Polymarket Topic Hub
Middle East Polymarket Briefs
Middle East risk markets including escalation, diplomacy, and security developments.
48 Topic Results
Topic matching combines canonical topic keywords with optional Sanity topic synonyms.
Polymarket Analysis • May 21, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds plunge into low single digits as May 21 deadline nears; UK/EU signals stress Hormuz reopening
Polymarket odds that Iran closes its airspace by May 21 fell 11.6 pp to 3.9%. The drop likely reflects the looming deadline without corroborating Iranian actions and government focus on reopening Hormuz, not aviation shutdowns.
Polymarket Analysis • May 20, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 49% on official alarms over Strait of Hormuz disruptions
Polymarket odds for an Iran airspace closure by May 31 surged 11.5pp to 49% in 24 hours, likely reacting to UK/EU warnings on Hormuz disruptions and related fuel risks.
Polymarket Analysis • May 20, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 34% on official warnings over Strait of Hormuz disruption
Polymarket odds for a major Iranian airspace closure by May 24 rose 9.5pp to 34% in 24h, likely on UK/EU warnings about Hormuz disruptions and new signs of regional strain.
Polymarket Analysis • May 19, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds jump after reported US strike cancellation; de‑escalation signal leads
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 rose 10.5pp to 36% over 24h, likely on AP’s report that President Trump called off a planned strike on Iran at Gulf allies’ request.
Polymarket Analysis • May 18, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 30% on Hormuz security statements and regional incident flow
Pricing for a May 24 Iranian airspace closure rose to 30%, likely reflecting official statements on a multinational Hormuz mission and fresh regional security reports.
Polymarket Analysis • May 17, 2026
US–Iran permanent peace odds plunge amid CENTCOM war update and Iranian warning on stalled talks
The market fell 6.5pp on the day (25pp on the week) as official signals emphasized ongoing hostilities and limited diplomatic traction, lowering near‑term odds of a permanent peace deal.
Polymarket Analysis • May 15, 2026
Israel–Syria security deal odds bounce intraday but remain lower w/w amid mixed regional signals and firmer oil
Pricing for an Israel–Syria security agreement ticked up 2.5pp to 12% over 24h, but is still 2pp lower on the week. The repricing likely reflects mixed regional security signals and a firmer oil backdrop.
Polymarket Analysis • May 14, 2026
US–Iran permanent peace odds fall; UK sanctions and Hormuz mission weigh on deal prospects
The market fell 3.5pp to 13% in 24h (−16pp w/w), likely reflecting UK sanctions on Iranian targets and London’s new role in a Strait of Hormuz security mission, which undercut near‑term prospects for a formal deal.
Polymarket Analysis • May 13, 2026
Hezbollah disarm odds jump on heavy trading despite hardline rhetoric in fresh reports
The market’s Yes probability rose ~6.5pp to 19% in 24 hours, likely on concentrated buying and liquidity, even as same-day reports showed Hezbollah hardening its stance on talks with Israel.
Polymarket Analysis • May 11, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds fall 11.5pp after US rejects Iranian reply; hardline US posture underscored
Polymarket probability for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 fell 11.5pp to 39%, likely on reports that President Trump rejected Iran’s latest ceasefire response and on firm US policy signals.
Polymarket Analysis • May 10, 2026
US–Iran in-person meeting odds tumble; traders react to hardline US stance and no meeting announced
Probability fell 6.5pp to 17% as US officials stressed enforcement over engagement and no in-person talks were announced, while the US is still awaiting Iran’s response, per AP.
Polymarket Analysis • May 9, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ by May 11 odds fall; US stance, renewed strikes weigh on near‑term window
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by May 11 slid 3.5pp to 6% in 24h, likely on firm US government messaging about defensive naval operations and sanctions plus reports of fresh regional attacks.
Polymarket Analysis • May 7, 2026
Hormuz ‘normal by end‑May’ odds jump on U.S. escort mission signals and softer oil
Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic hitting IMF Portwatch’s 60-transit 7DMA by May 31 rose 11.5 pp to 29%, likely on U.S. ‘Project Freedom’ escort updates and easing oil risk.
Polymarket Analysis • May 6, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds plunge to 9% as U.S. unveils ‘Project Freedom’ and diplomacy signals ease near-term risk
Polymarket odds that Iran closes its airspace by May 8 fell 16.5 pp to 9%, likely on the U.S. ‘Project Freedom’ announcement and reports of a pause for talks, reducing perceived near-term escalation.
Polymarket Analysis • May 5, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 53% on Hormuz escalation signals and EU energy-security focus
Polymarket odds for an Iran-ordered airspace closure by May 31 rose 14.5 pp to 53% today, likely on reports of renewed Hormuz tensions and EU attention to Middle East energy security.
