Polymarket Topic Hub
Energy Polymarket Briefs
Oil and gas markets where geopolitics changes probability and pricing expectations.
32 Topic Results
Topic matching combines canonical topic keywords with optional Sanity topic synonyms.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 3, 2026
Strait of Hormuz ‘normal by July 15’ odds tumble after Iranian tanker routing warning
Polymarket odds fell 6.5pp to 7%, likely on AP-reported Iranian directives to tankers and no clear de‑escalation signals, cutting confidence the ≥60-ship 7‑day average will be hit before July 15.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 2, 2026
Hormuz “40+ ships in a day” market jumps to 99.9% on ceasefire-enabled traffic signals
Pricing surged 12.4 pp to 99.9%, likely reflecting signals that Strait of Hormuz transits resumed under a fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire and traders’ confidence in late‑June counts.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 26, 2026
Hormuz ‘60 ships in a day’ odds spike; AP tanker transit and rising Mideast supply tone lift pricing
Polymarket odds that any June 2026 day sees ≥60 ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz jumped 27.5pp to 56%, likely on reports of continued tanker passages and a softer oil-supply backdrop.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 24, 2026
Hormuz ≥20-ship odds spike to ~99% after AP notes rising transits; traders price low threshold by June 30
Price jumped 7.7pp to 99.2%, likely on AP reporting that more vessels are venturing through the Strait of Hormuz despite disruptions, lifting confidence that at least one day will meet the ≥20-ship threshold before June 30.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 22, 2026
Hormuz transit-fee odds pop on Switzerland talks; EU notes US–Iran accord to reopen strait
The “Yes” price rose 1.25pp to 3% over 24h, likely on headlines that U.S. and Iranian officials are meeting in Switzerland with Hormuz on the agenda, even as weekly pricing remains lower.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 19, 2026
US–Iran meeting by Jun 19 plunges ~42pp on deadline timing doubts despite reported Friday talks
Traders marked down odds of a qualifying US–Iran in‑person diplomatic meeting before the Jun 19, 2026 deadline, likely on lack of official confirmation despite reports of Friday talks and an EU statement on a broader agreement.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 18, 2026
Hormuz ‘normal by June’ odds jump on EU-backed US–Iran agreement and leaked reopening terms
Polymarket odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by end-June rose 4.5pp to 22%, likely on an EU-backed US–Iran understanding and reports that reopening terms include restored passage.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 17, 2026
Iran enrichment-end odds jump on official US–Iran deal signals and impending Geneva talks
The market repriced higher after official statements acknowledged a US–Iran agreement and signaled imminent nuclear talks, likely boosting odds of a formal pledge by June 30.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 15, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension market spikes to 99.9% after NPR reports announced deal; late-day diplomacy cited
The market jumped ~75 pp to 99.9% by the June 14 deadline, likely on NPR’s report of a U.S.–Iran deal and AP’s same-day coverage of Qatari mediators finalizing terms in Tehran.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 6, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds slump to 8% as June 15 deadline nears; no official deal signals
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran 'permanent peace' by June 15 fell 5.5pp to 8%, likely on deadline-driven repricing and no government confirmations of a deal.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 3, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds rebound ~6pp; repricing tracks weaker ceasefire bets despite soft oil
The market rose to 26.5% (+6.4pp, 24h), likely reflecting repricing alongside falling ceasefire/diplomacy odds, while broader energy and volatility gauges did not confirm.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 2, 2026
Hormuz traffic-normalization odds fall sharply on U.S. strikes near strait and EU supply-risk signals
The market fell 7.5pp to 22% in 24h, likely on U.S. strikes near Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz and EU warnings on Middle East energy supply risks, alongside a narrowing June 30 deadline.
Polymarket Analysis • May 30, 2026
Hormuz blockade-lift odds jump to 27% on extreme 24h spike as deadline nears
Probability rose 12pp to 27% in the past day, an extreme move likely tied to the imminent May 31 deadline amid active U.S.–Iran diplomacy.
Polymarket Analysis • May 29, 2026
US–Iran “permanent peace” odds drop sharply on reports of new strikes and cautious US stance
Polymarket probability for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 7 fell 7.5pp to 21% in 24h, likely reflecting reports of reciprocal strikes and US statements of not rushing an agreement, with EU officials flagging continued Middle East t…
Polymarket Analysis • May 24, 2026
US–Iran peace-deal odds surge to 69% on reports of a ‘largely negotiated’ framework and ceasefire stability
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by May 31 spiked ~58pp to 69%, likely on Trump’s claim a deal is “largely negotiated” and AP reporting of progress in talks, with oil prices falling.
Polymarket Analysis • May 22, 2026
Iran ceasefire market jumps to 99.7% as window nears close with no qualifying U.S. strike reports
Yes odds rose 2.3pp on the day (to 99.7%) as the May 21 (ET) window closed without credible reporting of a U.S. kinetic strike on Iranian soil; congressional debate focused on oversight, not action.
