Polymarket Briefs
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Markets marked resolved or closed, paired with the published brief that covered the setup.
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Polymarket Analysis • Jun 13, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds surge to 51% on reports of imminent memorandum and cease-fire framework
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by July 31 rose 9.5 pp to 51%, likely on reports of an imminent Geneva memorandum and cease-fire framework, despite recent government statements highlighting continued concerns over Iran.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 7, 2026
US–Iran permanent peace odds plunge after reported US shootdown of Iranian drones
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026 fell 11.5pp to 28% over 24h, likely on fresh hostilities reported by NPR and synchronized declines in related deadlines.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 2, 2026
Hormuz “40+ ships in a day” market jumps to 99.9% on ceasefire-enabled traffic signals
Pricing surged 12.4 pp to 99.9%, likely reflecting signals that Strait of Hormuz transits resumed under a fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire and traders’ confidence in late‑June counts.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 24, 2026
Hormuz ≥20-ship odds spike to ~99% after AP notes rising transits; traders price low threshold by June 30
Price jumped 7.7pp to 99.2%, likely on AP reporting that more vessels are venturing through the Strait of Hormuz despite disruptions, lifting confidence that at least one day will meet the ≥20-ship threshold before June 30.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 30, 2026
Vučić ‘out by June 30, 2026’ market spikes to near-certainty on step-down statement and imminent cutoff
Polymarket odds surged to near 100% after reports on June 29 that Aleksandar Vučić said he will step down, with the contract’s immediate-resolution-on-announcement rule and the June 30 cutoff concentrating conviction.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 22, 2026
Hormuz transit-fee odds pop on Switzerland talks; EU notes US–Iran accord to reopen strait
The “Yes” price rose 1.25pp to 3% over 24h, likely on headlines that U.S. and Iranian officials are meeting in Switzerland with Hormuz on the agenda, even as weekly pricing remains lower.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 20, 2026
Iran enrichment-halt odds collapse as talks slip and EU readouts omit nuclear pledge
The market fell 58pp to 4% after official readouts of a U.S.–Iran agreement and a delayed Vance trip offered no sign of an Iranian commitment to end enrichment.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 17, 2026
Iran enrichment-end odds jump on official US–Iran deal signals and impending Geneva talks
The market repriced higher after official statements acknowledged a US–Iran agreement and signaled imminent nuclear talks, likely boosting odds of a formal pledge by June 30.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 16, 2026
Israel–Iran peace odds drop 6.8pp as official signals center on US–Iran deal and gaps over Lebanon persist
The market fell to 15% (-6.8pp, 24h) for an Israel–Iran permanent peace by Jun 30, 2026, likely on signals that de‑escalation is US–Iran–focused while Israeli and Iranian positions on Lebanon remain far apart.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 14, 2026
US–Iran nuclear deal odds surge to 62% on reports of near-term accord; Quad IAEA action frames pressure
Odds jumped 17.5pp to 62% in 24h, likely on Reuters/AP reports of a possible U.S.–Iran agreement within days and coordinated Quad moves at the IAEA on Iran’s safeguards.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 12, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds jump to 70% after Trump signals deal "soon" and halts further strikes
Polymarket odds for a US-announced Iran ceasefire extension by June 30 spiked to 70% (+35.5pp), likely on Trump’s June 11 comment a deal is coming “soon” and a pause in further strikes.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 11, 2026
‘Project Freedom’ odds surge to 95% on US/Iran operations signals and allied statements
Polymarket odds that Trump will restart Project Freedom by June 30 spiked ~83pp to 95%, likely on US government signaling of planned Iran operations and allied Iran-related statements on June 10.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 5, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds plunge; repricing on IAEA monitoring warning and no US signal
Polymarket odds for a US-announced Iran ceasefire extension by June 7 fell 5.5pp to 6%, likely on adverse Iran nuclear oversight news and the absence of any qualifying US announcement as the deadline nears.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 3, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds rebound ~6pp; repricing tracks weaker ceasefire bets despite soft oil
The market rose to 26.5% (+6.4pp, 24h), likely reflecting repricing alongside falling ceasefire/diplomacy odds, while broader energy and volatility gauges did not confirm.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 1, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds drop sharply on lack of US announcement and Lebanon fighting
Polymarket odds for a US-announced Iran ceasefire extension by June 7 fell 8.5pp to 25%, likely on the absence of any qualifying US statement and AP reporting that fighting in Lebanon complicates an Iran-related deal.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 28, 2026
Iran June 27 shipping-attack odds spike to 99.6% on reports a ship was hit in the Strait of Hormuz
