Polymarket Topic Hub
Energy Polymarket Briefs
Oil and gas markets where geopolitics changes probability and pricing expectations.
11 Topic Results
Topic matching combines canonical topic keywords with optional Sanity topic synonyms.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 5, 2026
‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31?’ jumps to 94% on official US war updates and reports of downed jet over Iran
Probability rose 27.5pp over 7 days to 94%, likely on U.S. government statements of ongoing operations in Iran and reporting on a downed U.S. aircraft and missing aircrew on Iranian soil.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 1, 2026
“US forces enter Iran by Apr 30?” drops 12pp; defensive US moves and EU oil-security focus cool near-term incursion odds
The market fell to 58% (−12pp, 24h), likely as traders digested AP reporting that fresh U.S. deployments are framed as deterrent and an EU Commission call prioritized energy security over escalation.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 31, 2026
Odds of crude hitting $100 by March surge to near-certainty as WTI trades above $106; Iran risk and EU signals in focus
Polymarket’s “CL ≥$100 by end of March” probability jumped 14pp to 99.9%, likely on front‑month WTI trading above $106 and escalating Iran-related tensions flagged by EU lawmakers.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 28, 2026
Odds of oil settling ≥$100 by March 31 spike on WTI >$100 and EU warnings on Hormuz risk
Polymarket odds jumped 44pp to 76% after WTI printed above $100 and EU parliamentary queries flagged Strait of Hormuz disruption and war-risk insurance concerns.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
Odds of WTI $100-by-March rebound to 42% on Iran–Hormuz risk and official UK/EU signals
Yes-probability jumped ~18pp in 24h to 42.3%, likely on renewed supply-risk pricing tied to Iran–Strait of Hormuz tensions and UK/EU statements underscoring Gulf escalation.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
Odds Trump announces end of Iran operations by Mar 31 drop sharply amid signs of continued campaign and new troop deployments
The market fell 7.5pp to 13%, likely reflecting reports of sustained U.S. strike tempo and fresh troop deployments that cut the odds of an imminent “end of operations” announcement.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 24, 2026
Odds that CME Crude (CL) settles at $100 by Mar 31 plunge on de-escalation headlines and WTI near $89
The market’s probability dropped sharply to 38% as de-escalation talk around the U.S.–Iran conflict eased oil prices, with WTI around $89 reducing the path to a $100 month-end settlement.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 23, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 15: probability jumps to 30% amid escalation headlines and external pressure
The US–Iran ceasefire-by-Apr-15 market rose 5.5pp to 30% in 24h, likely reflecting trader positioning after high-profile escalation headlines and signs of international pressure.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 20, 2026
Odds of Iranian regime falling by Mar 31 drop sharply as deadline nears amid ongoing war
The market’s probability fell over the past week to 2.3%, an extreme 7‑day downside move, likely reflecting the contract’s imminent March 31 deadline despite continued war headlines.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 20, 2026
Probability of Iranian Regime Falling by June 30, 2026, Declines Amid Rising Regional Conflict
The market probability for the Iranian regime falling by June 30, 2026, decreased by 1.5 percentage points over 24 hours, likely reflecting escalating military tensions and ongoing conflict in the region.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 20, 2026
Probability of Crude Oil Hitting $120 by March End Declines Amid Regional Tensions and Market Volatility
The market probability for crude oil reaching $120 by the end of March dropped 18 percentage points over the past week, likely reflecting persistent geopolitical risks and recent price trends.