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Middle East Polymarket Briefs
Middle East risk markets including escalation, diplomacy, and security developments.
48 Topic Results
Topic matching combines canonical topic keywords with optional Sanity topic synonyms.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 4, 2026
Gadi Eizenkot contract jumps; rotation from Netanyahu as EU scrutiny of Israel surfaces
Odds for Gadi Eizenkot as Israel’s next PM rose by a few points on an extreme 24h move, likely as traders rotated from Netanyahu and digested fresh EU parliamentary scrutiny and regional headlines.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 3, 2026
Strait of Hormuz ‘normal by July 15’ odds tumble after Iranian tanker routing warning
Polymarket odds fell 6.5pp to 7%, likely on AP-reported Iranian directives to tankers and no clear de‑escalation signals, cutting confidence the ≥60-ship 7‑day average will be hit before July 15.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 2, 2026
Hormuz “40+ ships in a day” market jumps to 99.9% on ceasefire-enabled traffic signals
Pricing surged 12.4 pp to 99.9%, likely reflecting signals that Strait of Hormuz transits resumed under a fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire and traders’ confidence in late‑June counts.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 1, 2026
Lebanon–Israel recognition odds plunge as June 30 cutoff nears; no official act evident
Polymarket pricing fell ~15 pp in 24h to 8.8% as the June 30, 2026 cutoff approaches without an official Lebanese recognition, while official statements focused elsewhere.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 29, 2026
Odds Lebanon recognizes Israel plunge 49pp as June 30 deadline looms; repricing follows escalation signals
The contract fell 49 percentage points to 20.8% in 24h, likely as traders reacted to fresh Israel–Hezbollah and US–Iran escalation and the imminent June 30 cutoff that requires formal, not declaratory, recognition.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 28, 2026
Iran June 27 shipping-attack odds spike to 99.6% on reports a ship was hit in the Strait of Hormuz
The market surged ~91pp to 99.6%, likely on June 27 reporting that a ship was struck in the Strait of Hormuz and coverage attributing drone activity to Iran.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 26, 2026
Hormuz ‘60 ships in a day’ odds spike; AP tanker transit and rising Mideast supply tone lift pricing
Polymarket odds that any June 2026 day sees ≥60 ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz jumped 27.5pp to 56%, likely on reports of continued tanker passages and a softer oil-supply backdrop.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 25, 2026
US–Iran “Final Nuclear Deal” odds fall; funding request tied to Iran conflict outweighs IAEA inspection signal
The market slipped 4.5pp to 24% over 24h, likely on the White House’s June 24 request for $87.6B including costs tied to a conflict with Iran, which outweighed IAEA comments on interim inspections.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 24, 2026
Hormuz ≥20-ship odds spike to ~99% after AP notes rising transits; traders price low threshold by June 30
Price jumped 7.7pp to 99.2%, likely on AP reporting that more vessels are venturing through the Strait of Hormuz despite disruptions, lifting confidence that at least one day will meet the ≥20-ship threshold before June 30.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 22, 2026
Hormuz transit-fee odds pop on Switzerland talks; EU notes US–Iran accord to reopen strait
The “Yes” price rose 1.25pp to 3% over 24h, likely on headlines that U.S. and Iranian officials are meeting in Switzerland with Hormuz on the agenda, even as weekly pricing remains lower.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 21, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds spike to ~95% on Swiss-confirmed talks and reports of Sunday in‑person engagement
Probability jumped 59pp to 94.7% after Swiss authorities said US–Iran talks are continuing at Bürgenstock and media reported US and Iranian envoys arriving in Switzerland for Sunday discussions.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 20, 2026
Iran enrichment-halt odds collapse as talks slip and EU readouts omit nuclear pledge
The market fell 58pp to 4% after official readouts of a U.S.–Iran agreement and a delayed Vance trip offered no sign of an Iranian commitment to end enrichment.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 19, 2026
US–Iran meeting by Jun 19 plunges ~42pp on deadline timing doubts despite reported Friday talks
Traders marked down odds of a qualifying US–Iran in‑person diplomatic meeting before the Jun 19, 2026 deadline, likely on lack of official confirmation despite reports of Friday talks and an EU statement on a broader agreement.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 18, 2026
Hormuz ‘normal by June’ odds jump on EU-backed US–Iran agreement and leaked reopening terms
Polymarket odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by end-June rose 4.5pp to 22%, likely on an EU-backed US–Iran understanding and reports that reopening terms include restored passage.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 17, 2026
Iran enrichment-end odds jump on official US–Iran deal signals and impending Geneva talks
The market repriced higher after official statements acknowledged a US–Iran agreement and signaled imminent nuclear talks, likely boosting odds of a formal pledge by June 30.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 16, 2026
Israel–Iran peace odds drop 6.8pp as official signals center on US–Iran deal and gaps over Lebanon persist
The market fell to 15% (-6.8pp, 24h) for an Israel–Iran permanent peace by Jun 30, 2026, likely on signals that de‑escalation is US–Iran–focused while Israeli and Iranian positions on Lebanon remain far apart.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 16, 2026
