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US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

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US–Iran “permanent peace” odds surge; mediation push and regional ceasefire headlines in focus
  • Repricing appears driven by reporting that mediators are pushing to extend a U.S.–Iran ceasefire and that Pakistan expects to host a second round of U.S.–Iran talks, signaling ongoing diplomacy toward a longer halt to hostilities (NPR, Apr 16, 2026).
  • Markets reacted to regional de-escalation headlines, including an announced 10-day Israel–Lebanon ceasefire on Apr 16, which may suggest parallel containment efforts around fronts linked to Iran’s network (Axios, Apr 16, 2026).

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