Polymarket Analysis • May 21, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds plunge into low single digits as May 21 deadline nears; UK/EU signals stress Hormuz reopening
Polymarket odds that Iran closes its airspace by May 21 fell 11.6 pp to 3.9%. The drop likely reflects the looming deadline without corroborating Iranian actions and government focus on reopening Hormuz, not aviation shutdowns.
Polymarket Analysis • May 20, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 49% on official alarms over Strait of Hormuz disruptions
Polymarket odds for an Iran airspace closure by May 31 surged 11.5pp to 49% in 24 hours, likely reacting to UK/EU warnings on Hormuz disruptions and related fuel risks.
Polymarket Analysis • May 20, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 34% on official warnings over Strait of Hormuz disruption
Polymarket odds for a major Iranian airspace closure by May 24 rose 9.5pp to 34% in 24h, likely on UK/EU warnings about Hormuz disruptions and new signs of regional strain.
Polymarket Analysis • May 19, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds jump after reported US strike cancellation; de‑escalation signal leads
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 rose 10.5pp to 36% over 24h, likely on AP’s report that President Trump called off a planned strike on Iran at Gulf allies’ request.
Polymarket Analysis • May 15, 2026
Israel–Syria security deal odds bounce intraday but remain lower w/w amid mixed regional signals and firmer oil
Pricing for an Israel–Syria security agreement ticked up 2.5pp to 12% over 24h, but is still 2pp lower on the week. The repricing likely reflects mixed regional security signals and a firmer oil backdrop.
Polymarket Analysis • May 7, 2026
Hormuz ‘normal by end‑May’ odds jump on U.S. escort mission signals and softer oil
Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic hitting IMF Portwatch’s 60-transit 7DMA by May 31 rose 11.5 pp to 29%, likely on U.S. ‘Project Freedom’ escort updates and easing oil risk.
Polymarket Analysis • May 5, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 53% on Hormuz escalation signals and EU energy-security focus
Polymarket odds for an Iran-ordered airspace closure by May 31 rose 14.5 pp to 53% today, likely on reports of renewed Hormuz tensions and EU attention to Middle East energy security.
Polymarket Analysis • May 4, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds fall sharply; slight uptick in Iran–US deal markets and steady oil backdrop
Pricing for an Iran airspace closure by May 8 dropped ~2.5pp to 12% over 24h, likely reflecting modest de-escalation cues in related Iran–US diplomacy markets and calm macro risk gauges.
Polymarket Analysis • May 2, 2026
Odds of a Trump announcement lifting the Hormuz blockade fall; US signals and oil spike point to continued pressure
The market fell 4.5pp to 15%, likely reflecting US government messaging that the blockade remains in place and reports of a potential extension, reducing odds of a near-term lift.
Polymarket Analysis • May 1, 2026
US–Iran “permanent peace deal” odds drop sharply on hawkish signals and US planning
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 fell 10.5pp to 30%, likely on US State Department comments flagging major hurdles, Iran’s hardline rhetoric, and reports of new US military options.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 30, 2026
Odds of Trump announcing Hormuz blockade lift by May 31 plunge after US signals blockade remains conditional
Price fell 14pp to 44% as traders reacted to April 27 US State Department remarks framing the Hormuz blockade as ongoing and conditional, with no clear signal of an imminent lift.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 29, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace deal’ odds tick up after sharp weekly selloff; US signals “better” Iranian paper but core disputes persist
Odds rose to 30% (+2.5pp, 24h) but are down 23pp over 7 days, likely reflecting US statements of a temporary ceasefire and unresolved disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 28, 2026
Hormuz blockade-lift odds crash into single digits as U.S. officials signal policy unchanged and deadline looms
Polymarket odds that Trump will announce lifting the U.S. Strait of Hormuz blockade by Apr 30 fell to 5% (−7.5pp on the day), likely due to the imminent deadline and U.S. statements indicating the blockade remains in place.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 28, 2026
US–Iran peace-deal odds plunge on UN clash and stalled talks; extreme weekly repricing
The market fell 7.5pp to 43% in 24h (−26.5pp in 7d), likely on AP-reported U.S.–Iran clashes at the UN NPT review and talks “in flux,” with a UK UNSC statement underscoring ongoing security risks.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 23, 2026
Hormuz blockade-lift odds crash as US enforcement continues and UK leads reopening planning
Polymarket odds fell 17.5pp to 6% as official signals pointed to the blockade remaining in force—U.S. enforcement (Apr 20) and a UK-led planning conference (Apr 21) suggest no imminent lift.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 22, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds plunge after reported failed Pakistan talks; maritime security posture hardens
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran in‑person diplomatic meeting by Apr 30 fell ~31pp to 57%, likely on reports the sides failed to meet in Pakistan and on stepped‑up maritime security actions.