Polymarket Briefs
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Markets marked resolved or closed, paired with the published brief that covered the setup.
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Useful for reviewing what was covered before outcomes were known.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 5, 2026
‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31?’ jumps to 94% on official US war updates and reports of downed jet over Iran
Probability rose 27.5pp over 7 days to 94%, likely on U.S. government statements of ongoing operations in Iran and reporting on a downed U.S. aircraft and missing aircrew on Iranian soil.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 2, 2026
Polymarket: ‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ dips; de‑escalation signals and official timelines weigh
The market slid ~1.5pp to 65% over 24h, likely reflecting U.S. government messaging that objectives are near and “weeks, not months” from completion, plus de‑escalation cues flagged by AP.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 29, 2026
Polymarket ‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ surges; official G7 and US/UK defense signals lift perceived risk
Pricing for ‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ moved sharply higher, likely on coordinated G7 messaging on Iran and fresh US/UK operational updates indicating sustained regional hostilities.
Polymarket Analysis • May 12, 2026
Trump China-visit market surges to ~94% on clustered reports of a Trump–Xi summit and imminent travel
Probability jumped 10.6 pp in 24h (75.1 pp in 7d) to ~94%, likely on May 11 reports of a Trump–Xi summit and that President Trump is heading to China this week.
Polymarket Analysis • May 6, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds plunge to 9% as U.S. unveils ‘Project Freedom’ and diplomacy signals ease near-term risk
Polymarket odds that Iran closes its airspace by May 8 fell 16.5 pp to 9%, likely on the U.S. ‘Project Freedom’ announcement and reports of a pause for talks, reducing perceived near-term escalation.
Polymarket Analysis • May 4, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds fall sharply; slight uptick in Iran–US deal markets and steady oil backdrop
Pricing for an Iran airspace closure by May 8 dropped ~2.5pp to 12% over 24h, likely reflecting modest de-escalation cues in related Iran–US diplomacy markets and calm macro risk gauges.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 7, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by May 31 odds jump to 47% on US officials signaling objectives near completion
Polymarket odds rose 6.5pp to 47%, likely on US government statements that military objectives in Iran are nearing completion and that messages are being exchanged, alongside fresh deadline-focused headlines.
Polymarket Analysis • May 10, 2026
US–Iran in-person meeting odds tumble; traders react to hardline US stance and no meeting announced
Probability fell 6.5pp to 17% as US officials stressed enforcement over engagement and no in-person talks were announced, while the US is still awaiting Iran’s response, per AP.
Polymarket Analysis • May 2, 2026
Odds of a Trump announcement lifting the Hormuz blockade fall; US signals and oil spike point to continued pressure
The market fell 4.5pp to 15%, likely reflecting US government messaging that the blockade remains in place and reports of a potential extension, reducing odds of a near-term lift.
Polymarket Analysis • May 9, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ by May 11 odds fall; US stance, renewed strikes weigh on near‑term window
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by May 11 slid 3.5pp to 6% in 24h, likely on firm US government messaging about defensive naval operations and sanctions plus reports of fresh regional attacks.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 13, 2026
Odds plunge that Trump will announce end of Iran operations by Apr 30, after talks collapse and blockade move
Polymarket probability fell 25.5 pp to 26% as U.S.–Iran talks ended without a deal and Axios reported Trump announced a naval blockade, cutting near-term odds of an end-of-operations statement.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 28, 2026
Hormuz blockade-lift odds crash into single digits as U.S. officials signal policy unchanged and deadline looms
Polymarket odds that Trump will announce lifting the U.S. Strait of Hormuz blockade by Apr 30 fell to 5% (−7.5pp on the day), likely due to the imminent deadline and U.S. statements indicating the blockade remains in place.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 28, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds plunge to 2.3% after US confirms Islamabad talks canceled and direct contacts rare
Probability fell 7.2pp to 2.3% as Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed planned Islamabad talks were canceled and said US–Iran contacts remain mostly indirect, with the April 30 deadline imminent.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 26, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds collapse as Islamabad talks pause; US blockade stance weighs
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran diplomatic meeting by Apr 30 fell 53pp to 13%, following reports that Pakistan-hosted talks were put on hold and U.S. envoys did not attend; a U.S. maritime blockade posture added pressure.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 24, 2026
US–Iran diplomatic meeting odds plunge on reports of talks “in limbo” and no near‑term urgency
Probability dropped 29pp to 25% in 24h, likely on reports that U.S.–Iran talks remain in limbo, the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and the ceasefire was extended with “no time pressure.”
