Latest Updates
Most recent prediction market briefings.

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis
US–Iran “permanent peace deal” odds drop sharply on hawkish signals and US planning
May 1, 2026

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis
Odds of Trump announcing Hormuz blockade lift by May 31 plunge after US signals blockade remains conditional
Apr 30, 2026

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis
US–Iran ‘permanent peace deal’ odds tick up after sharp weekly selloff; US signals “better” Iranian paper but core disputes persist
Apr 29, 2026

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis
Hormuz blockade-lift odds crash into single digits as U.S. officials signal policy unchanged and deadline looms
Apr 28, 2026












