Polymarket Topic Hub
Conflict Polymarket Briefs
Markets tied to military escalation, ceasefire risk, and regional security flashpoints.
28 Topic Results
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Polymarket Analysis • Apr 6, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire (by Apr 15) jumps to 12% on US signals operations are “near completion”
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 15 rose 6.5pp to 12% in 24h, apparently reacting to US government statements that objectives in Iran are nearing completion and fresh reports on active operations.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 5, 2026
‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31?’ jumps to 94% on official US war updates and reports of downed jet over Iran
Probability rose 27.5pp over 7 days to 94%, likely on U.S. government statements of ongoing operations in Iran and reporting on a downed U.S. aircraft and missing aircrew on Iranian soil.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 4, 2026
Polymarket odds for 'US forces enter Iran by Apr 30' surge to 85% on US war statements and downed jet report
Contract repriced sharply higher, likely on official U.S. briefings about ongoing operations in Iran and news a U.S. jet went down over Iran, tightening the window to April 30.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 3, 2026
US–Iran Apr 30 ceasefire odds plunge after US officials signal operations continue
Polymarket odds of a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 fell 15.5pp to 23%, likely on April 1–2 US government statements stressing ongoing operations and no immediate truce.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 2, 2026
Polymarket: ‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ dips; de‑escalation signals and official timelines weigh
The market slid ~1.5pp to 65% over 24h, likely reflecting U.S. government messaging that objectives are near and “weeks, not months” from completion, plus de‑escalation cues flagged by AP.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 1, 2026
“US forces enter Iran by Apr 30?” drops 12pp; defensive US moves and EU oil-security focus cool near-term incursion odds
The market fell to 58% (−12pp, 24h), likely as traders digested AP reporting that fresh U.S. deployments are framed as deterrent and an EU Commission call prioritized energy security over escalation.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 30, 2026
Polymarket: ‘US forces enter Iran by April 30?’ surges to 71% on official conflict updates and G7 focus
The contract jumped to 71%, likely on coordinated G7 statements, a U.S. operational update, and UK reporting of active air-defense actions, all pointing to elevated near-term conflict risk.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 29, 2026
Polymarket ‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ surges; official G7 and US/UK defense signals lift perceived risk
Pricing for ‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ moved sharply higher, likely on coordinated G7 messaging on Iran and fresh US/UK operational updates indicating sustained regional hostilities.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 29, 2026
Odds of US forces entering Iran by Mar 31 drop sharply as G7 signals restraint, no ground-entry indications
Polymarket pricing fell 6pp to 11% over 24h, likely on G7 statements emphasizing minimizing escalation and the absence of evidence that U.S. troops will cross into Iran before the Mar 31 deadline.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 28, 2026
Odds of oil settling ≥$100 by March 31 spike on WTI >$100 and EU warnings on Hormuz risk
Polymarket odds jumped 44pp to 76% after WTI printed above $100 and EU parliamentary queries flagged Strait of Hormuz disruption and war-risk insurance concerns.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 27, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 slips ~5pp; Hormuz transit move and official statements point away from de-escalation
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 fell 4.5pp to 45%, likely on reports of Iran tightening Strait of Hormuz transit rules and government statements focused on conflict rather than ceasefire.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire (by Apr 15) drops 8.5pp as positions harden; UK UNHRC statements underscore tensions
The Apr 15 US–Iran ceasefire market fell to 29% (−8.5pp, 24h), likely on reports of firmer stances and Hormuz friction, alongside UK statements at the UNHRC condemning Iranian aggression.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
Odds of a US–Iran ceasefire by March 31 fall to 13% amid hardened stances and Hormuz tensions
Polymarket’s probability for a US–Iran ceasefire by March 31 dropped 7pp to 13%, likely reflecting reports of hardened positions, ongoing regional strikes, and Strait of Hormuz pressure.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
Odds Trump announces end of Iran operations by Mar 31 drop sharply amid signs of continued campaign and new troop deployments
