closes its airspace by July 31 jumped 6.5pp to 35%, likely reflecting concentrated Iran-war news and a flurry of European government statements on Israel this week.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 23, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds jump to 27% on fresh Iran–Israel escalation reports
The market rose 6.5pp to 27% in 24h, likely reacting to AP reports on July 22 of Iranian strikes near Israel and new U.S. strikes, which raised perceived closure risk.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 22, 2026
Syrskyi-out market spikes to 99.8% after reports of his dismissal; Drapatyi named as replacement
The contract surged 31.45 pp to 99.8% after AP and NPR reported on July 21 that President Zelenskyy dismissed Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi and appointed Mykhailo Drapatyi as commander-in-chief.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 19, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei end-2026 odds fall; U.S.–Iran escalation and UK FCDO censure likely drivers
Probability that Mojtaba Khamenei is Iran’s de facto head of state at end-2026 fell 4.15 pp to 73.2%, likely on July 18 reports of U.S.–Iran strikes and the UK’s July 14 IRGC-QF censure.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 18, 2026
U.S.–Iran invasion market jumps to 29% on escalatory strikes; CENTCOM confirms new Iran strikes
Probability rose 6pp to 29% in 24h, likely on reports of U.S. strikes inside Iran and Iranian retaliation, reinforced by a U.S. Central Command statement confirming new strike waves.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 15, 2026
US Hormuz-fee odds plunge; traders focus on blockade signals and Hill pushback
Polymarket odds that the US will collect Hormuz transit/protection fees by Dec 31, 2026 fell 26pp to 9%, likely reflecting emphasis on blockade/strikes over fee programs and Senate Democrats’ block of a defense bill.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 14, 2026
US–Iran ‘Final Deal’ odds fall sharply after US strikes and E3 condemnation
Probability dropped 5.5 pp on the day (to 30%) and 15.5 pp on the week, likely as traders reacted to new US CENTCOM strikes and firm E3/UK messaging on Iranian attacks.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 11, 2026
US–Iran blockade odds drop 7.5pp; UK and Australia urge de‑escalation amid fresh strikes
Polymarket’s “US blockade of Iran by Dec 31” fell to 41% (-7.5pp in 24h), likely on July 10 allied government calls for de-escalation that tempered a week of escalation-driven gains.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 8, 2026
Hormuz traffic-normalization odds plunge on tanker attack reports and UK–Iran diplomatic flare-up
Odds fell 4.5pp in 24h and 25.5pp in 7d, likely on reports of a tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz and fresh UK diplomatic action toward Iran.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 5, 2026
Kostyantynivka capture odds surge; claim–counterclaim cycle likely drove an extreme repricing
Polymarket odds that Russia captures Kostyantynivka by Sep 30, 2026 jumped 15pp to 89%, likely on fresh Russian capture claims and high-profile Ukrainian denials drawing trader focus.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 3, 2026
Strait of Hormuz ‘normal by July 15’ odds tumble after Iranian tanker routing warning
Polymarket odds fell 6.5pp to 7%, likely on AP-reported Iranian directives to tankers and no clear de‑escalation signals, cutting confidence the ≥60-ship 7‑day average will be hit before July 15.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 2, 2026
Hormuz “40+ ships in a day” market jumps to 99.9% on ceasefire-enabled traffic signals
Pricing surged 12.4 pp to 99.9%, likely reflecting signals that Strait of Hormuz transits resumed under a fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire and traders’ confidence in late‑June counts.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 25, 2026
US–Iran “Final Nuclear Deal” odds fall; funding request tied to Iran conflict outweighs IAEA inspection signal
The market slipped 4.5pp to 24% over 24h, likely on the White House’s June 24 request for $87.6B including costs tied to a conflict with Iran, which outweighed IAEA comments on interim inspections.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 15, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension market spikes to 99.9% after NPR reports announced deal; late-day diplomacy cited
The market jumped ~75 pp to 99.9% by the June 14 deadline, likely on NPR’s report of a U.S.–Iran deal and AP’s same-day coverage of Qatari mediators finalizing terms in Tehran.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 12, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds jump to 70% after Trump signals deal "soon" and halts further strikes
Polymarket odds for a US-announced Iran ceasefire extension by June 30 spiked to 70% (+35.5pp), likely on Trump’s June 11 comment a deal is coming “soon” and a pause in further strikes.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 11, 2026
‘Project Freedom’ odds surge to 95% on US/Iran operations signals and allied statements
Polymarket odds that Trump will restart Project Freedom by June 30 spiked ~83pp to 95%, likely on US government signaling of planned Iran operations and allied Iran-related statements on June 10.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 5, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds plunge; repricing on IAEA monitoring warning and no US signal
Polymarket odds for a US-announced Iran ceasefire extension by June 7 fell 5.5pp to 6%, likely on adverse Iran nuclear oversight news and the absence of any qualifying US announcement as the deadline nears.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 4, 2026
Polymarket odds of Israel extending Lebanon ceasefire plunge; move follows UK UN warning and reports of fresh Israeli strikes
Contract fell 37.5pp to 46% over 24h, likely on reports of new Israeli strikes near Beirut and a UK statement at the UN warning Blue Line escalation risks undermining ceasefire talks.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 3, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds rebound ~6pp; repricing tracks weaker ceasefire bets despite soft oil
The market rose to 26.5% (+6.4pp, 24h), likely reflecting repricing alongside falling ceasefire/diplomacy odds, while broader energy and volatility gauges did not confirm.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 2, 2026
Hormuz traffic-normalization odds fall sharply on U.S. strikes near strait and EU supply-risk signals
The market fell 7.5pp to 22% in 24h, likely on U.S. strikes near Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz and EU warnings on Middle East energy supply risks, alongside a narrowing June 30 deadline.