Polymarket Analysis • May 4, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds fall sharply; slight uptick in Iran–US deal markets and steady oil backdrop
Pricing for an Iran airspace closure by May 8 dropped ~2.5pp to 12% over 24h, likely reflecting modest de-escalation cues in related Iran–US diplomacy markets and calm macro risk gauges.
Polymarket Analysis • May 2, 2026
Odds of a Trump announcement lifting the Hormuz blockade fall; US signals and oil spike point to continued pressure
The market fell 4.5pp to 15%, likely reflecting US government messaging that the blockade remains in place and reports of a potential extension, reducing odds of a near-term lift.
Polymarket Analysis • May 1, 2026
US–Iran “permanent peace deal” odds drop sharply on hawkish signals and US planning
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 fell 10.5pp to 30%, likely on US State Department comments flagging major hurdles, Iran’s hardline rhetoric, and reports of new US military options.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 30, 2026
Odds of Trump announcing Hormuz blockade lift by May 31 plunge after US signals blockade remains conditional
Price fell 14pp to 44% as traders reacted to April 27 US State Department remarks framing the Hormuz blockade as ongoing and conditional, with no clear signal of an imminent lift.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 29, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace deal’ odds tick up after sharp weekly selloff; US signals “better” Iranian paper but core disputes persist
Odds rose to 30% (+2.5pp, 24h) but are down 23pp over 7 days, likely reflecting US statements of a temporary ceasefire and unresolved disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 28, 2026
Hormuz blockade-lift odds crash into single digits as U.S. officials signal policy unchanged and deadline looms
Polymarket odds that Trump will announce lifting the U.S. Strait of Hormuz blockade by Apr 30 fell to 5% (−7.5pp on the day), likely due to the imminent deadline and U.S. statements indicating the blockade remains in place.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 28, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds plunge to 2.3% after US confirms Islamabad talks canceled and direct contacts rare
Probability fell 7.2pp to 2.3% as Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed planned Islamabad talks were canceled and said US–Iran contacts remain mostly indirect, with the April 30 deadline imminent.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 28, 2026
US–Iran peace-deal odds plunge on UN clash and stalled talks; extreme weekly repricing
The market fell 7.5pp to 43% in 24h (−26.5pp in 7d), likely on AP-reported U.S.–Iran clashes at the UN NPT review and talks “in flux,” with a UK UNSC statement underscoring ongoing security risks.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 27, 2026
Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire extension odds bounce 9pp into deadline, but remain 32pp lower on week amid de‑escalation doubts
The market for an Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire extension rose to 28% (+9pp/24h) as the April 26 deadline approached, but is still down 32pp on the week, likely reflecting weaker de‑escalation signals and broader risk repricing.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 26, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds collapse before Apr 27 deadline amid stalled talks and US blockade stance
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran diplomatic meeting by Apr 27 fell ~46pp to 1.9%, likely on stalled Pakistan talks and a US announcement enforcing a maritime blockade on Iran.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 26, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds collapse as Islamabad talks pause; US blockade stance weighs
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran diplomatic meeting by Apr 30 fell 53pp to 13%, following reports that Pakistan-hosted talks were put on hold and U.S. envoys did not attend; a U.S. maritime blockade posture added pressure.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 26, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds plunge as near-term talks stall and US announces Iran-focused maritime blockade
Probability for a US–Iran diplomatic meeting by Apr 29 fell 55pp to 10%, likely on halted Pakistan talks and a US government announcement of a global Iran-related maritime blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 26, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds plunge after Axios reports U.S. envoys’ trip canceled; U.S. gov touts Iran-focused blockade
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran diplomatic meeting by Apr 28, 2026 fell 43.5 pp to 8%, likely on an Axios report canceling a U.S. envoys’ trip and a U.S. government blockade announcement.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 25, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds jump on Pakistan-brokered talks push and US ceasefire extension reports
Pricing surged toward coin‑flip, likely on AP reports of Pakistan mediating US–Iran talks and Trump announcing a US ceasefire extension at Islamabad’s request.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 24, 2026
US–Iran diplomatic meeting odds plunge on reports of talks “in limbo” and no near‑term urgency
Probability dropped 29pp to 25% in 24h, likely on reports that U.S.–Iran talks remain in limbo, the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and the ceasefire was extended with “no time pressure.”
