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Analysis · Polymarket Analysis| May 2, 2026
Odds of a Trump announcement lifting the Hormuz blockade fall; US signals and oil spike point to continued pressure
The market fell 4.5pp to 15%, likely reflecting US government messaging that the blockade remains in place and reports of a potential extension, reducing odds of a near-term lift.
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, chart

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Most recent prediction market briefings.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis
US–Iran “permanent peace deal” odds drop sharply on hawkish signals and US planning
May 1, 2026
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis
Odds of Trump announcing Hormuz blockade lift by May 31 plunge after US signals blockade remains conditional
Apr 30, 2026
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis
US–Iran ‘permanent peace deal’ odds tick up after sharp weekly selloff; US signals “better” Iranian paper but core disputes persist
Apr 29, 2026
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30 chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis
Hormuz blockade-lift odds crash into single digits as U.S. officials signal policy unchanged and deadline looms
Apr 28, 2026

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43 posts
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Apr 28, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds plunge to 2.3% after US confirms Islamabad talks canceled and direct contacts rare
Probability fell 7.2pp to 2.3% as Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed planned Islamabad talks were canceled and said US–Iran contacts r
Apr 28, 2026
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Apr 28, 2026
US–Iran peace-deal odds plunge on UN clash and stalled talks; extreme weekly repricing
The market fell 7.5pp to 43% in 24h (−26.5pp in 7d), likely on AP-reported U.S.–Iran clashes at the UN NPT review and talks “in flux,” with
Apr 28, 2026
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Apr 27, 2026
Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire extension odds bounce 9pp into deadline, but remain 32pp lower on week amid de‑escalation doubts
The market for an Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire extension rose to 28% (+9pp/24h) as the April 26 deadline approached, but is still down 32pp on
Apr 27, 2026
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Apr 26, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds collapse before Apr 27 deadline amid stalled talks and US blockade stance
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran diplomatic meeting by Apr 27 fell ~46pp to 1.9%, likely on stalled Pakistan talks and a US announcement enforc
Apr 26, 2026
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Apr 26, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds collapse as Islamabad talks pause; US blockade stance weighs
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran diplomatic meeting by Apr 30 fell 53pp to 13%, following reports that Pakistan-hosted talks were put on hold a
Apr 26, 2026
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Apr 26, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds plunge as near-term talks stall and US announces Iran-focused maritime blockade
Probability for a US–Iran diplomatic meeting by Apr 29 fell 55pp to 10%, likely on halted Pakistan talks and a US government announcement of
Apr 26, 2026
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Apr 26, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds plunge after Axios reports U.S. envoys’ trip canceled; U.S. gov touts Iran-focused blockade
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran diplomatic meeting by Apr 28, 2026 fell 43.5 pp to 8%, likely on an Axios report canceling a U.S. envoys’ trip
Apr 26, 2026
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Apr 25, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds jump on Pakistan-brokered talks push and US ceasefire extension reports
Pricing surged toward coin‑flip, likely on AP reports of Pakistan mediating US–Iran talks and Trump announcing a US ceasefire extension at I
Apr 25, 2026
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Apr 24, 2026
US–Iran diplomatic meeting odds plunge on reports of talks “in limbo” and no near‑term urgency
Probability dropped 29pp to 25% in 24h, likely on reports that U.S.–Iran talks remain in limbo, the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and the ceas
Apr 24, 2026
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23 chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Apr 23, 2026
Hormuz blockade-lift odds crash as US enforcement continues and UK leads reopening planning
Polymarket odds fell 17.5pp to 6% as official signals pointed to the blockade remaining in force—U.S. enforcement (Apr 20) and a UK-led plan
Apr 23, 2026
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Apr 22, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds plunge after reported failed Pakistan talks; maritime security posture hardens
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran in‑person diplomatic meeting by Apr 30 fell ~31pp to 57%, likely on reports the sides failed to meet in Pakist
Apr 22, 2026
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Apr 22, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds plunge on lack of joint confirmation and fresh Hormuz risks
The market fell 35pp to 24% over 24h, likely on the absence of a mutually confirmed US–Iran extension before the Apr 22 deadline and new Hor
Apr 22, 2026