Polymarket Topic Hub
Energy Polymarket Briefs
Oil and gas markets where geopolitics changes probability and pricing expectations.
35 Topic Results
Topic matching combines canonical topic keywords with optional Sanity topic synonyms.
Polymarket Analysis • Oct 4, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade by Nov 30 fall; G7 signals firmness on Hormuz
The market fell 4pp to 33%, likely reacting to the Oct 2 G7 leaders’ statement commending US efforts in the Strait of Hormuz and condemning Iran’s disruptions, alongside UK and Australian actions reinforcing pressure on Iran-linked actors.
Polymarket Analysis • Oct 3, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade by Oct 15 drop sharply as G7 backs enforcement and fuels release
Polymarket probability fell 3pp to 9% after G7 leaders condemned Iran, praised US efforts in the Strait of Hormuz, and launched a 100m-barrel stocks release—lowering odds of a near‑term US announcement ending the blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 29, 2026
Odds of US announcing end of Iran blockade by Oct 31 drop to 26% on signals of continued standoff
Pricing fell to 26% as reports of a rejected Iran pause and an Australian government statement on the ongoing Hormuz closure reduced expectations of a near-term US announcement.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 28, 2026
Odds for Hormuz traffic ‘return to normal’ fall sharply as deadline nears and governments flag ongoing disruption
Price fell 2.5 pp to 5% amid an extreme 24h downdraft, likely on approaching Oct 31 cutoff and official calls for the urgent re‑opening of Hormuz.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 27, 2026
Odds slip for US announcing end of Iran blockade by Dec 31 after Trump rejects Hormuz plan
Polymarket odds for a US announcement ending the Iranian naval blockade fell 7.6pp, likely on President Trump rejecting an Iranian reopening proposal and allied statements condemning Iran’s maritime actions.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 26, 2026
Saudi East–West pipeline restart odds plunge as deadline nears with no Saudi confirmation
Probability fell 14.5pp to 21% in 24h, likely reflecting the fast-approaching Oct 1 market deadline without a qualifying Saudi government restart announcement, while official statements focused on maritime security.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 25, 2026
Saudi East–West pipeline restart odds fall; G7/UK signals of sustained risk weigh on near-term bets
Odds that Saudi Arabia’s East–West oil pipeline restarts by Oct 15 fell 11.5pp to 60% in 24h, likely reflecting G7 condemnation of Houthi strikes (Sep 22) and UK added support to Riyadh (Sep 22).
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 23, 2026
Saudi East–West pipeline restart odds surge to 64% amid G7 censure of Houthi attacks and new UK support
Polymarket odds for a Saudi East–West pipeline restart by Sep 30 jumped 33.5 pp to 64%, likely following coordinated G7 statements on Red Sea security and the UK’s added defensive support to Saudi Arabia on Sep 22.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 18, 2026
Bab el-Mandeb closure odds drop sharply as escorts signaled; weekly energy benchmarks ease
Polymarket odds for an IMF-defined Bab el-Mandeb "effective closure" by Oct 31 fell 3.5 pp to 11%, likely on naval-escort signals and softer weekly Brent prices.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 17, 2026
Saudi East–West pipeline restart odds surge; repricing follows Yemen-related official statements and elevated Brent
Odds that Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline restarts by Sept. 30 jumped sharply, likely on heightened Yemen-related official statements and persistently high Brent prices that raise incentives to restore flows.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 15, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade by Sep 30 tick up on EU export-control update and recent Quad statement
Price rose to 14% over the last day, likely reflecting sensitivity to fresh policy signals — notably the EU’s updated dual‑use controls (Sep 14) and the US–UK–France–Germany Quad statement to the IAEA on Iran (Sep 10).
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 13, 2026
Iran–Oman Hormuz pact odds jump ahead of Sep 14 deadline; late-stage repricing under Iran-focused diplomacy
Odds for a public Iran–Oman agreement on Strait of Hormuz traffic rose sharply into the Sep 14 cutoff, likely on deadline-driven repricing and Iran-related IAEA diplomacy.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 12, 2026
Odds of a US end to the Iran blockade by Sep 30 jump; move tracks IAEA-linked official statements
Polymarket odds for a US announcement ending/suspending the Iran blockade by Sep 30 rose 6.5pp to 21% over 24h, likely on fresh IAEA-week government statements and heightened energy-risk context.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 11, 2026
Bab el‑Mandeb closure odds jump to 21% after UK flags Houthi actions; energy backdrop adds bid
Odds that Bab el‑Mandeb is “effectively closed” by Oct 31 climbed 11.5 pp to 21%, likely on the UK’s Sept 10 FCDO statement on Yemen/Houthi actions and a sharp weekly rise in Brent.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 10, 2026
Odds of US announcing end to Iran blockade by Dec 31 rise; repricing follows official signals and term-structure divergence
The market climbed 4.6 pp to 59.5% over 24h, likely on traders differentiating near-term from year-end outcomes after fresh US and UK government signals kept current operations and sanctions in focus.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 4, 2026
Strait of Hormuz ‘normal traffic by Dec 31’ odds rebound on US claim lanes are open, mines destroyed
Polymarket odds rose 2.5pp to 28% after a US State Department briefing said mines were destroyed and the straits “will remain open,” likely offsetting earlier risk-off moves tied to regional strikes.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 3, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade plunge on State Dept vow to keep straits open; fresh clashes cited
Polymarket odds that the US will announce an end to its Iran naval blockade by Sep 21 fell sharply, likely on Sept 1 State Dept remarks affirming continued operations and AP reports of renewed attacks.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 31, 2026
