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Middle East Polymarket Briefs
Middle East risk markets including escalation, diplomacy, and security developments.
48 Topic Results
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Polymarket Analysis • Oct 4, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade by Nov 30 fall; G7 signals firmness on Hormuz
The market fell 4pp to 33%, likely reacting to the Oct 2 G7 leaders’ statement commending US efforts in the Strait of Hormuz and condemning Iran’s disruptions, alongside UK and Australian actions reinforcing pressure on Iran-linked actors.
Polymarket Analysis • Oct 3, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade by Oct 15 drop sharply as G7 backs enforcement and fuels release
Polymarket probability fell 3pp to 9% after G7 leaders condemned Iran, praised US efforts in the Strait of Hormuz, and launched a 100m-barrel stocks release—lowering odds of a near‑term US announcement ending the blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Oct 2, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade by Dec 31 drop sharply on firm sanctions signals and proxy-arrest news
Polymarket odds for a US announcement ending the Iran naval blockade by Dec 31, 2026 fell ~6pp to 53%, likely reflecting a firm UN-sanctions stance cited by the UK (Oct 1) and AP reporting of a US arrest tied to Iran-backed Houthis.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 30, 2026
US–Iran “next meeting by Sept 30” odds plunge into deadline as no official signals emerge
Polymarket odds fell 9.7pp to 2.8% in 24h, likely as traders priced the near-expiry window without any US or Iranian government confirmation of a follow‑on senior meeting.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 29, 2026
Odds of US announcing end of Iran blockade by Oct 31 drop to 26% on signals of continued standoff
Pricing fell to 26% as reports of a rejected Iran pause and an Australian government statement on the ongoing Hormuz closure reduced expectations of a near-term US announcement.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 28, 2026
Odds for Hormuz traffic ‘return to normal’ fall sharply as deadline nears and governments flag ongoing disruption
Price fell 2.5 pp to 5% amid an extreme 24h downdraft, likely on approaching Oct 31 cutoff and official calls for the urgent re‑opening of Hormuz.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 27, 2026
Odds slip for US announcing end of Iran blockade by Dec 31 after Trump rejects Hormuz plan
Polymarket odds for a US announcement ending the Iranian naval blockade fell 7.6pp, likely on President Trump rejecting an Iranian reopening proposal and allied statements condemning Iran’s maritime actions.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 26, 2026
Saudi East–West pipeline restart odds plunge as deadline nears with no Saudi confirmation
Probability fell 14.5pp to 21% in 24h, likely reflecting the fast-approaching Oct 1 market deadline without a qualifying Saudi government restart announcement, while official statements focused on maritime security.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 25, 2026
Saudi East–West pipeline restart odds fall; G7/UK signals of sustained risk weigh on near-term bets
Odds that Saudi Arabia’s East–West oil pipeline restarts by Oct 15 fell 11.5pp to 60% in 24h, likely reflecting G7 condemnation of Houthi strikes (Sep 22) and UK added support to Riyadh (Sep 22).
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 24, 2026
Iran blockade end-by-Oct 31 odds slip; new Canadian sanctions and Australian stance signal no easing
Polymarket probability for a US announcement ending the Iran naval blockade by Oct 31 dipped 1.5 pp to 32%, likely reflecting fresh Canadian sanctions and Australia’s maritime posture emphasizing continued pressure on Iran.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 23, 2026
Saudi East–West pipeline restart odds surge to 64% amid G7 censure of Houthi attacks and new UK support
Polymarket odds for a Saudi East–West pipeline restart by Sep 30 jumped 33.5 pp to 64%, likely following coordinated G7 statements on Red Sea security and the UK’s added defensive support to Saudi Arabia on Sep 22.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 17, 2026
Saudi East–West pipeline restart odds surge; repricing follows Yemen-related official statements and elevated Brent
Odds that Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline restarts by Sept. 30 jumped sharply, likely on heightened Yemen-related official statements and persistently high Brent prices that raise incentives to restore flows.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 16, 2026
Israel–Lebanon meeting odds spike to 98% on late-stage repricing of qualifying criteria
Polymarket odds jumped to 98% in the last day, likely reflecting late-stage repricing around the contract’s allowance for indirect in-person diplomacy as the Sept 18, 2026 deadline approaches.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 15, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade by Sep 30 tick up on EU export-control update and recent Quad statement
Price rose to 14% over the last day, likely reflecting sensitivity to fresh policy signals — notably the EU’s updated dual‑use controls (Sep 14) and the US–UK–France–Germany Quad statement to the IAEA on Iran (Sep 10).
