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Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

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Iran airspace-closure odds rebound ~6pp; repricing tracks weaker ceasefire bets despite soft oil
  • The repricing appears driven by declines in related diplomacy/ceasefire markets over the last 24 hours, which directionally align with higher disruption risk and thus higher odds of an Iranian airspace closure.
  • Markets reacted to analysis noting that recent “ceasefires” vary widely in scope and enforcement, implying limited guarantees of calm across fronts involving Iran, according to AP News on June 2 (AP News).

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