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 22, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds plunge after reported failed Pakistan talks; maritime security posture hardens
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran in‑person diplomatic meeting by Apr 30 fell ~31pp to 57%, likely on reports the sides failed to meet in Pakistan and on stepped‑up maritime security actions.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 21, 2026
Strait of Hormuz normalization odds slump on US blockade enforcement and ceasefire uncertainty
Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April fell 12.5pp to 17%, likely on a US announcement of blockade enforcement and reports that a US–Iran ceasefire extension faces obstacles.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 21, 2026
US–Iran meeting (by Apr 22, 2026) ticks higher; timing shift from Apr 21 variant amid US blockade news
The market rose 3pp to 69% over 24h, likely reflecting a one‑day timing shift from the April 21 twin contract, despite a US government blockade action and media signals questioning near‑term talks.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 18, 2026
Hormuz “normal traffic by Apr 30” odds surge on Iran’s ‘open’ declaration and UK/EU pressure
Yes-probability jumped after Iran said the Strait is “completely open” during a ceasefire, and UK/EU statements pressed for restoring safe commercial passage.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 17, 2026
US–Iran “permanent peace” odds surge; mediation push and regional ceasefire headlines in focus
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by Apr 30, 2026 rose to 41% (+3.5pp/24h; +21.5pp/7d), likely on reports of active mediation to extend a ceasefire and broader regional de‑escalation signals.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 16, 2026
Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire odds jump on new Israel–Lebanon talks and fresh government statements
Polymarket pricing for an Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire by Apr 30, 2026 surged ~25pp, likely on reports of new Israel–Lebanon talks (AP) and coordinated government statements on Lebanon.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 15, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace deal’ odds jump on renewed-talks reports; oil and risk gauges ease
Polymarket odds rose to 39% after reports of possible US–Iran talks resuming in Islamabad, with risk assets firmer and oil softer on de‑escalation hopes.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 12, 2026
Strait of Hormuz ‘normal traffic by Apr 30’ odds jump; de-escalation signals and EU energy coordination cited
The market’s Yes probability rose 11.5pp to 33% in 24h, likely on de-escalation signals, EU oil/gas coordination, and softer energy-risk pricing, despite mine-clearance uncertainty.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 10, 2026
‘April 9’ Iran strike-cessation market surges to 97% on US–Iran ceasefire signals
The Polymarket contract on military action against Iran ending April 9 jumped ~57pp to 97%, likely on Apr 8 government ceasefire statements and an Apr 9 truce report.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 9, 2026
Hormuz “normal traffic” odds plunge as shippers stay cautious despite ceasefire and policy noise
The market fell 35pp to 27%, likely on reports of continued carrier caution and new policy uncertainty (Iran tolls), despite official ceasefire signals and facilitation plans.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 4, 2026
Polymarket odds for 'US forces enter Iran by Apr 30' surge to 85% on US war statements and downed jet report
Contract repriced sharply higher, likely on official U.S. briefings about ongoing operations in Iran and news a U.S. jet went down over Iran, tightening the window to April 30.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 1, 2026
“US forces enter Iran by Apr 30?” drops 12pp; defensive US moves and EU oil-security focus cool near-term incursion odds
The market fell to 58% (−12pp, 24h), likely as traders digested AP reporting that fresh U.S. deployments are framed as deterrent and an EU Commission call prioritized energy security over escalation.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 30, 2026
Polymarket: ‘US forces enter Iran by April 30?’ surges to 71% on official conflict updates and G7 focus
The contract jumped to 71%, likely on coordinated G7 statements, a U.S. operational update, and UK reporting of active air-defense actions, all pointing to elevated near-term conflict risk.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 26, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds plunge as near-term talks stall and US announces Iran-focused maritime blockade
Probability for a US–Iran diplomatic meeting by Apr 29 fell 55pp to 10%, likely on halted Pakistan talks and a US government announcement of a global Iran-related maritime blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 26, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds plunge after Axios reports U.S. envoys’ trip canceled; U.S. gov touts Iran-focused blockade
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran diplomatic meeting by Apr 28, 2026 fell 43.5 pp to 8%, likely on an Axios report canceling a U.S. envoys’ trip and a U.S. government blockade announcement.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 27, 2026
Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire extension odds bounce 9pp into deadline, but remain 32pp lower on week amid de‑escalation doubts
The market for an Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire extension rose to 28% (+9pp/24h) as the April 26 deadline approached, but is still down 32pp on the week, likely reflecting weaker de‑escalation signals and broader risk repricing.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 26, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds collapse before Apr 27 deadline amid stalled talks and US blockade stance
