Polymarket Topic Hub
Macro Polymarket Briefs
Rates, inflation, growth, and cross-asset macro-policy markets.
3 Topic Results
Topic matching combines canonical topic keywords with optional Sanity topic synonyms.
Polymarket Analysis • May 13, 2026
Hezbollah disarm odds jump on heavy trading despite hardline rhetoric in fresh reports
The market’s Yes probability rose ~6.5pp to 19% in 24 hours, likely on concentrated buying and liquidity, even as same-day reports showed Hezbollah hardening its stance on talks with Israel.
Polymarket Analysis • May 4, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds fall sharply; slight uptick in Iran–US deal markets and steady oil backdrop
Pricing for an Iran airspace closure by May 8 dropped ~2.5pp to 12% over 24h, likely reflecting modest de-escalation cues in related Iran–US diplomacy markets and calm macro risk gauges.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 8, 2026
U.S.–Iran invasion odds plunge after 2-week ceasefire; UK confirms truce, oil retreats
Polymarket odds that the U.S. will invade Iran before 2027 fell 32.5 points to 28%, likely on the two-week ceasefire taking effect and confirmed by the UK government, alongside softer oil and risk-on macro moves.