Polymarket Topic Hub
US Policy Polymarket Briefs
Congress, executive action, and federal policy risk markets in the US.
5 Topic Results
Topic matching combines canonical topic keywords with optional Sanity topic synonyms.
Polymarket Analysis • May 14, 2026
US–Iran permanent peace odds fall; UK sanctions and Hormuz mission weigh on deal prospects
The market fell 3.5pp to 13% in 24h (−16pp w/w), likely reflecting UK sanctions on Iranian targets and London’s new role in a Strait of Hormuz security mission, which undercut near‑term prospects for a formal deal.
Polymarket Analysis • May 11, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds fall 11.5pp after US rejects Iranian reply; hardline US posture underscored
Polymarket probability for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 fell 11.5pp to 39%, likely on reports that President Trump rejected Iran’s latest ceasefire response and on firm US policy signals.
Polymarket Analysis • May 9, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ by May 11 odds fall; US stance, renewed strikes weigh on near‑term window
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by May 11 slid 3.5pp to 6% in 24h, likely on firm US government messaging about defensive naval operations and sanctions plus reports of fresh regional attacks.
Polymarket Analysis • May 6, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds plunge to 9% as U.S. unveils ‘Project Freedom’ and diplomacy signals ease near-term risk
Polymarket odds that Iran closes its airspace by May 8 fell 16.5 pp to 9%, likely on the U.S. ‘Project Freedom’ announcement and reports of a pause for talks, reducing perceived near-term escalation.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 16, 2026
US–Iran permanent peace odds surge to 59% amid US pivot to economic pressure and regional de-escalation signals
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026 jumped into the high‑50s, likely reflecting US policy emphasis on economic pressure, congressional debate, and rising regional ceasefire pricing.