Polymarket Topic Hub
US Policy Polymarket Briefs
Congress, executive action, and federal policy risk markets in the US.
6 Topic Results
Topic matching combines canonical topic keywords with optional Sanity topic synonyms.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 25, 2026
US–Iran “Final Nuclear Deal” odds fall; funding request tied to Iran conflict outweighs IAEA inspection signal
The market slipped 4.5pp to 24% over 24h, likely on the White House’s June 24 request for $87.6B including costs tied to a conflict with Iran, which outweighed IAEA comments on interim inspections.
Polymarket Analysis • May 22, 2026
Iran ceasefire market jumps to 99.7% as window nears close with no qualifying U.S. strike reports
Yes odds rose 2.3pp on the day (to 99.7%) as the May 21 (ET) window closed without credible reporting of a U.S. kinetic strike on Iranian soil; congressional debate focused on oversight, not action.
Polymarket Analysis • May 14, 2026
US–Iran permanent peace odds fall; UK sanctions and Hormuz mission weigh on deal prospects
The market fell 3.5pp to 13% in 24h (−16pp w/w), likely reflecting UK sanctions on Iranian targets and London’s new role in a Strait of Hormuz security mission, which undercut near‑term prospects for a formal deal.
Polymarket Analysis • May 11, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds fall 11.5pp after US rejects Iranian reply; hardline US posture underscored
Polymarket probability for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 fell 11.5pp to 39%, likely on reports that President Trump rejected Iran’s latest ceasefire response and on firm US policy signals.
Polymarket Analysis • May 9, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ by May 11 odds fall; US stance, renewed strikes weigh on near‑term window
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by May 11 slid 3.5pp to 6% in 24h, likely on firm US government messaging about defensive naval operations and sanctions plus reports of fresh regional attacks.
Polymarket Analysis • May 6, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds plunge to 9% as U.S. unveils ‘Project Freedom’ and diplomacy signals ease near-term risk
Polymarket odds that Iran closes its airspace by May 8 fell 16.5 pp to 9%, likely on the U.S. ‘Project Freedom’ announcement and reports of a pause for talks, reducing perceived near-term escalation.