Polymarket Briefs
Top Movers
Markets with the largest 24-hour probability shift, ranked by absolute move size.
Largest Probability Changes
Computed from linked market state and refreshed through daily discovery caching.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 4, 2026
Polymarket odds for 'US forces enter Iran by Apr 30' surge to 85% on US war statements and downed jet report
Contract repriced sharply higher, likely on official U.S. briefings about ongoing operations in Iran and news a U.S. jet went down over Iran, tightening the window to April 30.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 3, 2026
US–Iran Apr 30 ceasefire odds plunge after US officials signal operations continue
Polymarket odds of a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 fell 15.5pp to 23%, likely on April 1–2 US government statements stressing ongoing operations and no immediate truce.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 1, 2026
“US forces enter Iran by Apr 30?” drops 12pp; defensive US moves and EU oil-security focus cool near-term incursion odds
The market fell to 58% (−12pp, 24h), likely as traders digested AP reporting that fresh U.S. deployments are framed as deterrent and an EU Commission call prioritized energy security over escalation.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 30, 2026
Polymarket: ‘US forces enter Iran by April 30?’ surges to 71% on official conflict updates and G7 focus
The contract jumped to 71%, likely on coordinated G7 statements, a U.S. operational update, and UK reporting of active air-defense actions, all pointing to elevated near-term conflict risk.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 23, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 15: probability jumps to 30% amid escalation headlines and external pressure
The US–Iran ceasefire-by-Apr-15 market rose 5.5pp to 30% in 24h, likely reflecting trader positioning after high-profile escalation headlines and signs of international pressure.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 6, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire (by Apr 15) jumps to 12% on US signals operations are “near completion”
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 15 rose 6.5pp to 12% in 24h, apparently reacting to US government statements that objectives in Iran are nearing completion and fresh reports on active operations.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 5, 2026
‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31?’ jumps to 94% on official US war updates and reports of downed jet over Iran
Probability rose 27.5pp over 7 days to 94%, likely on U.S. government statements of ongoing operations in Iran and reporting on a downed U.S. aircraft and missing aircrew on Iranian soil.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 27, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 slips ~5pp; Hormuz transit move and official statements point away from de-escalation
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 fell 4.5pp to 45%, likely on reports of Iran tightening Strait of Hormuz transit rules and government statements focused on conflict rather than ceasefire.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 2, 2026
Polymarket: ‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ dips; de‑escalation signals and official timelines weigh
The market slid ~1.5pp to 65% over 24h, likely reflecting U.S. government messaging that objectives are near and “weeks, not months” from completion, plus de‑escalation cues flagged by AP.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 29, 2026
Polymarket ‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ surges; official G7 and US/UK defense signals lift perceived risk
Pricing for ‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ moved sharply higher, likely on coordinated G7 messaging on Iran and fresh US/UK operational updates indicating sustained regional hostilities.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 21, 2026
Odds of US forces entering Iran by Dec 31 slip; traders weigh ‘winding down’ signals
The market eased 1.5pp on the day and 4.5pp on the week to 67%, likely reflecting reports the U.S. may “wind down” operations even as strikes on Iran continue.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 23, 2026
Iranian regime-fall odds drift lower over 7 days amid external-conflict headlines
Pricing for the Iranian regime to fall by June 30, 2026 eased to 24%, down 4.5pp on the week, as traders appeared to refocus on external confrontation news rather than domestic collapse signals.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 20, 2026
Probability of Iranian Regime Falling by June 30, 2026, Declines Amid Rising Regional Conflict
The market probability for the Iranian regime falling by June 30, 2026, decreased by 1.5 percentage points over 24 hours, likely reflecting escalating military tensions and ongoing conflict in the region.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 20, 2026
Probability of Trump-Greenland Deal Signed by December 31 Rises to 60% Amid Renewed US-Denmark Negotiation Signals
The market probability for a US-Denmark Greenland deal by end-2026 increased to 60%, reflecting renewed optimism about formal agreement prospects.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 21, 2026
Taiwan invasion odds tick down slightly as risk focus shifts to Iran conflict
The market eased 0.2pp to 10.5% in the past 24h, a normal move that appears linked to attention centering on the Iran war and broader risk tone, with no new Taiwan-specific catalysts.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire (by Apr 15) drops 8.5pp as positions harden; UK UNHRC statements underscore tensions
The Apr 15 US–Iran ceasefire market fell to 29% (−8.5pp, 24h), likely on reports of firmer stances and Hormuz friction, alongside UK statements at the UNHRC condemning Iranian aggression.