Polymarket Briefs | Global Political Spotlight

Top Movers Closing Soon Resolved Search Briefs RSS Feeds

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis| Sep 14, 2026

Odds of an Iran–Oman Hormuz agreement plunge; traders price in time pressure and IAEA-focused Iran diplomacy

The market fell 22 pp to 20% in 24h, likely on deadline-driven time decay, no qualifying joint announcements, and fresh IAEA-centered statements on Iran from the UK and partners.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? chart

Latest Updates

Most recent prediction market briefings.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis

Iran–Oman Hormuz pact odds jump ahead of Sep 14 deadline; late-stage repricing under Iran-focused diplomacy

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis

Odds of a US end to the Iran blockade by Sep 30 jump; move tracks IAEA-linked official statements

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis

Bab el‑Mandeb closure odds jump to 21% after UK flags Houthi actions; energy backdrop adds bid

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis

Odds of US announcing end to Iran blockade by Dec 31 rise; repricing follows official signals and term-structure divergence

More articles

43 posts

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 9, 2026

Eizenkot PM odds surge; coordinated UK–Canada–France settlement actions likely catalyst

Polymarket odds that Gadi Eizenkot becomes Israel’s next prime minister rose ~5 pp in 24h to 57%, likely on coordinated UK/Canada/France mea

Israel closes its airspace by September 30? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 8, 2026

Israel airspace-closure odds surge to ~96% amid Iran tensions and official condemnations

Implied odds that Israel will initiate a major airspace closure by Sep 30 jumped 22pp to 95.8% in 24h, likely reflecting heightened regional

Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by October 31? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 7, 2026

Ternuvate incursion odds spike to 98.6% on escalation cues and contract mechanics

The market jumped 37pp to 98.6% in 24h, likely as traders priced heightened conflict signals and the ISW-based resolution terms that apply t

Israel closes its airspace by September 30? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 6, 2026

Israel airspace-closure odds spike to 69% after new regional security reports

Odds that Israel closes its airspace by Sep 30 jumped ~29pp to 69%, likely reflecting trader reaction to fresh AP reports of Israel–Hezbolla

Israel closes its airspace by September 30? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 5, 2026

Israel airspace-closure odds jump; traders key on Iran-related headlines and allied airspace focus

Polymarket odds that Israel will close its airspace by Sept. 30 spiked to 40% (up 29.5pp in 24h), likely on Iran-linked security headlines a

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 4, 2026

Strait of Hormuz ‘normal traffic by Dec 31’ odds rebound on US claim lanes are open, mines destroyed

Polymarket odds rose 2.5pp to 28% after a US State Department briefing said mines were destroyed and the straits “will remain open,” likely

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 3, 2026

Odds of US ending Iran blockade plunge on State Dept vow to keep straits open; fresh clashes cited

Polymarket odds that the US will announce an end to its Iran naval blockade by Sep 21 fell sharply, likely on Sept 1 State Dept remarks affi

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 2, 2026

Odds of US announcing end of Iranian blockade by Sept 14 plunge on renewed hostilities

Polymarket pricing fell sharply for a US announcement ending its Iran naval blockade, likely on reports of fresh US strikes in Iran and no q

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 1, 2026

US end-of-Iranian-blockade (Oct 31) odds jump on extreme 24h repricing; no new US policy signal

The Oct 31 contract rose 6.5pp to 44% on an extreme 24h spike, likely a timing reprice alongside a smaller uptick in the year-end variant an

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Aug 31, 2026

Odds of a US announcement ending the Iran blockade drop; AP reports strikes and new sanctions plan

Pricing fell 1.5pp on the day and 11.5pp on the week, likely on reports of fresh US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and plans to sanction

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Aug 30, 2026

Odds of US announcing end of Iranian blockade by Dec 31 drop ~6pp on no official signal; oil softer

Polymarket’s Dec 31, 2026 contract fell 5.65pp to 62.6% over 24h, likely reflecting the absence of any qualifying U.S. announcement and soft

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? chart

Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Aug 29, 2026

Netanyahu ‘Next PM’ odds jump 7pp; move aligns with UK-Israel ceasefire-center dispute and UN UNSC messaging

Odds that Benjamin Netanyahu will be Israel’s next sworn-in PM rose to 32% (+7pp, 24h), likely reflecting fresh UK government statements and