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Polymarket Analysis • May 20, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 34% on official warnings over Strait of Hormuz disruption
Polymarket odds for a major Iranian airspace closure by May 24 rose 9.5pp to 34% in 24h, likely on UK/EU warnings about Hormuz disruptions and new signs of regional strain.
YES 17.0%Closes May 24, 2026
Polymarket Analysis • May 18, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 30% on Hormuz security statements and regional incident flow
Pricing for a May 24 Iranian airspace closure rose to 30%, likely reflecting official statements on a multinational Hormuz mission and fresh regional security reports.
YES 17.0%Closes May 24, 2026