Polymarket Topic Hub
Europe Polymarket Briefs
European policy and election markets across the EU, UK, and neighboring risk fronts.
19 Topic Results
Topic matching combines canonical topic keywords with optional Sanity topic synonyms.
Polymarket Analysis • May 21, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds plunge into low single digits as May 21 deadline nears; UK/EU signals stress Hormuz reopening
Polymarket odds that Iran closes its airspace by May 21 fell 11.6 pp to 3.9%. The drop likely reflects the looming deadline without corroborating Iranian actions and government focus on reopening Hormuz, not aviation shutdowns.
Polymarket Analysis • May 20, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 49% on official alarms over Strait of Hormuz disruptions
Polymarket odds for an Iran airspace closure by May 31 surged 11.5pp to 49% in 24 hours, likely reacting to UK/EU warnings on Hormuz disruptions and related fuel risks.
Polymarket Analysis • May 20, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 34% on official warnings over Strait of Hormuz disruption
Polymarket odds for a major Iranian airspace closure by May 24 rose 9.5pp to 34% in 24h, likely on UK/EU warnings about Hormuz disruptions and new signs of regional strain.
Polymarket Analysis • May 14, 2026
US–Iran permanent peace odds fall; UK sanctions and Hormuz mission weigh on deal prospects
The market fell 3.5pp to 13% in 24h (−16pp w/w), likely reflecting UK sanctions on Iranian targets and London’s new role in a Strait of Hormuz security mission, which undercut near‑term prospects for a formal deal.
Polymarket Analysis • May 5, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 53% on Hormuz escalation signals and EU energy-security focus
Polymarket odds for an Iran-ordered airspace closure by May 31 rose 14.5 pp to 53% today, likely on reports of renewed Hormuz tensions and EU attention to Middle East energy security.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 28, 2026
US–Iran peace-deal odds plunge on UN clash and stalled talks; extreme weekly repricing
The market fell 7.5pp to 43% in 24h (−26.5pp in 7d), likely on AP-reported U.S.–Iran clashes at the UN NPT review and talks “in flux,” with a UK UNSC statement underscoring ongoing security risks.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 23, 2026
Hormuz blockade-lift odds crash as US enforcement continues and UK leads reopening planning
Polymarket odds fell 17.5pp to 6% as official signals pointed to the blockade remaining in force—U.S. enforcement (Apr 20) and a UK-led planning conference (Apr 21) suggest no imminent lift.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 20, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds surge to 49% on last-ditch engagement reports and official signals
The market jumped 10.5pp to 49%, likely on reports of last‑ditch engagement via Pakistan and U.S./European official statements during a narrowing ceasefire window.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 19, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace deal’ odds plunge on Hormuz crisis reports and official warnings
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by Apr 22, 2026 fell 9.5pp to 20%, likely on reports Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and US/EU/UK statements signaling heightened tensions.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 18, 2026
Hormuz “normal traffic by Apr 30” odds surge on Iran’s ‘open’ declaration and UK/EU pressure
Yes-probability jumped after Iran said the Strait is “completely open” during a ceasefire, and UK/EU statements pressed for restoring safe commercial passage.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 12, 2026
Strait of Hormuz ‘normal traffic by Apr 30’ odds jump; de-escalation signals and EU energy coordination cited
The market’s Yes probability rose 11.5pp to 33% in 24h, likely on de-escalation signals, EU oil/gas coordination, and softer energy-risk pricing, despite mine-clearance uncertainty.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 8, 2026
U.S.–Iran invasion odds plunge after 2-week ceasefire; UK confirms truce, oil retreats
Polymarket odds that the U.S. will invade Iran before 2027 fell 32.5 points to 28%, likely on the two-week ceasefire taking effect and confirmed by the UK government, alongside softer oil and risk-on macro moves.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 1, 2026
“US forces enter Iran by Apr 30?” drops 12pp; defensive US moves and EU oil-security focus cool near-term incursion odds
The market fell to 58% (−12pp, 24h), likely as traders digested AP reporting that fresh U.S. deployments are framed as deterrent and an EU Commission call prioritized energy security over escalation.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 31, 2026
Odds of crude hitting $100 by March surge to near-certainty as WTI trades above $106; Iran risk and EU signals in focus
Polymarket’s “CL ≥$100 by end of March” probability jumped 14pp to 99.9%, likely on front‑month WTI trading above $106 and escalating Iran-related tensions flagged by EU lawmakers.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 30, 2026
Polymarket: ‘US forces enter Iran by April 30?’ surges to 71% on official conflict updates and G7 focus
The contract jumped to 71%, likely on coordinated G7 statements, a U.S. operational update, and UK reporting of active air-defense actions, all pointing to elevated near-term conflict risk.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 29, 2026
Polymarket ‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ surges; official G7 and US/UK defense signals lift perceived risk
Pricing for ‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ moved sharply higher, likely on coordinated G7 messaging on Iran and fresh US/UK operational updates indicating sustained regional hostilities.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 28, 2026
Odds of oil settling ≥$100 by March 31 spike on WTI >$100 and EU warnings on Hormuz risk
Polymarket odds jumped 44pp to 76% after WTI printed above $100 and EU parliamentary queries flagged Strait of Hormuz disruption and war-risk insurance concerns.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire (by Apr 15) drops 8.5pp as positions harden; UK UNHRC statements underscore tensions
The Apr 15 US–Iran ceasefire market fell to 29% (−8.5pp, 24h), likely on reports of firmer stances and Hormuz friction, alongside UK statements at the UNHRC condemning Iranian aggression.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
Odds of WTI $100-by-March rebound to 42% on Iran–Hormuz risk and official UK/EU signals
Yes-probability jumped ~18pp in 24h to 42.3%, likely on renewed supply-risk pricing tied to Iran–Strait of Hormuz tensions and UK/EU statements underscoring Gulf escalation.