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 14, 2026
Odds of an Iran–Oman Hormuz agreement plunge; traders price in time pressure and IAEA-focused Iran diplomacy
The market fell 22 pp to 20% in 24h, likely on deadline-driven time decay, no qualifying joint announcements, and fresh IAEA-centered statements on Iran from the UK and partners.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 13, 2026
Iran–Oman Hormuz pact odds jump ahead of Sep 14 deadline; late-stage repricing under Iran-focused diplomacy
Odds for a public Iran–Oman agreement on Strait of Hormuz traffic rose sharply into the Sep 14 cutoff, likely on deadline-driven repricing and Iran-related IAEA diplomacy.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 12, 2026
Odds of a US end to the Iran blockade by Sep 30 jump; move tracks IAEA-linked official statements
Polymarket odds for a US announcement ending/suspending the Iran blockade by Sep 30 rose 6.5pp to 21% over 24h, likely on fresh IAEA-week government statements and heightened energy-risk context.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 11, 2026
Bab el‑Mandeb closure odds jump to 21% after UK flags Houthi actions; energy backdrop adds bid
Odds that Bab el‑Mandeb is “effectively closed” by Oct 31 climbed 11.5 pp to 21%, likely on the UK’s Sept 10 FCDO statement on Yemen/Houthi actions and a sharp weekly rise in Brent.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 10, 2026
Odds of US announcing end to Iran blockade by Dec 31 rise; repricing follows official signals and term-structure divergence
The market climbed 4.6 pp to 59.5% over 24h, likely on traders differentiating near-term from year-end outcomes after fresh US and UK government signals kept current operations and sanctions in focus.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 9, 2026
Eizenkot PM odds surge; coordinated UK–Canada–France settlement actions likely catalyst
Polymarket odds that Gadi Eizenkot becomes Israel’s next prime minister rose ~5 pp in 24h to 57%, likely on coordinated UK/Canada/France measures on West Bank settlements and UK policy statements.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 8, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds surge to ~96% amid Iran tensions and official condemnations
Implied odds that Israel will initiate a major airspace closure by Sep 30 jumped 22pp to 95.8% in 24h, likely reflecting heightened regional risk after Iranian missile rhetoric and a Canadian government condemnation.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 6, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds spike to 69% after new regional security reports
Odds that Israel closes its airspace by Sep 30 jumped ~29pp to 69%, likely reflecting trader reaction to fresh AP reports of Israel–Hezbollah clashes and U.S.–Iran tensions.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 5, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds jump; traders key on Iran-related headlines and allied airspace focus
Polymarket odds that Israel will close its airspace by Sept. 30 spiked to 40% (up 29.5pp in 24h), likely on Iran-linked security headlines and NATO’s focus on airfield denial.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 4, 2026
Strait of Hormuz ‘normal traffic by Dec 31’ odds rebound on US claim lanes are open, mines destroyed
Polymarket odds rose 2.5pp to 28% after a US State Department briefing said mines were destroyed and the straits “will remain open,” likely offsetting earlier risk-off moves tied to regional strikes.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 3, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade plunge on State Dept vow to keep straits open; fresh clashes cited
Polymarket odds that the US will announce an end to its Iran naval blockade by Sep 21 fell sharply, likely on Sept 1 State Dept remarks affirming continued operations and AP reports of renewed attacks.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 2, 2026
Odds of US announcing end of Iranian blockade by Sept 14 plunge on renewed hostilities
Polymarket pricing fell sharply for a US announcement ending its Iran naval blockade, likely on reports of fresh US strikes in Iran and no qualifying US de-escalation signals.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 1, 2026
US end-of-Iranian-blockade (Oct 31) odds jump on extreme 24h repricing; no new US policy signal
The Oct 31 contract rose 6.5pp to 44% on an extreme 24h spike, likely a timing reprice alongside a smaller uptick in the year-end variant and despite no new US government announcement.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 31, 2026
Odds of a US announcement ending the Iran blockade drop; AP reports strikes and new sanctions plan
Pricing fell 1.5pp on the day and 11.5pp on the week, likely on reports of fresh US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and plans to sanction another bank tied to Iran transactions.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 30, 2026
Odds of US announcing end of Iranian blockade by Dec 31 drop ~6pp on no official signal; oil softer
Polymarket’s Dec 31, 2026 contract fell 5.65pp to 62.6% over 24h, likely reflecting the absence of any qualifying U.S. announcement and softer Brent crude.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 29, 2026
Netanyahu ‘Next PM’ odds jump 7pp; move aligns with UK-Israel ceasefire-center dispute and UN UNSC messaging
Odds that Benjamin Netanyahu will be Israel’s next sworn-in PM rose to 32% (+7pp, 24h), likely reflecting fresh UK government statements and AP reporting on Gaza coordination tensions.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 28, 2026
Iran–Oman Hormuz pact odds plunge; selloff follows US pressure signals and no qualifying announcements
The market fell 21.5pp to 37% over 24h, likely on heightened US pressure around Iran trade and the absence of any joint Iran–Oman statement that would meet the market’s strict criteria.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 27, 2026
