Polymarket Topic Hub
Elections Polymarket Briefs
Election-driven markets, polling moves, and campaign probability shifts.
5 Topic Results
Topic matching combines canonical topic keywords with optional Sanity topic synonyms.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 4, 2026
Gadi Eizenkot contract jumps; rotation from Netanyahu as EU scrutiny of Israel surfaces
Odds for Gadi Eizenkot as Israel’s next PM rose by a few points on an extreme 24h move, likely as traders rotated from Netanyahu and digested fresh EU parliamentary scrutiny and regional headlines.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 30, 2026
Vučić ‘out by June 30, 2026’ market spikes to near-certainty on step-down statement and imminent cutoff
Polymarket odds surged to near 100% after reports on June 29 that Aleksandar Vučić said he will step down, with the contract’s immediate-resolution-on-announcement rule and the June 30 cutoff concentrating conviction.
Polymarket Analysis • May 19, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds jump after reported US strike cancellation; de‑escalation signal leads
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 rose 10.5pp to 36% over 24h, likely on AP’s report that President Trump called off a planned strike on Iran at Gulf allies’ request.
Polymarket Analysis • May 12, 2026
Trump China-visit market surges to ~94% on clustered reports of a Trump–Xi summit and imminent travel
Probability jumped 10.6 pp in 24h (75.1 pp in 7d) to ~94%, likely on May 11 reports of a Trump–Xi summit and that President Trump is heading to China this week.
Polymarket Analysis • May 11, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds fall 11.5pp after US rejects Iranian reply; hardline US posture underscored
Polymarket probability for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 fell 11.5pp to 39%, likely on reports that President Trump rejected Iran’s latest ceasefire response and on firm US policy signals.