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 23, 2026
Hormuz blockade-lift odds crash as US enforcement continues and UK leads reopening planning
Polymarket odds fell 17.5pp to 6% as official signals pointed to the blockade remaining in force—U.S. enforcement (Apr 20) and a UK-led planning conference (Apr 21) suggest no imminent lift.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 22, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds plunge after reported failed Pakistan talks; maritime security posture hardens
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran in‑person diplomatic meeting by Apr 30 fell ~31pp to 57%, likely on reports the sides failed to meet in Pakistan and on stepped‑up maritime security actions.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 22, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds plunge on lack of joint confirmation and fresh Hormuz risks
The market fell 35pp to 24% over 24h, likely on the absence of a mutually confirmed US–Iran extension before the Apr 22 deadline and new Hormuz security incidents.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 22, 2026
US–Iran meeting-by-Apr-23 odds collapse as deadline nears; US reports blockade enforcement
The market fell 63pp to 15% in 24h, likely as the April 23 deadline approaches with no official meeting announced, amid a US statement on blockade enforcement and reports of a ceasefire extension.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 21, 2026
Strait of Hormuz normalization odds slump on US blockade enforcement and ceasefire uncertainty
Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April fell 12.5pp to 17%, likely on a US announcement of blockade enforcement and reports that a US–Iran ceasefire extension faces obstacles.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 21, 2026
US–Iran meeting (by Apr 22, 2026) ticks higher; timing shift from Apr 21 variant amid US blockade news
The market rose 3pp to 69% over 24h, likely reflecting a one‑day timing shift from the April 21 twin contract, despite a US government blockade action and media signals questioning near‑term talks.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 20, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire extension odds fall sharply after US blockade action and talks uncertainty
The market sold off 14.5pp to 34% today, likely on a US government announcement enforcing a naval blockade against an Iranian vessel and reporting that ship seizure has cast doubt on near‑term talks.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 20, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds surge to 49% on last-ditch engagement reports and official signals
The market jumped 10.5pp to 49%, likely on reports of last‑ditch engagement via Pakistan and U.S./European official statements during a narrowing ceasefire window.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 19, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace deal’ odds plunge on Hormuz crisis reports and official warnings
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by Apr 22, 2026 fell 9.5pp to 20%, likely on reports Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and US/EU/UK statements signaling heightened tensions.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 18, 2026
Hormuz “normal traffic by Apr 30” odds surge on Iran’s ‘open’ declaration and UK/EU pressure
Yes-probability jumped after Iran said the Strait is “completely open” during a ceasefire, and UK/EU statements pressed for restoring safe commercial passage.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 17, 2026
US–Iran “permanent peace” odds surge; mediation push and regional ceasefire headlines in focus
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by Apr 30, 2026 rose to 41% (+3.5pp/24h; +21.5pp/7d), likely on reports of active mediation to extend a ceasefire and broader regional de‑escalation signals.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 16, 2026
US–Iran permanent peace odds surge to 59% amid US pivot to economic pressure and regional de-escalation signals
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026 jumped into the high‑50s, likely reflecting US policy emphasis on economic pressure, congressional debate, and rising regional ceasefire pricing.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 16, 2026
Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire odds jump on new Israel–Lebanon talks and fresh government statements
Polymarket pricing for an Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire by Apr 30, 2026 surged ~25pp, likely on reports of new Israel–Lebanon talks (AP) and coordinated government statements on Lebanon.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 15, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace deal’ odds jump on renewed-talks reports; oil and risk gauges ease
Polymarket odds rose to 39% after reports of possible US–Iran talks resuming in Islamabad, with risk assets firmer and oil softer on de‑escalation hopes.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 14, 2026
Israel–Iran strike odds plunge 29pp as official signals stress maritime security and ceasefire talks
Pricing for an Israeli strike on Iranian soil by Apr 21 fell 29pp to 22%, likely on Apr 13 government signals prioritizing Hormuz mine‑clearing and comments on Iran–US ceasefire sincerity.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 13, 2026
Odds plunge that Trump will announce end of Iran operations by Apr 30, after talks collapse and blockade move
Polymarket probability fell 25.5 pp to 26% as U.S.–Iran talks ended without a deal and Axios reported Trump announced a naval blockade, cutting near-term odds of an end-of-operations statement.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 12, 2026
Strait of Hormuz ‘normal traffic by Apr 30’ odds jump; de-escalation signals and EU energy coordination cited
The market’s Yes probability rose 11.5pp to 33% in 24h, likely on de-escalation signals, EU oil/gas coordination, and softer energy-risk pricing, despite mine-clearance uncertainty.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 11, 2026
US–Iran meeting by Apr 10 odds plunge into deadline; later-dated markets surge on ceasefire signals
Price fell ~19pp to 6% into the Apr 10 cutoff, likely on lack of public confirmation of an in‑person US–Iran meeting, while official April 8 ceasefire statements boosted later-dated “meeting” markets.