Polymarket Topic Hub
Energy Polymarket Briefs
Oil and gas markets where geopolitics changes probability and pricing expectations.
37 Topic Results
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Polymarket Analysis • May 21, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds plunge into low single digits as May 21 deadline nears; UK/EU signals stress Hormuz reopening
Polymarket odds that Iran closes its airspace by May 21 fell 11.6 pp to 3.9%. The drop likely reflects the looming deadline without corroborating Iranian actions and government focus on reopening Hormuz, not aviation shutdowns.
Polymarket Analysis • May 20, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 49% on official alarms over Strait of Hormuz disruptions
Polymarket odds for an Iran airspace closure by May 31 surged 11.5pp to 49% in 24 hours, likely reacting to UK/EU warnings on Hormuz disruptions and related fuel risks.
Polymarket Analysis • May 20, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 34% on official warnings over Strait of Hormuz disruption
Polymarket odds for a major Iranian airspace closure by May 24 rose 9.5pp to 34% in 24h, likely on UK/EU warnings about Hormuz disruptions and new signs of regional strain.
Polymarket Analysis • May 19, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds jump after reported US strike cancellation; de‑escalation signal leads
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 rose 10.5pp to 36% over 24h, likely on AP’s report that President Trump called off a planned strike on Iran at Gulf allies’ request.
Polymarket Analysis • May 15, 2026
Israel–Syria security deal odds bounce intraday but remain lower w/w amid mixed regional signals and firmer oil
Pricing for an Israel–Syria security agreement ticked up 2.5pp to 12% over 24h, but is still 2pp lower on the week. The repricing likely reflects mixed regional security signals and a firmer oil backdrop.
Polymarket Analysis • May 7, 2026
Hormuz ‘normal by end‑May’ odds jump on U.S. escort mission signals and softer oil
Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic hitting IMF Portwatch’s 60-transit 7DMA by May 31 rose 11.5 pp to 29%, likely on U.S. ‘Project Freedom’ escort updates and easing oil risk.
Polymarket Analysis • May 5, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 53% on Hormuz escalation signals and EU energy-security focus
Polymarket odds for an Iran-ordered airspace closure by May 31 rose 14.5 pp to 53% today, likely on reports of renewed Hormuz tensions and EU attention to Middle East energy security.
Polymarket Analysis • May 4, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds fall sharply; slight uptick in Iran–US deal markets and steady oil backdrop
Pricing for an Iran airspace closure by May 8 dropped ~2.5pp to 12% over 24h, likely reflecting modest de-escalation cues in related Iran–US diplomacy markets and calm macro risk gauges.
Polymarket Analysis • May 2, 2026
Odds of a Trump announcement lifting the Hormuz blockade fall; US signals and oil spike point to continued pressure
The market fell 4.5pp to 15%, likely reflecting US government messaging that the blockade remains in place and reports of a potential extension, reducing odds of a near-term lift.
Polymarket Analysis • May 1, 2026
US–Iran “permanent peace deal” odds drop sharply on hawkish signals and US planning
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 fell 10.5pp to 30%, likely on US State Department comments flagging major hurdles, Iran’s hardline rhetoric, and reports of new US military options.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 30, 2026
Odds of Trump announcing Hormuz blockade lift by May 31 plunge after US signals blockade remains conditional
Price fell 14pp to 44% as traders reacted to April 27 US State Department remarks framing the Hormuz blockade as ongoing and conditional, with no clear signal of an imminent lift.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 29, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace deal’ odds tick up after sharp weekly selloff; US signals “better” Iranian paper but core disputes persist
Odds rose to 30% (+2.5pp, 24h) but are down 23pp over 7 days, likely reflecting US statements of a temporary ceasefire and unresolved disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 28, 2026
Hormuz blockade-lift odds crash into single digits as U.S. officials signal policy unchanged and deadline looms
Polymarket odds that Trump will announce lifting the U.S. Strait of Hormuz blockade by Apr 30 fell to 5% (−7.5pp on the day), likely due to the imminent deadline and U.S. statements indicating the blockade remains in place.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 28, 2026
US–Iran peace-deal odds plunge on UN clash and stalled talks; extreme weekly repricing
The market fell 7.5pp to 43% in 24h (−26.5pp in 7d), likely on AP-reported U.S.–Iran clashes at the UN NPT review and talks “in flux,” with a UK UNSC statement underscoring ongoing security risks.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 23, 2026
Hormuz blockade-lift odds crash as US enforcement continues and UK leads reopening planning
Polymarket odds fell 17.5pp to 6% as official signals pointed to the blockade remaining in force—U.S. enforcement (Apr 20) and a UK-led planning conference (Apr 21) suggest no imminent lift.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 22, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds plunge after reported failed Pakistan talks; maritime security posture hardens
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran in‑person diplomatic meeting by Apr 30 fell ~31pp to 57%, likely on reports the sides failed to meet in Pakistan and on stepped‑up maritime security actions.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 22, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds plunge on lack of joint confirmation and fresh Hormuz risks
The market fell 35pp to 24% over 24h, likely on the absence of a mutually confirmed US–Iran extension before the Apr 22 deadline and new Hormuz security incidents.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 21, 2026
Strait of Hormuz normalization odds slump on US blockade enforcement and ceasefire uncertainty
Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April fell 12.5pp to 17%, likely on a US announcement of blockade enforcement and reports that a US–Iran ceasefire extension faces obstacles.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 18, 2026
Hormuz “normal traffic by Apr 30” odds surge on Iran’s ‘open’ declaration and UK/EU pressure
