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Analysis · Polymarket Analysis| Sep 20, 2026

‘Trump x Greenland deal by Sep 23’ surges on Trump’s claim and official Arctic security signals

Price jumped 19.5pp to 75% in 24h, likely on Trump’s announcement of a U.S.–Denmark Greenland deal and Greenland/Danish government notices pointing to an expected Arctic security agreement.

Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? chart

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Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis

Xi US-visit odds climb to high-90s on summit analysis and UNGA travel signals

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis

Bab el-Mandeb closure odds drop sharply as escorts signaled; weekly energy benchmarks ease

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis

Saudi East–West pipeline restart odds surge; repricing follows Yemen-related official statements and elevated Brent

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis

Israel–Lebanon meeting odds spike to 98% on late-stage repricing of qualifying criteria

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US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 15, 2026

Odds of US ending Iran blockade by Sep 30 tick up on EU export-control update and recent Quad statement

Price rose to 14% over the last day, likely reflecting sensitivity to fresh policy signals — notably the EU’s updated dual‑use controls (Sep

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 14, 2026

Odds of an Iran–Oman Hormuz agreement plunge; traders price in time pressure and IAEA-focused Iran diplomacy

The market fell 22 pp to 20% in 24h, likely on deadline-driven time decay, no qualifying joint announcements, and fresh IAEA-centered statem

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 13, 2026

Iran–Oman Hormuz pact odds jump ahead of Sep 14 deadline; late-stage repricing under Iran-focused diplomacy

Odds for a public Iran–Oman agreement on Strait of Hormuz traffic rose sharply into the Sep 14 cutoff, likely on deadline-driven repricing a

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 12, 2026

Odds of a US end to the Iran blockade by Sep 30 jump; move tracks IAEA-linked official statements

Polymarket odds for a US announcement ending/suspending the Iran blockade by Sep 30 rose 6.5pp to 21% over 24h, likely on fresh IAEA-week go

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 11, 2026

Bab el‑Mandeb closure odds jump to 21% after UK flags Houthi actions; energy backdrop adds bid

Odds that Bab el‑Mandeb is “effectively closed” by Oct 31 climbed 11.5 pp to 21%, likely on the UK’s Sept 10 FCDO statement on Yemen/Houthi

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 10, 2026

Odds of US announcing end to Iran blockade by Dec 31 rise; repricing follows official signals and term-structure divergence

The market climbed 4.6 pp to 59.5% over 24h, likely on traders differentiating near-term from year-end outcomes after fresh US and UK govern

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 9, 2026

Eizenkot PM odds surge; coordinated UK–Canada–France settlement actions likely catalyst

Polymarket odds that Gadi Eizenkot becomes Israel’s next prime minister rose ~5 pp in 24h to 57%, likely on coordinated UK/Canada/France mea

Israel closes its airspace by September 30? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 8, 2026

Israel airspace-closure odds surge to ~96% amid Iran tensions and official condemnations

Implied odds that Israel will initiate a major airspace closure by Sep 30 jumped 22pp to 95.8% in 24h, likely reflecting heightened regional

Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by October 31? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 7, 2026

Ternuvate incursion odds spike to 98.6% on escalation cues and contract mechanics

The market jumped 37pp to 98.6% in 24h, likely as traders priced heightened conflict signals and the ISW-based resolution terms that apply t

Israel closes its airspace by September 30? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 6, 2026

Israel airspace-closure odds spike to 69% after new regional security reports

Odds that Israel closes its airspace by Sep 30 jumped ~29pp to 69%, likely reflecting trader reaction to fresh AP reports of Israel–Hezbolla

Israel closes its airspace by September 30? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 5, 2026

Israel airspace-closure odds jump; traders key on Iran-related headlines and allied airspace focus

Polymarket odds that Israel will close its airspace by Sept. 30 spiked to 40% (up 29.5pp in 24h), likely on Iran-linked security headlines a

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 4, 2026

Strait of Hormuz ‘normal traffic by Dec 31’ odds rebound on US claim lanes are open, mines destroyed

Polymarket odds rose 2.5pp to 28% after a US State Department briefing said mines were destroyed and the straits “will remain open,” likely