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran diplomatic meeting by Apr 27 fell ~46pp to 1.9%, likely on stalled Pakistan talks and a US announcement enforcing a maritime blockade on Iran.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 25, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds jump on Pakistan-brokered talks push and US ceasefire extension reports
Pricing surged toward coin‑flip, likely on AP reports of Pakistan mediating US–Iran talks and Trump announcing a US ceasefire extension at Islamabad’s request.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 23, 2026
Hormuz blockade-lift odds crash as US enforcement continues and UK leads reopening planning
Polymarket odds fell 17.5pp to 6% as official signals pointed to the blockade remaining in force—U.S. enforcement (Apr 20) and a UK-led planning conference (Apr 21) suggest no imminent lift.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 22, 2026
US–Iran meeting-by-Apr-23 odds collapse as deadline nears; US reports blockade enforcement
The market fell 63pp to 15% in 24h, likely as the April 23 deadline approaches with no official meeting announced, amid a US statement on blockade enforcement and reports of a ceasefire extension.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 19, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace deal’ odds plunge on Hormuz crisis reports and official warnings
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by Apr 22, 2026 fell 9.5pp to 20%, likely on reports Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and US/EU/UK statements signaling heightened tensions.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 22, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds plunge on lack of joint confirmation and fresh Hormuz risks
The market fell 35pp to 24% over 24h, likely on the absence of a mutually confirmed US–Iran extension before the Apr 22 deadline and new Hormuz security incidents.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 20, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire extension odds fall sharply after US blockade action and talks uncertainty
The market sold off 14.5pp to 34% today, likely on a US government announcement enforcing a naval blockade against an Iranian vessel and reporting that ship seizure has cast doubt on near‑term talks.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 20, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds surge to 49% on last-ditch engagement reports and official signals
The market jumped 10.5pp to 49%, likely on reports of last‑ditch engagement via Pakistan and U.S./European official statements during a narrowing ceasefire window.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 14, 2026
Israel–Iran strike odds plunge 29pp as official signals stress maritime security and ceasefire talks
Pricing for an Israeli strike on Iranian soil by Apr 21 fell 29pp to 22%, likely on Apr 13 government signals prioritizing Hormuz mine‑clearing and comments on Iran–US ceasefire sincerity.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 7, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 15 surges to 57% on Trump ultimatum and official US Iran-ops briefings
The market jumped 41.5pp to 57%, as traders appeared to react to President Trump’s 8 p.m. ET Iran deadline and fresh U.S. government disclosures of operations inside Iran.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 6, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire (by Apr 15) jumps to 12% on US signals operations are “near completion”
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 15 rose 6.5pp to 12% in 24h, apparently reacting to US government statements that objectives in Iran are nearing completion and fresh reports on active operations.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire (by Apr 15) drops 8.5pp as positions harden; UK UNHRC statements underscore tensions
The Apr 15 US–Iran ceasefire market fell to 29% (−8.5pp, 24h), likely on reports of firmer stances and Hormuz friction, alongside UK statements at the UNHRC condemning Iranian aggression.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 23, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 15: probability jumps to 30% amid escalation headlines and external pressure
The US–Iran ceasefire-by-Apr-15 market rose 5.5pp to 30% in 24h, likely reflecting trader positioning after high-profile escalation headlines and signs of international pressure.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 11, 2026
US–Iran meeting by Apr 10 odds plunge into deadline; later-dated markets surge on ceasefire signals
Price fell ~19pp to 6% into the Apr 10 cutoff, likely on lack of public confirmation of an in‑person US–Iran meeting, while official April 8 ceasefire statements boosted later-dated “meeting” markets.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 8, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 surges to ~99% on cross-market repricing; no matching ceasefire news
The Polymarket contract jumped about 70pp to 99.4%, likely driven by synchronized repricing across related US–Iran ceasefire markets; no public ceasefire agreement has been announced.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 7, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 7 surges to 74% as 8 p.m. ET ultimatum nears; cross-contracts reprice higher
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 7 spiked ~72 pp to 74%, likely on deadline-focused positioning around Trump’s 8 p.m. ET ultimatum and heavy cross-market flows.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 3, 2026
US–Iran Apr 30 ceasefire odds plunge after US officials signal operations continue
Polymarket odds of a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 fell 15.5pp to 23%, likely on April 1–2 US government statements stressing ongoing operations and no immediate truce.