Polymarket Topic Hub
Energy Polymarket Briefs
Oil and gas markets where geopolitics changes probability and pricing expectations.
30 Topic Results
Topic matching combines canonical topic keywords with optional Sanity topic synonyms.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 18, 2026
Hormuz “returns to normal by Dec 31” odds drop sharply on stalled Iran deal signals; related markets weaken
The market fell 9.5pp to 34% amid reports that a proposed Iran deal deadline is expiring without agreement and related Hormuz/US-announcement markets softened, reducing confidence in year-end normalization.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 13, 2026
Polymarket: Odds of US announcing end of Iranian blockade plunge as deadline nears; no US signal, IEA highlights Hormuz constraints
Probability fell 7.5pp to 3% as the Aug 14 deadline approaches without a qualifying US announcement, while an IEA note underscored that a Hormuz reopening remains elusive.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 12, 2026
Odds of a US announcement ending Iran blockade tick up; AP sanctions pivot cited while oil strength caps rebound
The market rose 4pp to 14% over 24h, likely on AP reporting of an Aug 11 US pivot back to Iran sanctions, but a steep 7d slide persists amid no official US signal and elevated oil prices.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 10, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade by Sept 30 drop 17pp on lack of official signal
The market fell to 64% (−17pp, 24h), likely reflecting the absence of any qualifying U.S. announcement ending or suspending the Iran naval blockade, with declines echoed in nearer-dated markets.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 6, 2026
Odds of Iran imposing Hormuz transit fees drop sharply on talk of reopening deal; extreme downward repricing
The market fell 11pp to 10% in 24h, likely on AP-reported comments about a possible deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allied posture signals, prompting an extreme de-escalation repricing.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 5, 2026
‘End of Iranian blockade by Aug 15?’ jumps to 63% on AP report of Iran–Oman strait talks
The market rose 21.5pp to 63% in 24h, likely on an AP report that Iran and Oman made progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting odds of a U.S. announcement ending the blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 28, 2026
US–Iran halt odds surge to 95% on reported attack pause and mediator progress
Polymarket odds for a US announcement halting offensive operations against Iran jumped ~54 points to 95.6%, likely on reports of a US–Iran pause in attacks and mediator-led de‑escalation talks.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 27, 2026
Bab el‑Mandeb ‘closure’ odds fall sharply; EU supply assurance and US–Iran pause in strikes cited
The market dropped 3pp to 15% on the day and 9.5pp on the week, likely reflecting EU assurances of no immediate oil supply risk and a reported US–Iran pause in strikes.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 26, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds drop sharply; de-escalation signals and benign supply readout weigh on risk
Odds that Israel will order a major airspace closure fell 9.5 pp to 36% over 24h, likely reflecting reports of no new U.S. strikes on Iran and an EU assessment of no immediate oil-supply concerns.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 18, 2026
U.S.–Iran invasion market jumps to 29% on escalatory strikes; CENTCOM confirms new Iran strikes
Probability rose 6pp to 29% in 24h, likely on reports of U.S. strikes inside Iran and Iranian retaliation, reinforced by a U.S. Central Command statement confirming new strike waves.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 17, 2026
Bab el-Mandeb closure-by-Aug odds jump on Yemen escalation headlines; extreme 24h spike
Polymarket odds for a PortWatch-defined Bab el‑Mandeb “effective closure” rose 7.5 pp to 19% in 24h, likely on AP reports of Houthi escalation and intensifying Hormuz fighting, alongside official emphasis on chokepoint risks.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 15, 2026
US Hormuz-fee odds plunge; traders focus on blockade signals and Hill pushback
Polymarket odds that the US will collect Hormuz transit/protection fees by Dec 31, 2026 fell 26pp to 9%, likely reflecting emphasis on blockade/strikes over fee programs and Senate Democrats’ block of a defense bill.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 13, 2026
Iran blockade odds jump to 31% over the week; cross-markets and oil firm as official rhetoric spotlights Gulf risk
The contract climbed ~20 pp over the week to 31%, likely reflecting heightened Gulf risk signaled in official statements and a 9% weekly rise in Brent crude.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 12, 2026
US–Iran blockade odds jump to 56% after Trump threats; allied governments spotlight Hormuz
Polymarket odds that the US will announce a blockade on Iran by Dec 31 rose 17pp to 56%, likely on Trump’s public threats and fresh official focus on Strait of Hormuz navigation.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 11, 2026
US–Iran blockade odds drop 7.5pp; UK and Australia urge de‑escalation amid fresh strikes
Polymarket’s “US blockade of Iran by Dec 31” fell to 41% (-7.5pp in 24h), likely on July 10 allied government calls for de-escalation that tempered a week of escalation-driven gains.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 8, 2026
