Polymarket Topic Hub
Macro Polymarket Briefs
Rates, inflation, growth, and cross-asset macro-policy markets.
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Polymarket Analysis • May 13, 2026
Hezbollah disarm odds jump on heavy trading despite hardline rhetoric in fresh reports
The market’s Yes probability rose ~6.5pp to 19% in 24 hours, likely on concentrated buying and liquidity, even as same-day reports showed Hezbollah hardening its stance on talks with Israel.
YES 15.0%Closes Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket Analysis • May 4, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds fall sharply; slight uptick in Iran–US deal markets and steady oil backdrop
Pricing for an Iran airspace closure by May 8 dropped ~2.5pp to 12% over 24h, likely reflecting modest de-escalation cues in related Iran–US diplomacy markets and calm macro risk gauges.
YES 0.0%Resolved