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Analysis · Polymarket Analysis| Oct 13, 2026
NATO–Russia clash odds jump to 25% amid conflicting ‘energy ceasefire’ signals and fresh strike claims
Odds for a NATO–Russia military clash by Dec 31, 2026 rose 4.5 pp to 25%, likely reflecting mixed government statements on an ‘energy ceasefire’ and reports of continued Russian strikes.
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? chart

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Most recent prediction market briefings.

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US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? chart
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43 posts
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Oct 8, 2026
Odds of U.S. announcing end of Iranian blockade by Oct 15 drop; time window and hardline signals weigh
Price fell 1.5 pp to 11% over 24h, likely on the nearing Oct 15 deadline without a qualifying U.S. announcement and fresh official statement
Oct 8, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Oct 7, 2026
Odds of US announcing end to Iran blockade fall; Oct 5 State Dept joint statement points to continued pressure
Polymarket pricing for a US announcement ending the Iran blockade by Dec 31, 2026 fell ~2.4 pp on the day and ~9.8 pp on the week, amid an O
Oct 7, 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Oct 6, 2026
Bab el‑Mandeb closure odds fall sharply; extreme 24h repricing amid narrowing window and softer oil
Odds that the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait is “effectively closed” by Oct 31 fell 2.5pp to 6% in 24h—an extreme move—likely reflecting the shrinking
Oct 6, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Oct 5, 2026
Iran blockade-end odds rebound to 13% as Oct 15 window nears; week still lower after G7 stance
Polymarket odds for a U.S. announcement ending the Iran naval blockade rose 3.5pp to 13% in 24h, likely on deadline-driven positioning, desp
Oct 5, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Oct 4, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade by Nov 30 fall; G7 signals firmness on Hormuz
The market fell 4pp to 33%, likely reacting to the Oct 2 G7 leaders’ statement commending US efforts in the Strait of Hormuz and condemning
Oct 4, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Oct 3, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade by Oct 15 drop sharply as G7 backs enforcement and fuels release
Polymarket probability fell 3pp to 9% after G7 leaders condemned Iran, praised US efforts in the Strait of Hormuz, and launched a 100m-barre
Oct 3, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Oct 2, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade by Dec 31 drop sharply on firm sanctions signals and proxy-arrest news
Polymarket odds for a US announcement ending the Iran naval blockade by Dec 31, 2026 fell ~6pp to 53%, likely reflecting a firm UN-sanctions
Oct 2, 2026
Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Oct 1, 2026
Trump–Milei September 2026 meeting market surges to 99.9% as window closes; end‑of‑month positioning and official late‑September diplomacy in focus
Polymarket odds for a Trump–Milei meeting in September 2026 jumped 34pp to 99.9% into expiry, likely driven by deadline effects and contempo
Oct 1, 2026
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 30, 2026
US–Iran “next meeting by Sept 30” odds plunge into deadline as no official signals emerge
Polymarket odds fell 9.7pp to 2.8% in 24h, likely as traders priced the near-expiry window without any US or Iranian government confirmation
Sep 30, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 29, 2026
Odds of US announcing end of Iran blockade by Oct 31 drop to 26% on signals of continued standoff
Pricing fell to 26% as reports of a rejected Iran pause and an Australian government statement on the ongoing Hormuz closure reduced expecta
Sep 29, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 28, 2026
Odds for Hormuz traffic ‘return to normal’ fall sharply as deadline nears and governments flag ongoing disruption
Price fell 2.5 pp to 5% amid an extreme 24h downdraft, likely on approaching Oct 31 cutoff and official calls for the urgent re‑opening of H
Sep 28, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? chart
Analysis · Polymarket Analysis · Sep 27, 2026
Odds slip for US announcing end of Iran blockade by Dec 31 after Trump rejects Hormuz plan
Polymarket odds for a US announcement ending the Iranian naval blockade fell 7.6pp, likely on President Trump rejecting an Iranian reopening
Sep 27, 2026