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Middle East Polymarket Briefs
Middle East risk markets including escalation, diplomacy, and security developments.
48 Topic Results
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Polymarket Analysis • Aug 18, 2026
Hormuz “returns to normal by Dec 31” odds drop sharply on stalled Iran deal signals; related markets weaken
The market fell 9.5pp to 34% amid reports that a proposed Iran deal deadline is expiring without agreement and related Hormuz/US-announcement markets softened, reducing confidence in year-end normalization.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 17, 2026
Odds of US announcing end to Iran blockade fall sharply as Aug 31 deadline nears and no qualifying signal appears
The market dropped 4.5pp to 16% on the day and 28.5pp over a week, likely reflecting time-decay into the Aug 31 window with no official US announcement ending the blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 16, 2026
Iran–Oman Hormuz agreement odds rebound to 37% after a 47pp weekly slide amid security incidents and official censure
Pricing recovered 3pp in 24h to 37% but is down 47pp over 7d, likely reflecting fresh Hormuz incident reports and mid‑August government statements critical of Iran, with no qualifying deal announcements evident.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 15, 2026
Odds of US announcing end of Iranian blockade by Sept 30 drop sharply on stalled talks and allied pressure signals
The market fell 14.5pp to 41% over 24h, likely on reports of stalled US–Iran diplomacy and coordinated allied statements criticizing Iran, reducing expectations of a near-term US announcement to lift the blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 14, 2026
Venezuela–Israel recognition odds plunge 45pp; repricing follows fresh Mideast security signals and UK/EP statements
Polymarket odds that Venezuela will recognize Israel by Dec 31, 2026 fell 45pp to 12% in 24h, likely on heightened regional security signals and official statements that reduced expectations for near-term diplomatic shifts.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 13, 2026
Polymarket: Odds of US announcing end of Iranian blockade plunge as deadline nears; no US signal, IEA highlights Hormuz constraints
Probability fell 7.5pp to 3% as the Aug 14 deadline approaches without a qualifying US announcement, while an IEA note underscored that a Hormuz reopening remains elusive.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 12, 2026
Odds of a US announcement ending Iran blockade tick up; AP sanctions pivot cited while oil strength caps rebound
The market rose 4pp to 14% over 24h, likely on AP reporting of an Aug 11 US pivot back to Iran sanctions, but a steep 7d slide persists amid no official US signal and elevated oil prices.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 11, 2026
Odds of U.S. declaring end to Iran blockade fall sharply; Iran’s Aug 10 stance and lack of U.S. policy signals weigh
The market fell 11.5 pp to 32% over 24h, likely reflecting Iran’s Aug 10 hardline position on Hormuz and the absence of any U.S. announcement ending the blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 10, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade by Sept 30 drop 17pp on lack of official signal
The market fell to 64% (−17pp, 24h), likely reflecting the absence of any qualifying U.S. announcement ending or suspending the Iran naval blockade, with declines echoed in nearer-dated markets.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 9, 2026
US end‑of‑Iran‑blockade odds plunge 30pp on no US announcement as Aug 15 deadline nears
Polymarket contract fell 30pp to 34% in 24h, apparently on the absence of any qualifying US government statement ending the Iran naval blockade as the Aug 15 window approaches.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 8, 2026
Odds jump for US announcing end of Iran blockade by Aug 31; move tracks AP report and timeline shift
Probability rose 9.5 pp to 78%, likely on fresh reporting about potential Iran deal mechanics and a trader shift toward a mid/late‑August announcement window.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 7, 2026
Odds of US announcing end of Iranian blockade by Aug 7 plunge on no official signal and hostile Iranian proposal
The Aug 7 contract fell 21.1pp to 15.5% as the deadline approached without a qualifying US announcement; Iranian hardline moves and lack of de‑escalatory signals likely weighed.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 6, 2026
Odds of Iran imposing Hormuz transit fees drop sharply on talk of reopening deal; extreme downward repricing
The market fell 11pp to 10% in 24h, likely on AP-reported comments about a possible deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allied posture signals, prompting an extreme de-escalation repricing.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 5, 2026
‘End of Iranian blockade by Aug 15?’ jumps to 63% on AP report of Iran–Oman strait talks
The market rose 21.5pp to 63% in 24h, likely on an AP report that Iran and Oman made progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting odds of a U.S. announcement ending the blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 4, 2026
Odds of US ending Iranian blockade by Aug 31 drop 6pp as official signals stress talks, not suspension
Polymarket odds fell to 57% (-6pp, 24h) after U.S. statements flagged talks with Iran but offered no commitment to lift or suspend the blockade, prompting a near-term repricing.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 3, 2026
Odds surge for US to announce end of Iranian blockade, driven by Aug 2 de-escalation signals
Price jumped 29.5pp to 47% in 24h, likely on Aug 2 remarks about pausing Iran strikes and State Department comments about a potential “deal on the straits.”
