Polymarket Topic Hub
Elections Polymarket Briefs
Election-driven markets, polling moves, and campaign probability shifts.
5 Topic Results
Topic matching combines canonical topic keywords with optional Sanity topic synonyms.
Polymarket Analysis • May 19, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds jump after reported US strike cancellation; de‑escalation signal leads
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 rose 10.5pp to 36% over 24h, likely on AP’s report that President Trump called off a planned strike on Iran at Gulf allies’ request.
Polymarket Analysis • May 12, 2026
Trump China-visit market surges to ~94% on clustered reports of a Trump–Xi summit and imminent travel
Probability jumped 10.6 pp in 24h (75.1 pp in 7d) to ~94%, likely on May 11 reports of a Trump–Xi summit and that President Trump is heading to China this week.
Polymarket Analysis • May 11, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds fall 11.5pp after US rejects Iranian reply; hardline US posture underscored
Polymarket probability for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 fell 11.5pp to 39%, likely on reports that President Trump rejected Iran’s latest ceasefire response and on firm US policy signals.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 7, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 15 surges to 57% on Trump ultimatum and official US Iran-ops briefings
The market jumped 41.5pp to 57%, as traders appeared to react to President Trump’s 8 p.m. ET Iran deadline and fresh U.S. government disclosures of operations inside Iran.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
Odds Trump announces end of Iran operations by Mar 31 drop sharply amid signs of continued campaign and new troop deployments
The market fell 7.5pp to 13%, likely reflecting reports of sustained U.S. strike tempo and fresh troop deployments that cut the odds of an imminent “end of operations” announcement.