The market surged ~91pp to 99.6%, likely on June 27 reporting that a ship was struck in the Strait of Hormuz and coverage attributing drone activity to Iran.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 21, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds spike to ~95% on Swiss-confirmed talks and reports of Sunday in‑person engagement
Probability jumped 59pp to 94.7% after Swiss authorities said US–Iran talks are continuing at Bürgenstock and media reported US and Iranian envoys arriving in Switzerland for Sunday discussions.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 19, 2026
US–Iran meeting by Jun 19 plunges ~42pp on deadline timing doubts despite reported Friday talks
Traders marked down odds of a qualifying US–Iran in‑person diplomatic meeting before the Jun 19, 2026 deadline, likely on lack of official confirmation despite reports of Friday talks and an EU statement on a broader agreement.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 16, 2026
US–Iran agreement market spikes to 99.7% on June 15 deal announcements and EU confirmation
Pricing jumped 87.7 pp to 99.7%, likely on June 15 announcements of a US–Iran agreement and an EU Commission statement welcoming the deal and Hormuz reopening.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 9, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds fall; traders discount broad shutdown despite regional flare-ups
Pricing for an Israel-wide airspace shutdown by June 15 fell sharply over the past day, likely reflecting reports of routine resuming after missile sirens and no official closure notice.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 6, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds slump to 8% as June 15 deadline nears; no official deal signals
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran 'permanent peace' by June 15 fell 5.5pp to 8%, likely on deadline-driven repricing and no government confirmations of a deal.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 15, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension market spikes to 99.9% after NPR reports announced deal; late-day diplomacy cited
The market jumped ~75 pp to 99.9% by the June 14 deadline, likely on NPR’s report of a U.S.–Iran deal and AP’s same-day coverage of Qatari mediators finalizing terms in Tehran.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 10, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds drop sharply into deadline, amid no official closure signals in cited gov’t statements
Polymarket odds that Israel would close its airspace by June 9 fell to ~2%, an extreme 24h drop, likely as the deadline approached without any cited government announcements indicating a nationwide closure.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 8, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds surge to 99.6% amid reports of missile launch and drone shootdowns
Polymarket odds that Iran closes its airspace by June 8 jumped 96.9 pp to 99.6%, apparently driven by June 7 reports of an Iranian missile at Israel and U.S. downing Iranian drones.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 4, 2026
Polymarket odds of Israel extending Lebanon ceasefire plunge; move follows UK UN warning and reports of fresh Israeli strikes
Contract fell 37.5pp to 46% over 24h, likely on reports of new Israeli strikes near Beirut and a UK statement at the UN warning Blue Line escalation risks undermining ceasefire talks.
Polymarket Analysis • May 29, 2026
US–Iran “permanent peace” odds drop sharply on reports of new strikes and cautious US stance
Polymarket probability for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 7 fell 7.5pp to 21% in 24h, likely reflecting reports of reciprocal strikes and US statements of not rushing an agreement, with EU officials flagging continued Middle East t…
Polymarket Analysis • May 30, 2026
Hormuz blockade-lift odds jump to 27% on extreme 24h spike as deadline nears
Probability rose 12pp to 27% in the past day, an extreme move likely tied to the imminent May 31 deadline amid active U.S.–Iran diplomacy.
Polymarket Analysis • May 24, 2026
US–Iran peace-deal odds surge to 69% on reports of a ‘largely negotiated’ framework and ceasefire stability
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by May 31 spiked ~58pp to 69%, likely on Trump’s claim a deal is “largely negotiated” and AP reporting of progress in talks, with oil prices falling.
Polymarket Analysis • May 20, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 49% on official alarms over Strait of Hormuz disruptions
Polymarket odds for an Iran airspace closure by May 31 surged 11.5pp to 49% in 24 hours, likely reacting to UK/EU warnings on Hormuz disruptions and related fuel risks.
Polymarket Analysis • May 19, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds jump after reported US strike cancellation; de‑escalation signal leads
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 rose 10.5pp to 36% over 24h, likely on AP’s report that President Trump called off a planned strike on Iran at Gulf allies’ request.
Polymarket Analysis • May 17, 2026
US–Iran permanent peace odds plunge amid CENTCOM war update and Iranian warning on stalled talks
The market fell 6.5pp on the day (25pp on the week) as official signals emphasized ongoing hostilities and limited diplomatic traction, lowering near‑term odds of a permanent peace deal.
Polymarket Analysis • May 14, 2026
US–Iran permanent peace odds fall; UK sanctions and Hormuz mission weigh on deal prospects
The market fell 3.5pp to 13% in 24h (−16pp w/w), likely reflecting UK sanctions on Iranian targets and London’s new role in a Strait of Hormuz security mission, which undercut near‑term prospects for a formal deal.