The market fell 7.5pp to 13%, likely reflecting reports of sustained U.S. strike tempo and fresh troop deployments that cut the odds of an imminent “end of operations” announcement.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 25, 2026
‘US forces enter Iran by Mar 31’ odds rebound; sharp daily uptick on deployment signals as deadline nears
Implied odds rose 4.5pp to 20% in 24h, likely on fresh Pentagon deployment headlines and end‑March timing, even as the 7‑day trend remains lower.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 25, 2026
Israel–Lebanon ground offensive odds surge to 99.9% amid Iran war signals and Beirut’s Iran envoy expulsion
Over the past week, market odds jumped 25 points to 99.9%, likely reflecting traders pricing in near‑term action as Israel’s war with Iran continues and Lebanon expels Iran’s ambassador.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 24, 2026
Odds that CME Crude (CL) settles at $100 by Mar 31 plunge on de-escalation headlines and WTI near $89
The market’s probability dropped sharply to 38% as de-escalation talk around the U.S.–Iran conflict eased oil prices, with WTI around $89 reducing the path to a $100 month-end settlement.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 23, 2026
Israel–Lebanon ground offensive odds surge to 98.7% amid late-window repricing and regional escalation signals
The market’s probability for a major Israeli ground offensive in Lebanon by Mar 31, 2026 jumped about 20pp this week to 98.7%, likely reflecting late-window repricing and broader escalation signals.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 23, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 15: probability jumps to 30% amid escalation headlines and external pressure
The US–Iran ceasefire-by-Apr-15 market rose 5.5pp to 30% in 24h, likely reflecting trader positioning after high-profile escalation headlines and signs of international pressure.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 23, 2026
Iranian regime-fall odds drift lower over 7 days amid external-conflict headlines
Pricing for the Iranian regime to fall by June 30, 2026 eased to 24%, down 4.5pp on the week, as traders appeared to refocus on external confrontation news rather than domestic collapse signals.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 22, 2026
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Odds rebound on DoD strike update, conflict persists
The market ticked up ~3.5pp to 21% in 24h—an extreme daily move—likely reacting to official updates on ongoing U.S. operations and reporting that the war shows no near-term end.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 21, 2026
Odds of US forces entering Iran by Dec 31 slip; traders weigh ‘winding down’ signals
The market eased 1.5pp on the day and 4.5pp on the week to 67%, likely reflecting reports the U.S. may “wind down” operations even as strikes on Iran continue.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 21, 2026
Taiwan invasion odds tick down slightly as risk focus shifts to Iran conflict
The market eased 0.2pp to 10.5% in the past 24h, a normal move that appears linked to attention centering on the Iran war and broader risk tone, with no new Taiwan-specific catalysts.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 21, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Mar 31 slides over the week as conflict signals persist
Odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Mar 31 fell 8.5 pp over seven days to 8%, likely reflecting continued hostilities, fresh deployments, and no official signs of talks as the deadline nears.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 20, 2026
Odds of Iranian regime falling by Mar 31 drop sharply as deadline nears amid ongoing war
The market’s probability fell over the past week to 2.3%, an extreme 7‑day downside move, likely reflecting the contract’s imminent March 31 deadline despite continued war headlines.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 20, 2026
Odds of US forces entering Iran by Mar 31 plunge over the week as traders push risk into April
The market fell about 17pp over the past week to 18%, likely reflecting the shrinking March window and cross-market pricing that places higher odds on an April entry.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 20, 2026
Probability of Netanyahu Leaving Office by March 31 Drops Amid Regional Tensions
The market probability that Netanyahu will be out by March 31 declined by 5.8 percentage points over the past week, likely reflecting ongoing regional conflict and political stability signals.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 20, 2026
Probability of Iranian Regime Falling by June 30, 2026, Declines Amid Rising Regional Conflict
The market probability for the Iranian regime falling by June 30, 2026, decreased by 1.5 percentage points over 24 hours, likely reflecting escalating military tensions and ongoing conflict in the region.