Polymarket Topic Hub
Elections Polymarket Briefs
Election-driven markets, polling moves, and campaign probability shifts.
4 Topic Results
Topic matching combines canonical topic keywords with optional Sanity topic synonyms.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 22, 2026
Syrskyi-out market spikes to 99.8% after reports of his dismissal; Drapatyi named as replacement
The contract surged 31.45 pp to 99.8% after AP and NPR reported on July 21 that President Zelenskyy dismissed Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi and appointed Mykhailo Drapatyi as commander-in-chief.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 20, 2026
Gadi Eizenkot PM odds surge to 52% as traders rotate from Netanyahu; extreme 7d repricing
Eizenkot’s contract climbed about 12pp over 7 days to ~52%, likely driven by rotation away from Netanyahu’s line and strong on-exchange flows rather than a clear official trigger.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 4, 2026
Gadi Eizenkot contract jumps; rotation from Netanyahu as EU scrutiny of Israel surfaces
Odds for Gadi Eizenkot as Israel’s next PM rose by a few points on an extreme 24h move, likely as traders rotated from Netanyahu and digested fresh EU parliamentary scrutiny and regional headlines.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 30, 2026
Vučić ‘out by June 30, 2026’ market spikes to near-certainty on step-down statement and imminent cutoff
Polymarket odds surged to near 100% after reports on June 29 that Aleksandar Vučić said he will step down, with the contract’s immediate-resolution-on-announcement rule and the June 30 cutoff concentrating conviction.