Polymarket Analysis • May 12, 2026
Trump China-visit market surges to ~94% on clustered reports of a Trump–Xi summit and imminent travel
Probability jumped 10.6 pp in 24h (75.1 pp in 7d) to ~94%, likely on May 11 reports of a Trump–Xi summit and that President Trump is heading to China this week.
Polymarket Analysis • May 11, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds fall 11.5pp after US rejects Iranian reply; hardline US posture underscored
Polymarket probability for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 fell 11.5pp to 39%, likely on reports that President Trump rejected Iran’s latest ceasefire response and on firm US policy signals.
Polymarket Analysis • May 7, 2026
Hormuz ‘normal by end‑May’ odds jump on U.S. escort mission signals and softer oil
Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic hitting IMF Portwatch’s 60-transit 7DMA by May 31 rose 11.5 pp to 29%, likely on U.S. ‘Project Freedom’ escort updates and easing oil risk.
Polymarket Analysis • May 6, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds plunge to 9% as U.S. unveils ‘Project Freedom’ and diplomacy signals ease near-term risk
Polymarket odds that Iran closes its airspace by May 8 fell 16.5 pp to 9%, likely on the U.S. ‘Project Freedom’ announcement and reports of a pause for talks, reducing perceived near-term escalation.
Polymarket Analysis • May 5, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds jump to 53% on Hormuz escalation signals and EU energy-security focus
Polymarket odds for an Iran-ordered airspace closure by May 31 rose 14.5 pp to 53% today, likely on reports of renewed Hormuz tensions and EU attention to Middle East energy security.
Polymarket Analysis • May 4, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds fall sharply; slight uptick in Iran–US deal markets and steady oil backdrop
Pricing for an Iran airspace closure by May 8 dropped ~2.5pp to 12% over 24h, likely reflecting modest de-escalation cues in related Iran–US diplomacy markets and calm macro risk gauges.
Polymarket Analysis • May 1, 2026
US–Iran “permanent peace deal” odds drop sharply on hawkish signals and US planning
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 fell 10.5pp to 30%, likely on US State Department comments flagging major hurdles, Iran’s hardline rhetoric, and reports of new US military options.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 30, 2026
Odds of Trump announcing Hormuz blockade lift by May 31 plunge after US signals blockade remains conditional
Price fell 14pp to 44% as traders reacted to April 27 US State Department remarks framing the Hormuz blockade as ongoing and conditional, with no clear signal of an imminent lift.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 29, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace deal’ odds tick up after sharp weekly selloff; US signals “better” Iranian paper but core disputes persist
Odds rose to 30% (+2.5pp, 24h) but are down 23pp over 7 days, likely reflecting US statements of a temporary ceasefire and unresolved disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 28, 2026
US–Iran peace-deal odds plunge on UN clash and stalled talks; extreme weekly repricing
The market fell 7.5pp to 43% in 24h (−26.5pp in 7d), likely on AP-reported U.S.–Iran clashes at the UN NPT review and talks “in flux,” with a UK UNSC statement underscoring ongoing security risks.
Polymarket Analysis • May 31, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds plunge as no qualifying US announcement emerges ahead of May 31
Polymarket odds for a US-announced Iran ceasefire extension fell 18.5pp in 24h to 8%, likely on the absence of any qualifying US government statement and fresh reporting of regional enforcement actions.
Polymarket Analysis • May 28, 2026
Polymarket: Odds of U.S.-announced Iran ceasefire extension by May 31 fall on lack of official signal
Price fell 11pp to 26% over 24h, likely reflecting no qualifying U.S. announcement as the May 31 deadline approaches, despite reports of Cabinet-level talks.
Polymarket Analysis • May 27, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds plunge on May 26 amid US strikes reports and no qualifying US statement
Polymarket odds fell 16pp to ~1.5% as traders reacted to reports of US strikes in Iran and the absence of a qualifying US ceasefire-extension announcement before the May 26 deadline.
Polymarket Analysis • May 26, 2026
Iran ceasefire-through-May-31 odds plunge as late-May breakdown risk gets priced across adjacent contracts
The market fell ~79 pp in 24h to 2.8%, likely linked to synchronized selloffs in nearer-dated ceasefire contracts and news framing negotiations as uncertain.
Polymarket Analysis • May 25, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds plunge as May 26 deadline nears and reports focus on ceasefire steps
Polymarket’s “US × Iran permanent peace by May 26, 2026” fell 54pp to 9%, likely on the imminent deadline, reporting that centers on ceasefire de-escalation (not a permanent deal), and no official US/Iran confirmation.
Polymarket Analysis • May 23, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds surge to 98% amid official Hormuz warnings and unresolved talks
Pricing for “Iran closes its airspace by May 24?” spiked ~83 pp to ~98%, likely on official warnings about Strait of Hormuz disruptions and continued uncertainty in Iran talks.