Odds of a US announcement ending the Iran blockade drop; AP reports strikes and new sanctions plan
Pricing fell 1.5pp on the day and 11.5pp on the week, likely on reports of fresh US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and plans to sanction another bank tied to Iran transactions.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 30, 2026
Odds of US announcing end of Iranian blockade by Dec 31 drop ~6pp on no official signal; oil softer
Polymarket’s Dec 31, 2026 contract fell 5.65pp to 62.6% over 24h, likely reflecting the absence of any qualifying U.S. announcement and softer Brent crude.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 27, 2026
Hormuz ‘normal-by-Sept 30’ odds slip to 8% after Iran ship-ban warning; policy signals underscore risk
Polymarket odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by Sept 30 fell 1.5 pp to 8%, likely on an AP report that Iran warned it could ban military ships, alongside fresh government statements highlighting ongoing regional strain.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 26, 2026
Odds of a US announcement ending Iran blockade jump; media on shortages, new sanctions likely catalyze move
The market rose 11.5pp to 40% over 24h, an extreme move likely tied to clustered reporting on Iran’s fuel shortages and fresh US sanctions coverage, despite no new US government statement ending the blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 25, 2026
Odds of a US-announced end to the Iran blockade by Sept 7 drop to 6% after fresh sanctions push
Contracts fell 6pp to 6% over 24h, likely on NPR-reported US sanctions escalation against Iran (Aug 24) and no offsetting official signals of a blockade suspension.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 24, 2026
Iran blockade-end odds jump to 19% amid cross-market repricing; no new US Iran policy signal identified
Polymarket’s “US announces end of Iranian blockade by Sep 14, 2026” rose 6.5pp to 19% in 24h, a move that appears driven by alignment with sister markets and fresh flows rather than any new US announcement on Iran.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 18, 2026
Hormuz “returns to normal by Dec 31” odds drop sharply on stalled Iran deal signals; related markets weaken
The market fell 9.5pp to 34% amid reports that a proposed Iran deal deadline is expiring without agreement and related Hormuz/US-announcement markets softened, reducing confidence in year-end normalization.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 13, 2026
Polymarket: Odds of US announcing end of Iranian blockade plunge as deadline nears; no US signal, IEA highlights Hormuz constraints
Probability fell 7.5pp to 3% as the Aug 14 deadline approaches without a qualifying US announcement, while an IEA note underscored that a Hormuz reopening remains elusive.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 12, 2026
Odds of a US announcement ending Iran blockade tick up; AP sanctions pivot cited while oil strength caps rebound
The market rose 4pp to 14% over 24h, likely on AP reporting of an Aug 11 US pivot back to Iran sanctions, but a steep 7d slide persists amid no official US signal and elevated oil prices.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 10, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade by Sept 30 drop 17pp on lack of official signal
The market fell to 64% (−17pp, 24h), likely reflecting the absence of any qualifying U.S. announcement ending or suspending the Iran naval blockade, with declines echoed in nearer-dated markets.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 6, 2026
Odds of Iran imposing Hormuz transit fees drop sharply on talk of reopening deal; extreme downward repricing
The market fell 11pp to 10% in 24h, likely on AP-reported comments about a possible deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allied posture signals, prompting an extreme de-escalation repricing.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 5, 2026
‘End of Iranian blockade by Aug 15?’ jumps to 63% on AP report of Iran–Oman strait talks
The market rose 21.5pp to 63% in 24h, likely on an AP report that Iran and Oman made progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting odds of a U.S. announcement ending the blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 28, 2026
US–Iran halt odds surge to 95% on reported attack pause and mediator progress
Polymarket odds for a US announcement halting offensive operations against Iran jumped ~54 points to 95.6%, likely on reports of a US–Iran pause in attacks and mediator-led de‑escalation talks.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 27, 2026
Bab el‑Mandeb ‘closure’ odds fall sharply; EU supply assurance and US–Iran pause in strikes cited
The market dropped 3pp to 15% on the day and 9.5pp on the week, likely reflecting EU assurances of no immediate oil supply risk and a reported US–Iran pause in strikes.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 26, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds drop sharply; de-escalation signals and benign supply readout weigh on risk
Odds that Israel will order a major airspace closure fell 9.5 pp to 36% over 24h, likely reflecting reports of no new U.S. strikes on Iran and an EU assessment of no immediate oil-supply concerns.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 18, 2026
U.S.–Iran invasion market jumps to 29% on escalatory strikes; CENTCOM confirms new Iran strikes
Probability rose 6pp to 29% in 24h, likely on reports of U.S. strikes inside Iran and Iranian retaliation, reinforced by a U.S. Central Command statement confirming new strike waves.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 17, 2026
Bab el-Mandeb closure-by-Aug odds jump on Yemen escalation headlines; extreme 24h spike
Polymarket odds for a PortWatch-defined Bab el‑Mandeb “effective closure” rose 7.5 pp to 19% in 24h, likely on AP reports of Houthi escalation and intensifying Hormuz fighting, alongside official emphasis on chokepoint risks.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 15, 2026
US Hormuz-fee odds plunge; traders focus on blockade signals and Hill pushback
Polymarket odds that the US will collect Hormuz transit/protection fees by Dec 31, 2026 fell 26pp to 9%, likely reflecting emphasis on blockade/strikes over fee programs and Senate Democrats’ block of a defense bill.