Hormuz ‘normal-by-Sept 30’ odds slip to 8% after Iran ship-ban warning; policy signals underscore risk
Polymarket odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by Sept 30 fell 1.5 pp to 8%, likely on an AP report that Iran warned it could ban military ships, alongside fresh government statements highlighting ongoing regional strain.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 26, 2026
Odds of a US announcement ending Iran blockade jump; media on shortages, new sanctions likely catalyze move
The market rose 11.5pp to 40% over 24h, an extreme move likely tied to clustered reporting on Iran’s fuel shortages and fresh US sanctions coverage, despite no new US government statement ending the blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 25, 2026
Odds of a US-announced end to the Iran blockade by Sept 7 drop to 6% after fresh sanctions push
Contracts fell 6pp to 6% over 24h, likely on NPR-reported US sanctions escalation against Iran (Aug 24) and no offsetting official signals of a blockade suspension.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 24, 2026
Iran blockade-end odds jump to 19% amid cross-market repricing; no new US Iran policy signal identified
Polymarket’s “US announces end of Iranian blockade by Sep 14, 2026” rose 6.5pp to 19% in 24h, a move that appears driven by alignment with sister markets and fresh flows rather than any new US announcement on Iran.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 20, 2026
Iran–Oman Hormuz deal odds fall sharply amid UAE–Iran escalation and French expulsions
The market fell 7pp in 24h (to 52%) and 20.5pp in 7d, likely on heightened Gulf tensions after the UAE suspended trade with Iran and France expelled Iranian diplomats.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 18, 2026
Hormuz “returns to normal by Dec 31” odds drop sharply on stalled Iran deal signals; related markets weaken
The market fell 9.5pp to 34% amid reports that a proposed Iran deal deadline is expiring without agreement and related Hormuz/US-announcement markets softened, reducing confidence in year-end normalization.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 17, 2026
Odds of US announcing end to Iran blockade fall sharply as Aug 31 deadline nears and no qualifying signal appears
The market dropped 4.5pp to 16% on the day and 28.5pp over a week, likely reflecting time-decay into the Aug 31 window with no official US announcement ending the blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 16, 2026
Iran–Oman Hormuz agreement odds rebound to 37% after a 47pp weekly slide amid security incidents and official censure
Pricing recovered 3pp in 24h to 37% but is down 47pp over 7d, likely reflecting fresh Hormuz incident reports and mid‑August government statements critical of Iran, with no qualifying deal announcements evident.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 15, 2026
Odds of US announcing end of Iranian blockade by Sept 30 drop sharply on stalled talks and allied pressure signals
The market fell 14.5pp to 41% over 24h, likely on reports of stalled US–Iran diplomacy and coordinated allied statements criticizing Iran, reducing expectations of a near-term US announcement to lift the blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 14, 2026
Venezuela–Israel recognition odds plunge 45pp; repricing follows fresh Mideast security signals and UK/EP statements
Polymarket odds that Venezuela will recognize Israel by Dec 31, 2026 fell 45pp to 12% in 24h, likely on heightened regional security signals and official statements that reduced expectations for near-term diplomatic shifts.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 13, 2026
Polymarket: Odds of US announcing end of Iranian blockade plunge as deadline nears; no US signal, IEA highlights Hormuz constraints
Probability fell 7.5pp to 3% as the Aug 14 deadline approaches without a qualifying US announcement, while an IEA note underscored that a Hormuz reopening remains elusive.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 12, 2026
Odds of a US announcement ending Iran blockade tick up; AP sanctions pivot cited while oil strength caps rebound
The market rose 4pp to 14% over 24h, likely on AP reporting of an Aug 11 US pivot back to Iran sanctions, but a steep 7d slide persists amid no official US signal and elevated oil prices.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 11, 2026
Odds of U.S. declaring end to Iran blockade fall sharply; Iran’s Aug 10 stance and lack of U.S. policy signals weigh
The market fell 11.5 pp to 32% over 24h, likely reflecting Iran’s Aug 10 hardline position on Hormuz and the absence of any U.S. announcement ending the blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 10, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade by Sept 30 drop 17pp on lack of official signal
The market fell to 64% (−17pp, 24h), likely reflecting the absence of any qualifying U.S. announcement ending or suspending the Iran naval blockade, with declines echoed in nearer-dated markets.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 9, 2026
US end‑of‑Iran‑blockade odds plunge 30pp on no US announcement as Aug 15 deadline nears
Polymarket contract fell 30pp to 34% in 24h, apparently on the absence of any qualifying US government statement ending the Iran naval blockade as the Aug 15 window approaches.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 8, 2026
Odds jump for US announcing end of Iran blockade by Aug 31; move tracks AP report and timeline shift
Probability rose 9.5 pp to 78%, likely on fresh reporting about potential Iran deal mechanics and a trader shift toward a mid/late‑August announcement window.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 7, 2026
Odds of US announcing end of Iranian blockade by Aug 7 plunge on no official signal and hostile Iranian proposal
The Aug 7 contract fell 21.1pp to 15.5% as the deadline approached without a qualifying US announcement; Iranian hardline moves and lack of de‑escalatory signals likely weighed.