Polymarket Topic Hub
US Policy Polymarket Briefs
Congress, executive action, and federal policy risk markets in the US.
15 Topic Results
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Polymarket Analysis • Oct 2, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade by Dec 31 drop sharply on firm sanctions signals and proxy-arrest news
Polymarket odds for a US announcement ending the Iran naval blockade by Dec 31, 2026 fell ~6pp to 53%, likely reflecting a firm UN-sanctions stance cited by the UK (Oct 1) and AP reporting of a US arrest tied to Iran-backed Houthis.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 29, 2026
Odds of US announcing end of Iran blockade by Oct 31 drop to 26% on signals of continued standoff
Pricing fell to 26% as reports of a rejected Iran pause and an Australian government statement on the ongoing Hormuz closure reduced expectations of a near-term US announcement.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 24, 2026
Iran blockade end-by-Oct 31 odds slip; new Canadian sanctions and Australian stance signal no easing
Polymarket probability for a US announcement ending the Iran naval blockade by Oct 31 dipped 1.5 pp to 32%, likely reflecting fresh Canadian sanctions and Australia’s maritime posture emphasizing continued pressure on Iran.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 10, 2026
Odds of US announcing end to Iran blockade by Dec 31 rise; repricing follows official signals and term-structure divergence
The market climbed 4.6 pp to 59.5% over 24h, likely on traders differentiating near-term from year-end outcomes after fresh US and UK government signals kept current operations and sanctions in focus.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 4, 2026
Strait of Hormuz ‘normal traffic by Dec 31’ odds rebound on US claim lanes are open, mines destroyed
Polymarket odds rose 2.5pp to 28% after a US State Department briefing said mines were destroyed and the straits “will remain open,” likely offsetting earlier risk-off moves tied to regional strikes.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 1, 2026
US end-of-Iranian-blockade (Oct 31) odds jump on extreme 24h repricing; no new US policy signal
The Oct 31 contract rose 6.5pp to 44% on an extreme 24h spike, likely a timing reprice alongside a smaller uptick in the year-end variant and despite no new US government announcement.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 31, 2026
Odds of a US announcement ending the Iran blockade drop; AP reports strikes and new sanctions plan
Pricing fell 1.5pp on the day and 11.5pp on the week, likely on reports of fresh US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and plans to sanction another bank tied to Iran transactions.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 28, 2026
Iran–Oman Hormuz pact odds plunge; selloff follows US pressure signals and no qualifying announcements
The market fell 21.5pp to 37% over 24h, likely on heightened US pressure around Iran trade and the absence of any joint Iran–Oman statement that would meet the market’s strict criteria.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 26, 2026
Odds of a US announcement ending Iran blockade jump; media on shortages, new sanctions likely catalyze move
The market rose 11.5pp to 40% over 24h, an extreme move likely tied to clustered reporting on Iran’s fuel shortages and fresh US sanctions coverage, despite no new US government statement ending the blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 25, 2026
Odds of a US-announced end to the Iran blockade by Sept 7 drop to 6% after fresh sanctions push
Contracts fell 6pp to 6% over 24h, likely on NPR-reported US sanctions escalation against Iran (Aug 24) and no offsetting official signals of a blockade suspension.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 12, 2026
Odds of a US announcement ending Iran blockade tick up; AP sanctions pivot cited while oil strength caps rebound
The market rose 4pp to 14% over 24h, likely on AP reporting of an Aug 11 US pivot back to Iran sanctions, but a steep 7d slide persists amid no official US signal and elevated oil prices.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 8, 2026
Odds jump for US announcing end of Iran blockade by Aug 31; move tracks AP report and timeline shift
Probability rose 9.5 pp to 78%, likely on fresh reporting about potential Iran deal mechanics and a trader shift toward a mid/late‑August announcement window.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 7, 2026
Odds of US announcing end of Iranian blockade by Aug 7 plunge on no official signal and hostile Iranian proposal
The Aug 7 contract fell 21.1pp to 15.5% as the deadline approached without a qualifying US announcement; Iranian hardline moves and lack of de‑escalatory signals likely weighed.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 25, 2026
Trump–Netanyahu meeting odds surge to 90% on White House scheduling signal and intensifying Iran conflict
The market jumped 62pp to 90%, likely on the White House confirming a Trump–Zelenskyy meeting next week and U.S. government reports of continued strikes on Iran that concentrate near‑term diplomacy.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 15, 2026
US Hormuz-fee odds plunge; traders focus on blockade signals and Hill pushback
Polymarket odds that the US will collect Hormuz transit/protection fees by Dec 31, 2026 fell 26pp to 9%, likely reflecting emphasis on blockade/strikes over fee programs and Senate Democrats’ block of a defense bill.