Polymarket Topic Hub
Elections Polymarket Briefs
Election-driven markets, polling moves, and campaign probability shifts.
5 Topic Results
Topic matching combines canonical topic keywords with optional Sanity topic synonyms.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 27, 2026
Odds slip for US announcing end of Iran blockade by Dec 31 after Trump rejects Hormuz plan
Polymarket odds for a US announcement ending the Iranian naval blockade fell 7.6pp, likely on President Trump rejecting an Iranian reopening proposal and allied statements condemning Iran’s maritime actions.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 9, 2026
Eizenkot PM odds surge; coordinated UK–Canada–France settlement actions likely catalyst
Polymarket odds that Gadi Eizenkot becomes Israel’s next prime minister rose ~5 pp in 24h to 57%, likely on coordinated UK/Canada/France measures on West Bank settlements and UK policy statements.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 29, 2026
Netanyahu ‘Next PM’ odds jump 7pp; move aligns with UK-Israel ceasefire-center dispute and UN UNSC messaging
Odds that Benjamin Netanyahu will be Israel’s next sworn-in PM rose to 32% (+7pp, 24h), likely reflecting fresh UK government statements and AP reporting on Gaza coordination tensions.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 22, 2026
Syrskyi-out market spikes to 99.8% after reports of his dismissal; Drapatyi named as replacement
The contract surged 31.45 pp to 99.8% after AP and NPR reported on July 21 that President Zelenskyy dismissed Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi and appointed Mykhailo Drapatyi as commander-in-chief.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 20, 2026
Gadi Eizenkot PM odds surge to 52% as traders rotate from Netanyahu; extreme 7d repricing
Eizenkot’s contract climbed about 12pp over 7 days to ~52%, likely driven by rotation away from Netanyahu’s line and strong on-exchange flows rather than a clear official trigger.