US–Iran agreement market spikes to 99.7% on June 15 deal announcements and EU confirmation
Pricing jumped 87.7 pp to 99.7%, likely on June 15 announcements of a US–Iran agreement and an EU Commission statement welcoming the deal and Hormuz reopening.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 15, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension market spikes to 99.9% after NPR reports announced deal; late-day diplomacy cited
The market jumped ~75 pp to 99.9% by the June 14 deadline, likely on NPR’s report of a U.S.–Iran deal and AP’s same-day coverage of Qatari mediators finalizing terms in Tehran.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 14, 2026
US–Iran nuclear deal odds surge to 62% on reports of near-term accord; Quad IAEA action frames pressure
Odds jumped 17.5pp to 62% in 24h, likely on Reuters/AP reports of a possible U.S.–Iran agreement within days and coordinated Quad moves at the IAEA on Iran’s safeguards.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 13, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds surge to 51% on reports of imminent memorandum and cease-fire framework
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by July 31 rose 9.5 pp to 51%, likely on reports of an imminent Geneva memorandum and cease-fire framework, despite recent government statements highlighting continued concerns over Iran.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 12, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds jump to 70% after Trump signals deal "soon" and halts further strikes
Polymarket odds for a US-announced Iran ceasefire extension by June 30 spiked to 70% (+35.5pp), likely on Trump’s June 11 comment a deal is coming “soon” and a pause in further strikes.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 11, 2026
‘Project Freedom’ odds surge to 95% on US/Iran operations signals and allied statements
Polymarket odds that Trump will restart Project Freedom by June 30 spiked ~83pp to 95%, likely on US government signaling of planned Iran operations and allied Iran-related statements on June 10.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 10, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds drop sharply into deadline, amid no official closure signals in cited gov’t statements
Polymarket odds that Israel would close its airspace by June 9 fell to ~2%, an extreme 24h drop, likely as the deadline approached without any cited government announcements indicating a nationwide closure.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 9, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds fall; traders discount broad shutdown despite regional flare-ups
Pricing for an Israel-wide airspace shutdown by June 15 fell sharply over the past day, likely reflecting reports of routine resuming after missile sirens and no official closure notice.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 8, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds surge to 99.6% amid reports of missile launch and drone shootdowns
Polymarket odds that Iran closes its airspace by June 8 jumped 96.9 pp to 99.6%, apparently driven by June 7 reports of an Iranian missile at Israel and U.S. downing Iranian drones.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 7, 2026
US–Iran permanent peace odds plunge after reported US shootdown of Iranian drones
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026 fell 11.5pp to 28% over 24h, likely on fresh hostilities reported by NPR and synchronized declines in related deadlines.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 6, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds slump to 8% as June 15 deadline nears; no official deal signals
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran 'permanent peace' by June 15 fell 5.5pp to 8%, likely on deadline-driven repricing and no government confirmations of a deal.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 5, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds plunge; repricing on IAEA monitoring warning and no US signal
Polymarket odds for a US-announced Iran ceasefire extension by June 7 fell 5.5pp to 6%, likely on adverse Iran nuclear oversight news and the absence of any qualifying US announcement as the deadline nears.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 4, 2026
Polymarket odds of Israel extending Lebanon ceasefire plunge; move follows UK UN warning and reports of fresh Israeli strikes
Contract fell 37.5pp to 46% over 24h, likely on reports of new Israeli strikes near Beirut and a UK statement at the UN warning Blue Line escalation risks undermining ceasefire talks.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 3, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds rebound ~6pp; repricing tracks weaker ceasefire bets despite soft oil
The market rose to 26.5% (+6.4pp, 24h), likely reflecting repricing alongside falling ceasefire/diplomacy odds, while broader energy and volatility gauges did not confirm.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 2, 2026
Hormuz traffic-normalization odds fall sharply on U.S. strikes near strait and EU supply-risk signals
The market fell 7.5pp to 22% in 24h, likely on U.S. strikes near Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz and EU warnings on Middle East energy supply risks, alongside a narrowing June 30 deadline.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 1, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds drop sharply on lack of US announcement and Lebanon fighting
Polymarket odds for a US-announced Iran ceasefire extension by June 7 fell 8.5pp to 25%, likely on the absence of any qualifying US statement and AP reporting that fighting in Lebanon complicates an Iran-related deal.
