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Analysis · Polymarket Analysis| Jun 18, 2026
Hormuz ‘normal by June’ odds jump on EU-backed US–Iran agreement and leaked reopening terms
Polymarket odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by end-June rose 4.5pp to 22%, likely on an EU-backed US–Iran understanding and reports that reopening terms include restored passage.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? chart

Latest Updates

Most recent prediction market briefings.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis
Iran enrichment-end odds jump on official US–Iran deal signals and impending Geneva talks
Jun 17, 2026
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis
Israel–Iran peace odds drop 6.8pp as official signals center on US–Iran deal and gaps over Lebanon persist
Jun 16, 2026
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis
US–Iran agreement market spikes to 99.7% on June 15 deal announcements and EU confirmation
Jun 16, 2026
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis
US–Iran ceasefire-extension market spikes to 99.9% after NPR reports announced deal; late-day diplomacy cited
Jun 15, 2026

More articles

43 posts
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jun 14, 2026
US–Iran nuclear deal odds surge to 62% on reports of near-term accord; Quad IAEA action frames pressure
Odds jumped 17.5pp to 62% in 24h, likely on Reuters/AP reports of a possible U.S.–Iran agreement within days and coordinated Quad moves at t
Jun 14, 2026
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jun 13, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds surge to 51% on reports of imminent memorandum and cease-fire framework
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by July 31 rose 9.5 pp to 51%, likely on reports of an imminent Geneva memorandum and cea
Jun 13, 2026
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jun 12, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds jump to 70% after Trump signals deal "soon" and halts further strikes
Polymarket odds for a US-announced Iran ceasefire extension by June 30 spiked to 70% (+35.5pp), likely on Trump’s June 11 comment a deal is
Jun 12, 2026
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jun 11, 2026
‘Project Freedom’ odds surge to 95% on US/Iran operations signals and allied statements
Polymarket odds that Trump will restart Project Freedom by June 30 spiked ~83pp to 95%, likely on US government signaling of planned Iran op
Jun 11, 2026
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jun 10, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds drop sharply into deadline, amid no official closure signals in cited gov’t statements
Polymarket odds that Israel would close its airspace by June 9 fell to ~2%, an extreme 24h drop, likely as the deadline approached without a
Jun 10, 2026
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jun 9, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds fall; traders discount broad shutdown despite regional flare-ups
Pricing for an Israel-wide airspace shutdown by June 15 fell sharply over the past day, likely reflecting reports of routine resuming after
Jun 9, 2026
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jun 8, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds surge to 99.6% amid reports of missile launch and drone shootdowns
Polymarket odds that Iran closes its airspace by June 8 jumped 96.9 pp to 99.6%, apparently driven by June 7 reports of an Iranian missile a
Jun 8, 2026
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jun 7, 2026
US–Iran permanent peace odds plunge after reported US shootdown of Iranian drones
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026 fell 11.5pp to 28% over 24h, likely on fresh hostilities reported by NPR
Jun 7, 2026
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jun 6, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds slump to 8% as June 15 deadline nears; no official deal signals
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran 'permanent peace' by June 15 fell 5.5pp to 8%, likely on deadline-driven repricing and no government confirmat
Jun 6, 2026
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jun 5, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds plunge; repricing on IAEA monitoring warning and no US signal
Polymarket odds for a US-announced Iran ceasefire extension by June 7 fell 5.5pp to 6%, likely on adverse Iran nuclear oversight news and th
Jun 5, 2026
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jun 4, 2026
Polymarket odds of Israel extending Lebanon ceasefire plunge; move follows UK UN warning and reports of fresh Israeli strikes
Contract fell 37.5pp to 46% over 24h, likely on reports of new Israeli strikes near Beirut and a UK statement at the UN warning Blue Line es
Jun 4, 2026
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Jun 3, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds rebound ~6pp; repricing tracks weaker ceasefire bets despite soft oil
The market rose to 26.5% (+6.4pp, 24h), likely reflecting repricing alongside falling ceasefire/diplomacy odds, while broader energy and vol
Jun 3, 2026