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Analysis · Polymarket Analysis| Aug 2, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds rise to 27% amid Iran strike rhetoric and official security statements
Odds that Israel will close its airspace by Aug 15 rose to 27% (+2.5pp/24h), likely on heightened regional security signals including Iran-related rhetoric and government statements on Israel-Palestine.
Israel closes its airspace by August 15? chart

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Most recent prediction market briefings.

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More articles

43 posts
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jul 28, 2026
US–Iran halt odds surge to 95% on reported attack pause and mediator progress
Polymarket odds for a US announcement halting offensive operations against Iran jumped ~54 points to 95.6%, likely on reports of a US–Iran p
Jul 28, 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jul 27, 2026
Bab el‑Mandeb ‘closure’ odds fall sharply; EU supply assurance and US–Iran pause in strikes cited
The market dropped 3pp to 15% on the day and 9.5pp on the week, likely reflecting EU assurances of no immediate oil supply risk and a report
Jul 27, 2026
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jul 26, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds drop sharply; de-escalation signals and benign supply readout weigh on risk
Odds that Israel will order a major airspace closure fell 9.5 pp to 36% over 24h, likely reflecting reports of no new U.S. strikes on Iran a
Jul 26, 2026
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jul 25, 2026
Trump–Netanyahu meeting odds surge to 90% on White House scheduling signal and intensifying Iran conflict
The market jumped 62pp to 90%, likely on the White House confirming a Trump–Zelenskyy meeting next week and U.S. government reports of conti
Jul 25, 2026
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jul 24, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds surge to 35% on extreme weekly repricing amid Iran-war headlines and EU policy signals
Polymarket odds that Israel closes its airspace by July 31 jumped 6.5pp to 35%, likely reflecting concentrated Iran-war news and a flurry of
Jul 24, 2026
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jul 23, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds jump to 27% on fresh Iran–Israel escalation reports
The market rose 6.5pp to 27% in 24h, likely reacting to AP reports on July 22 of Iranian strikes near Israel and new U.S. strikes, which rai
Jul 23, 2026
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jul 22, 2026
Syrskyi-out market spikes to 99.8% after reports of his dismissal; Drapatyi named as replacement
The contract surged 31.45 pp to 99.8% after AP and NPR reported on July 21 that President Zelenskyy dismissed Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi and app
Jul 22, 2026
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jul 21, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds drop to 20% as July 31 window narrows; related tail-risk markets also fall
Pricing fell 9.5pp to 20% over 24h, likely on time-window compression and a lack of fresh official closure signals, with parallel near-term
Jul 21, 2026
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jul 20, 2026
Gadi Eizenkot PM odds surge to 52% as traders rotate from Netanyahu; extreme 7d repricing
Eizenkot’s contract climbed about 12pp over 7 days to ~52%, likely driven by rotation away from Netanyahu’s line and strong on-exchange flow
Jul 20, 2026
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jul 19, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei end-2026 odds fall; U.S.–Iran escalation and UK FCDO censure likely drivers
Probability that Mojtaba Khamenei is Iran’s de facto head of state at end-2026 fell 4.15 pp to 73.2%, likely on July 18 reports of U.S.–Iran
Jul 19, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jul 18, 2026
U.S.–Iran invasion market jumps to 29% on escalatory strikes; CENTCOM confirms new Iran strikes
Probability rose 6pp to 29% in 24h, likely on reports of U.S. strikes inside Iran and Iranian retaliation, reinforced by a U.S. Central Comm
Jul 18, 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jul 17, 2026
Bab el-Mandeb closure-by-Aug odds jump on Yemen escalation headlines; extreme 24h spike
Polymarket odds for a PortWatch-defined Bab el‑Mandeb “effective closure” rose 7.5 pp to 19% in 24h, likely on AP reports of Houthi escalati
Jul 17, 2026