Polymarket Analysis • May 31, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds plunge as no qualifying US announcement emerges ahead of May 31
Polymarket odds for a US-announced Iran ceasefire extension fell 18.5pp in 24h to 8%, likely on the absence of any qualifying US government statement and fresh reporting of regional enforcement actions.
Polymarket Analysis • May 30, 2026
Hormuz blockade-lift odds jump to 27% on extreme 24h spike as deadline nears
Probability rose 12pp to 27% in the past day, an extreme move likely tied to the imminent May 31 deadline amid active U.S.–Iran diplomacy.
Polymarket Analysis • May 29, 2026
US–Iran “permanent peace” odds drop sharply on reports of new strikes and cautious US stance
Polymarket probability for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 7 fell 7.5pp to 21% in 24h, likely reflecting reports of reciprocal strikes and US statements of not rushing an agreement, with EU officials flagging continued Middle East t…
Polymarket Analysis • May 28, 2026
Polymarket: Odds of U.S.-announced Iran ceasefire extension by May 31 fall on lack of official signal
Price fell 11pp to 26% over 24h, likely reflecting no qualifying U.S. announcement as the May 31 deadline approaches, despite reports of Cabinet-level talks.
Polymarket Analysis • May 27, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds plunge on May 26 amid US strikes reports and no qualifying US statement
Polymarket odds fell 16pp to ~1.5% as traders reacted to reports of US strikes in Iran and the absence of a qualifying US ceasefire-extension announcement before the May 26 deadline.
Polymarket Analysis • May 26, 2026
Iran ceasefire-through-May-31 odds plunge as late-May breakdown risk gets priced across adjacent contracts
The market fell ~79 pp in 24h to 2.8%, likely linked to synchronized selloffs in nearer-dated ceasefire contracts and news framing negotiations as uncertain.
Polymarket Analysis • May 25, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds plunge as May 26 deadline nears and reports focus on ceasefire steps
Polymarket’s “US × Iran permanent peace by May 26, 2026” fell 54pp to 9%, likely on the imminent deadline, reporting that centers on ceasefire de-escalation (not a permanent deal), and no official US/Iran confirmation.
Polymarket Analysis • May 24, 2026
US–Iran peace-deal odds surge to 69% on reports of a ‘largely negotiated’ framework and ceasefire stability
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by May 31 spiked ~58pp to 69%, likely on Trump’s claim a deal is “largely negotiated” and AP reporting of progress in talks, with oil prices falling.
Polymarket Analysis • May 23, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds surge to 98% amid official Hormuz warnings and unresolved talks
Pricing for “Iran closes its airspace by May 24?” spiked ~83 pp to ~98%, likely on official warnings about Strait of Hormuz disruptions and continued uncertainty in Iran talks.
Polymarket Analysis • May 22, 2026
Iran ceasefire market jumps to 99.7% as window nears close with no qualifying U.S. strike reports
Yes odds rose 2.3pp on the day (to 99.7%) as the May 21 (ET) window closed without credible reporting of a U.S. kinetic strike on Iranian soil; congressional debate focused on oversight, not action.
Polymarket Analysis • May 21, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds plunge into low single digits as May 21 deadline nears; UK/EU signals stress Hormuz reopening
Polymarket odds that Iran closes its airspace by May 21 fell 11.6 pp to 3.9%. The drop likely reflects the looming deadline without corroborating Iranian actions and government focus on reopening Hormuz, not aviation shutdowns.
Polymarket Analysis • May 20, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 49% on official alarms over Strait of Hormuz disruptions
Polymarket odds for an Iran airspace closure by May 31 surged 11.5pp to 49% in 24 hours, likely reacting to UK/EU warnings on Hormuz disruptions and related fuel risks.
Polymarket Analysis • May 20, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 34% on official warnings over Strait of Hormuz disruption
Polymarket odds for a major Iranian airspace closure by May 24 rose 9.5pp to 34% in 24h, likely on UK/EU warnings about Hormuz disruptions and new signs of regional strain.
Polymarket Analysis • May 19, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds jump after reported US strike cancellation; de‑escalation signal leads
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 rose 10.5pp to 36% over 24h, likely on AP’s report that President Trump called off a planned strike on Iran at Gulf allies’ request.
Polymarket Analysis • May 18, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 30% on Hormuz security statements and regional incident flow
Pricing for a May 24 Iranian airspace closure rose to 30%, likely reflecting official statements on a multinational Hormuz mission and fresh regional security reports.
Polymarket Analysis • May 17, 2026
US–Iran permanent peace odds plunge amid CENTCOM war update and Iranian warning on stalled talks
The market fell 6.5pp on the day (25pp on the week) as official signals emphasized ongoing hostilities and limited diplomatic traction, lowering near‑term odds of a permanent peace deal.