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 2, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds rise to 27% amid Iran strike rhetoric and official security statements
Odds that Israel will close its airspace by Aug 15 rose to 27% (+2.5pp/24h), likely on heightened regional security signals including Iran-related rhetoric and government statements on Israel-Palestine.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 1, 2026
Hamas disarmament odds fall 28pp as traders parse deal details after French, AP/NPR announcements
Polymarket’s probability for a Hamas disarmament announcement by Dec 31, 2026 dropped 28pp to 64% in 24h, likely on implementation doubts despite a French MFA notice and AP/NPR reports of a deal.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 31, 2026
US–Iran ‘final deal’ odds fall sharply; conflict headlines and no official progress
Odds for a US–Iran final nuclear deal by Aug 31, 2026 fell 2.2pp to 3.3% over 24h, likely on reports of widening Iran-linked conflict and the absence of new official steps toward a signed or formally adopted agreement.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 29, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade plunge; fresh hostilities and no qualifying US signal cited
Polymarket probability fell 7.5pp to 7%, likely on AP-reported Iranian missile attack against US forces and the absence of any official US move to end the blockade as the July 31 deadline nears.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 28, 2026
US–Iran halt odds surge to 95% on reported attack pause and mediator progress
Polymarket odds for a US announcement halting offensive operations against Iran jumped ~54 points to 95.6%, likely on reports of a US–Iran pause in attacks and mediator-led de‑escalation talks.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 27, 2026
Bab el‑Mandeb ‘closure’ odds fall sharply; EU supply assurance and US–Iran pause in strikes cited
The market dropped 3pp to 15% on the day and 9.5pp on the week, likely reflecting EU assurances of no immediate oil supply risk and a reported US–Iran pause in strikes.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 26, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds drop sharply; de-escalation signals and benign supply readout weigh on risk
Odds that Israel will order a major airspace closure fell 9.5 pp to 36% over 24h, likely reflecting reports of no new U.S. strikes on Iran and an EU assessment of no immediate oil-supply concerns.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 25, 2026
Trump–Netanyahu meeting odds surge to 90% on White House scheduling signal and intensifying Iran conflict
The market jumped 62pp to 90%, likely on the White House confirming a Trump–Zelenskyy meeting next week and U.S. government reports of continued strikes on Iran that concentrate near‑term diplomacy.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 24, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds surge to 35% on extreme weekly repricing amid Iran-war headlines and EU policy signals
Polymarket odds that Israel closes its airspace by July 31 jumped 6.5pp to 35%, likely reflecting concentrated Iran-war news and a flurry of European government statements on Israel this week.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 23, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds jump to 27% on fresh Iran–Israel escalation reports
The market rose 6.5pp to 27% in 24h, likely reacting to AP reports on July 22 of Iranian strikes near Israel and new U.S. strikes, which raised perceived closure risk.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 21, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds drop to 20% as July 31 window narrows; related tail-risk markets also fall
Pricing fell 9.5pp to 20% over 24h, likely on time-window compression and a lack of fresh official closure signals, with parallel near-term markets moving lower.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 20, 2026
Gadi Eizenkot PM odds surge to 52% as traders rotate from Netanyahu; extreme 7d repricing
Eizenkot’s contract climbed about 12pp over 7 days to ~52%, likely driven by rotation away from Netanyahu’s line and strong on-exchange flows rather than a clear official trigger.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 19, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei end-2026 odds fall; U.S.–Iran escalation and UK FCDO censure likely drivers
Probability that Mojtaba Khamenei is Iran’s de facto head of state at end-2026 fell 4.15 pp to 73.2%, likely on July 18 reports of U.S.–Iran strikes and the UK’s July 14 IRGC-QF censure.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 18, 2026
U.S.–Iran invasion market jumps to 29% on escalatory strikes; CENTCOM confirms new Iran strikes
Probability rose 6pp to 29% in 24h, likely on reports of U.S. strikes inside Iran and Iranian retaliation, reinforced by a U.S. Central Command statement confirming new strike waves.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 17, 2026
Bab el-Mandeb closure-by-Aug odds jump on Yemen escalation headlines; extreme 24h spike
Polymarket odds for a PortWatch-defined Bab el‑Mandeb “effective closure” rose 7.5 pp to 19% in 24h, likely on AP reports of Houthi escalation and intensifying Hormuz fighting, alongside official emphasis on chokepoint risks.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 16, 2026
Israel July airspace-closure odds fall; de-escalation steps on Lebanon border cited as likely driver
