Odds Analysis

GPS Metrics Guide

GPS metrics are internal scoring indicators used in government brief source analysis. They are intended to improve structure and comparability, while remaining interpretable for readers.

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Scale

Scores are normalized to a 0–1 output range for display, ranking, and comparison.

0.00 indicates very low signal for the given metric.

0.50 indicates a mid-level / mixed signal.

1.00 indicates very strong signal for the given metric.

Substantive

Measures how materially important an announcement is for policy, state action, or geopolitical consequences.

Substantive is intended to separate low-impact institutional routine from high-impact state decisions.

• Higher values indicate content with stronger real-world impact and decision significance.

• Lower values indicate routine, ceremonial, procedural, or low-impact institutional activity.

Sentiment

Measures whether the underlying development is positive, negative, or neutral for the welfare of affected people, communities, or living beings.

Sentiment is designed to capture real-world welfare valence, not the emotional tone, political framing, market reaction, or importance of the writing.

• Higher values indicate realized welfare benefits such as relief, restored access, improved safety, recovery, or rights protection.

• Lower values indicate realized welfare harms such as death, injury, displacement, repression, disrupted services, essential-cost pressure, or material deprivation.

• Middle values indicate neutral, procedural, rhetorical, speculative, unclear, or mixed developments without a dominant realized welfare effect.

Virality

Measures reactive spread potential, or how likely a development is to trigger outsized sharing and public commentary beyond its core audience.

Virality isolates emotional activation, conflict, surprise, and ease of retelling rather than policy importance or analytical depth.

• Higher values indicate stronger cross-audience shareability and public reaction energy.

• Lower values indicate informational or niche content with limited spread momentum.

Policy Impact

Measures the degree of real institutional change described, from commentary and signaling to binding decisions and active implementation.

Policy Impact is designed to distinguish words from actions by scoring whether policy machinery is merely discussed, formally decided, or already producing material effects.

• Higher values indicate enacted and implemented institutional actions with direct real-world effect.

• Lower values indicate rhetoric, intent signaling, or early-stage proposals without binding execution.

Persistence

Measures how long a development is expected to keep shaping decisions, constraints, or narratives after publication.

Persistence separates short-lived events from durable structural shifts by scoring expected relevance horizon, not current drama.

• Higher values indicate sustained or structural effects that continue to influence future outcomes for months or years.

• Lower values indicate self-contained events with limited follow-through and short-lived relevance.

Market Sensitivity

Measures how likely a development is to matter for tradable markets through a concrete transmission channel.

Market Sensitivity is intended to capture actionable exposure for investors by identifying direct links to rates, FX, commodities, regulation, trade, or sector earnings.

• Higher values indicate clearer and broader market transmission mechanisms likely to affect positioning.

• Lower values indicate weak, indirect, or purely contextual links to financial pricing.

Reliability Note

Metrics are indicators, not absolute truth labels.

GPS metrics are continuously under development and improvement. Method updates, model upgrades, and changing data quality can shift score behavior over time.

Use these metrics as decision-support signals alongside source context, not as standalone certainty claims.