Yes-probability jumped after Iran said the Strait is “completely open” during a ceasefire, and UK/EU statements pressed for restoring safe commercial passage.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 17, 2026
US–Iran “permanent peace” odds surge; mediation push and regional ceasefire headlines in focus
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by Apr 30, 2026 rose to 41% (+3.5pp/24h; +21.5pp/7d), likely on reports of active mediation to extend a ceasefire and broader regional de‑escalation signals.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 15, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace deal’ odds jump on renewed-talks reports; oil and risk gauges ease
Polymarket odds rose to 39% after reports of possible US–Iran talks resuming in Islamabad, with risk assets firmer and oil softer on de‑escalation hopes.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 14, 2026
Israel–Iran strike odds plunge 29pp as official signals stress maritime security and ceasefire talks
Pricing for an Israeli strike on Iranian soil by Apr 21 fell 29pp to 22%, likely on Apr 13 government signals prioritizing Hormuz mine‑clearing and comments on Iran–US ceasefire sincerity.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 12, 2026
Strait of Hormuz ‘normal traffic by Apr 30’ odds jump; de-escalation signals and EU energy coordination cited
The market’s Yes probability rose 11.5pp to 33% in 24h, likely on de-escalation signals, EU oil/gas coordination, and softer energy-risk pricing, despite mine-clearance uncertainty.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 10, 2026
‘April 9’ Iran strike-cessation market surges to 97% on US–Iran ceasefire signals
The Polymarket contract on military action against Iran ending April 9 jumped ~57pp to 97%, likely on Apr 8 government ceasefire statements and an Apr 9 truce report.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 9, 2026
Hormuz “normal traffic” odds plunge as shippers stay cautious despite ceasefire and policy noise
The market fell 35pp to 27%, likely on reports of continued carrier caution and new policy uncertainty (Iran tolls), despite official ceasefire signals and facilitation plans.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 8, 2026
U.S.–Iran invasion odds plunge after 2-week ceasefire; UK confirms truce, oil retreats
Polymarket odds that the U.S. will invade Iran before 2027 fell 32.5 points to 28%, likely on the two-week ceasefire taking effect and confirmed by the UK government, alongside softer oil and risk-on macro moves.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 7, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 7 surges to 74% as 8 p.m. ET ultimatum nears; cross-contracts reprice higher
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 7 spiked ~72 pp to 74%, likely on deadline-focused positioning around Trump’s 8 p.m. ET ultimatum and heavy cross-market flows.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 7, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 15 surges to 57% on Trump ultimatum and official US Iran-ops briefings
The market jumped 41.5pp to 57%, as traders appeared to react to President Trump’s 8 p.m. ET Iran deadline and fresh U.S. government disclosures of operations inside Iran.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 7, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by May 31 odds jump to 47% on US officials signaling objectives near completion
Polymarket odds rose 6.5pp to 47%, likely on US government statements that military objectives in Iran are nearing completion and that messages are being exchanged, alongside fresh deadline-focused headlines.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 5, 2026
‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31?’ jumps to 94% on official US war updates and reports of downed jet over Iran
Probability rose 27.5pp over 7 days to 94%, likely on U.S. government statements of ongoing operations in Iran and reporting on a downed U.S. aircraft and missing aircrew on Iranian soil.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 1, 2026
“US forces enter Iran by Apr 30?” drops 12pp; defensive US moves and EU oil-security focus cool near-term incursion odds
The market fell to 58% (−12pp, 24h), likely as traders digested AP reporting that fresh U.S. deployments are framed as deterrent and an EU Commission call prioritized energy security over escalation.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 31, 2026
Odds of crude hitting $100 by March surge to near-certainty as WTI trades above $106; Iran risk and EU signals in focus
Polymarket’s “CL ≥$100 by end of March” probability jumped 14pp to 99.9%, likely on front‑month WTI trading above $106 and escalating Iran-related tensions flagged by EU lawmakers.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 28, 2026
Odds of oil settling ≥$100 by March 31 spike on WTI >$100 and EU warnings on Hormuz risk
Polymarket odds jumped 44pp to 76% after WTI printed above $100 and EU parliamentary queries flagged Strait of Hormuz disruption and war-risk insurance concerns.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
Odds of WTI $100-by-March rebound to 42% on Iran–Hormuz risk and official UK/EU signals
Yes-probability jumped ~18pp in 24h to 42.3%, likely on renewed supply-risk pricing tied to Iran–Strait of Hormuz tensions and UK/EU statements underscoring Gulf escalation.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
Odds Trump announces end of Iran operations by Mar 31 drop sharply amid signs of continued campaign and new troop deployments
The market fell 7.5pp to 13%, likely reflecting reports of sustained U.S. strike tempo and fresh troop deployments that cut the odds of an imminent “end of operations” announcement.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 24, 2026
Odds that CME Crude (CL) settles at $100 by Mar 31 plunge on de-escalation headlines and WTI near $89
The market’s probability dropped sharply to 38% as de-escalation talk around the U.S.–Iran conflict eased oil prices, with WTI around $89 reducing the path to a $100 month-end settlement.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 23, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 15: probability jumps to 30% amid escalation headlines and external pressure
The US–Iran ceasefire-by-Apr-15 market rose 5.5pp to 30% in 24h, likely reflecting trader positioning after high-profile escalation headlines and signs of international pressure.