The Polymarket contract on Israel closing its airspace by July 31 fell 3.5pp to 10% over 24h, likely on reports of Israel–Lebanon border implementation steps that reduce near‑term escalation risk.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 15, 2026
US Hormuz-fee odds plunge; traders focus on blockade signals and Hill pushback
Polymarket odds that the US will collect Hormuz transit/protection fees by Dec 31, 2026 fell 26pp to 9%, likely reflecting emphasis on blockade/strikes over fee programs and Senate Democrats’ block of a defense bill.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 14, 2026
US–Iran ‘Final Deal’ odds fall sharply after US strikes and E3 condemnation
Probability dropped 5.5 pp on the day (to 30%) and 15.5 pp on the week, likely as traders reacted to new US CENTCOM strikes and firm E3/UK messaging on Iranian attacks.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 13, 2026
Iran blockade odds jump to 31% over the week; cross-markets and oil firm as official rhetoric spotlights Gulf risk
The contract climbed ~20 pp over the week to 31%, likely reflecting heightened Gulf risk signaled in official statements and a 9% weekly rise in Brent crude.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 12, 2026
US–Iran blockade odds jump to 56% after Trump threats; allied governments spotlight Hormuz
Polymarket odds that the US will announce a blockade on Iran by Dec 31 rose 17pp to 56%, likely on Trump’s public threats and fresh official focus on Strait of Hormuz navigation.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 11, 2026
US–Iran blockade odds drop 7.5pp; UK and Australia urge de‑escalation amid fresh strikes
Polymarket’s “US blockade of Iran by Dec 31” fell to 41% (-7.5pp in 24h), likely on July 10 allied government calls for de-escalation that tempered a week of escalation-driven gains.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 10, 2026
Odds Mojtaba Khamenei is seen by July 31 rebound to 8% amid UK and EU actions spotlighting Iran
Polymarket odds rose 2.5pp to 8% over 24h after a week-long slide, likely alongside UK and EU moves keeping Iran in focus, while related markets show only partial confirmation.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 9, 2026
US–Iran ‘final deal’ odds drop sharply as escalation headlines and UK rebuke weigh on talks window
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran final nuclear deal by Aug 31 fell 7.5pp to 13%, likely on fresh reports of attacks and broader escalation risk, with related Iran-risk markets turning more hawkish.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 8, 2026
Hormuz traffic-normalization odds plunge on tanker attack reports and UK–Iran diplomatic flare-up
Odds fell 4.5pp in 24h and 25.5pp in 7d, likely on reports of a tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz and fresh UK diplomatic action toward Iran.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 7, 2026
Strait of Hormuz ‘normal by July 31’ odds plunge on deadline risk and lack of qualifying IMF Portwatch prints
The market fell 6.5pp in 24h and 29.5pp over 7d to 9%, likely as traders price in the July 31 deadline with no IMF Portwatch 7‑day average ≥60 yet published; related maturities also dropped.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 6, 2026
Strait of Hormuz normalization odds fall 6.5pp; regional shipping risk in focus after Red Sea attack report
Odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dec 31, 2026 fell to 73% (-6.5pp in 24h), likely on a risk reassessment after a reported cargo ship attack in the Red Sea and despite steady official energy-supply signals in Europe.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 4, 2026
Gadi Eizenkot contract jumps; rotation from Netanyahu as EU scrutiny of Israel surfaces
Odds for Gadi Eizenkot as Israel’s next PM rose by a few points on an extreme 24h move, likely as traders rotated from Netanyahu and digested fresh EU parliamentary scrutiny and regional headlines.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 3, 2026
Strait of Hormuz ‘normal by July 15’ odds tumble after Iranian tanker routing warning
Polymarket odds fell 6.5pp to 7%, likely on AP-reported Iranian directives to tankers and no clear de‑escalation signals, cutting confidence the ≥60-ship 7‑day average will be hit before July 15.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 2, 2026
Hormuz “40+ ships in a day” market jumps to 99.9% on ceasefire-enabled traffic signals
Pricing surged 12.4 pp to 99.9%, likely reflecting signals that Strait of Hormuz transits resumed under a fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire and traders’ confidence in late‑June counts.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 1, 2026
Lebanon–Israel recognition odds plunge as June 30 cutoff nears; no official act evident
Polymarket pricing fell ~15 pp in 24h to 8.8% as the June 30, 2026 cutoff approaches without an official Lebanese recognition, while official statements focused elsewhere.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 29, 2026
Odds Lebanon recognizes Israel plunge 49pp as June 30 deadline looms; repricing follows escalation signals
The contract fell 49 percentage points to 20.8% in 24h, likely as traders reacted to fresh Israel–Hezbollah and US–Iran escalation and the imminent June 30 cutoff that requires formal, not declaratory, recognition.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 28, 2026
Iran June 27 shipping-attack odds spike to 99.6% on reports a ship was hit in the Strait of Hormuz
The market surged ~91pp to 99.6%, likely on June 27 reporting that a ship was struck in the Strait of Hormuz and coverage attributing drone activity to Iran.