Hormuz traffic-normalization odds plunge on tanker attack reports and UK–Iran diplomatic flare-up
Odds fell 4.5pp in 24h and 25.5pp in 7d, likely on reports of a tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz and fresh UK diplomatic action toward Iran.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 7, 2026
Strait of Hormuz ‘normal by July 31’ odds plunge on deadline risk and lack of qualifying IMF Portwatch prints
The market fell 6.5pp in 24h and 29.5pp over 7d to 9%, likely as traders price in the July 31 deadline with no IMF Portwatch 7‑day average ≥60 yet published; related maturities also dropped.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 6, 2026
Strait of Hormuz normalization odds fall 6.5pp; regional shipping risk in focus after Red Sea attack report
Odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dec 31, 2026 fell to 73% (-6.5pp in 24h), likely on a risk reassessment after a reported cargo ship attack in the Red Sea and despite steady official energy-supply signals in Europe.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 3, 2026
Strait of Hormuz ‘normal by July 15’ odds tumble after Iranian tanker routing warning
Polymarket odds fell 6.5pp to 7%, likely on AP-reported Iranian directives to tankers and no clear de‑escalation signals, cutting confidence the ≥60-ship 7‑day average will be hit before July 15.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 2, 2026
Hormuz “40+ ships in a day” market jumps to 99.9% on ceasefire-enabled traffic signals
Pricing surged 12.4 pp to 99.9%, likely reflecting signals that Strait of Hormuz transits resumed under a fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire and traders’ confidence in late‑June counts.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 26, 2026
Hormuz ‘60 ships in a day’ odds spike; AP tanker transit and rising Mideast supply tone lift pricing
Polymarket odds that any June 2026 day sees ≥60 ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz jumped 27.5pp to 56%, likely on reports of continued tanker passages and a softer oil-supply backdrop.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 24, 2026
Hormuz ≥20-ship odds spike to ~99% after AP notes rising transits; traders price low threshold by June 30
Price jumped 7.7pp to 99.2%, likely on AP reporting that more vessels are venturing through the Strait of Hormuz despite disruptions, lifting confidence that at least one day will meet the ≥20-ship threshold before June 30.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 22, 2026
Hormuz transit-fee odds pop on Switzerland talks; EU notes US–Iran accord to reopen strait
The “Yes” price rose 1.25pp to 3% over 24h, likely on headlines that U.S. and Iranian officials are meeting in Switzerland with Hormuz on the agenda, even as weekly pricing remains lower.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 19, 2026
US–Iran meeting by Jun 19 plunges ~42pp on deadline timing doubts despite reported Friday talks
Traders marked down odds of a qualifying US–Iran in‑person diplomatic meeting before the Jun 19, 2026 deadline, likely on lack of official confirmation despite reports of Friday talks and an EU statement on a broader agreement.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 18, 2026
Hormuz ‘normal by June’ odds jump on EU-backed US–Iran agreement and leaked reopening terms
Polymarket odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by end-June rose 4.5pp to 22%, likely on an EU-backed US–Iran understanding and reports that reopening terms include restored passage.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 17, 2026
Iran enrichment-end odds jump on official US–Iran deal signals and impending Geneva talks
The market repriced higher after official statements acknowledged a US–Iran agreement and signaled imminent nuclear talks, likely boosting odds of a formal pledge by June 30.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 15, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension market spikes to 99.9% after NPR reports announced deal; late-day diplomacy cited
The market jumped ~75 pp to 99.9% by the June 14 deadline, likely on NPR’s report of a U.S.–Iran deal and AP’s same-day coverage of Qatari mediators finalizing terms in Tehran.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 6, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds slump to 8% as June 15 deadline nears; no official deal signals
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran 'permanent peace' by June 15 fell 5.5pp to 8%, likely on deadline-driven repricing and no government confirmations of a deal.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 3, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds rebound ~6pp; repricing tracks weaker ceasefire bets despite soft oil
The market rose to 26.5% (+6.4pp, 24h), likely reflecting repricing alongside falling ceasefire/diplomacy odds, while broader energy and volatility gauges did not confirm.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 2, 2026
Hormuz traffic-normalization odds fall sharply on U.S. strikes near strait and EU supply-risk signals
The market fell 7.5pp to 22% in 24h, likely on U.S. strikes near Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz and EU warnings on Middle East energy supply risks, alongside a narrowing June 30 deadline.