Polymarket Briefs
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Markets marked resolved or closed, paired with the published brief that covered the setup.
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Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
Odds Trump announces end of Iran operations by Mar 31 drop sharply amid signs of continued campaign and new troop deployments
The market fell 7.5pp to 13%, likely reflecting reports of sustained U.S. strike tempo and fresh troop deployments that cut the odds of an imminent “end of operations” announcement.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 31, 2026
Odds of crude hitting $100 by March surge to near-certainty as WTI trades above $106; Iran risk and EU signals in focus
Polymarket’s “CL ≥$100 by end of March” probability jumped 14pp to 99.9%, likely on front‑month WTI trading above $106 and escalating Iran-related tensions flagged by EU lawmakers.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 29, 2026
Odds of US forces entering Iran by Mar 31 drop sharply as G7 signals restraint, no ground-entry indications
Polymarket pricing fell 6pp to 11% over 24h, likely on G7 statements emphasizing minimizing escalation and the absence of evidence that U.S. troops will cross into Iran before the Mar 31 deadline.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 28, 2026
Odds of oil settling ≥$100 by March 31 spike on WTI >$100 and EU warnings on Hormuz risk
Polymarket odds jumped 44pp to 76% after WTI printed above $100 and EU parliamentary queries flagged Strait of Hormuz disruption and war-risk insurance concerns.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
Odds of WTI $100-by-March rebound to 42% on Iran–Hormuz risk and official UK/EU signals
Yes-probability jumped ~18pp in 24h to 42.3%, likely on renewed supply-risk pricing tied to Iran–Strait of Hormuz tensions and UK/EU statements underscoring Gulf escalation.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 25, 2026
‘US forces enter Iran by Mar 31’ odds rebound; sharp daily uptick on deployment signals as deadline nears
Implied odds rose 4.5pp to 20% in 24h, likely on fresh Pentagon deployment headlines and end‑March timing, even as the 7‑day trend remains lower.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 25, 2026
Israel–Lebanon ground offensive odds surge to 99.9% amid Iran war signals and Beirut’s Iran envoy expulsion
Over the past week, market odds jumped 25 points to 99.9%, likely reflecting traders pricing in near‑term action as Israel’s war with Iran continues and Lebanon expels Iran’s ambassador.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 24, 2026
Odds that CME Crude (CL) settles at $100 by Mar 31 plunge on de-escalation headlines and WTI near $89
The market’s probability dropped sharply to 38% as de-escalation talk around the U.S.–Iran conflict eased oil prices, with WTI around $89 reducing the path to a $100 month-end settlement.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 23, 2026
Israel–Lebanon ground offensive odds surge to 98.7% amid late-window repricing and regional escalation signals
The market’s probability for a major Israeli ground offensive in Lebanon by Mar 31, 2026 jumped about 20pp this week to 98.7%, likely reflecting late-window repricing and broader escalation signals.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 22, 2026
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Odds rebound on DoD strike update, conflict persists
The market ticked up ~3.5pp to 21% in 24h—an extreme daily move—likely reacting to official updates on ongoing U.S. operations and reporting that the war shows no near-term end.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 20, 2026
Odds of Iranian regime falling by Mar 31 drop sharply as deadline nears amid ongoing war
The market’s probability fell over the past week to 2.3%, an extreme 7‑day downside move, likely reflecting the contract’s imminent March 31 deadline despite continued war headlines.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 20, 2026
Odds of US forces entering Iran by Mar 31 plunge over the week as traders push risk into April
The market fell about 17pp over the past week to 18%, likely reflecting the shrinking March window and cross-market pricing that places higher odds on an April entry.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 20, 2026
Probability of Netanyahu Leaving Office by March 31 Drops Amid Regional Tensions
The market probability that Netanyahu will be out by March 31 declined by 5.8 percentage points over the past week, likely reflecting ongoing regional conflict and political stability signals.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 20, 2026
Probability of Crude Oil Hitting $120 by March End Declines Amid Regional Tensions and Market Volatility
The market probability for crude oil reaching $120 by the end of March dropped 18 percentage points over the past week, likely reflecting persistent geopolitical risks and recent price trends.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
Odds of a US–Iran ceasefire by March 31 fall to 13% amid hardened stances and Hormuz tensions
Polymarket’s probability for a US–Iran ceasefire by March 31 dropped 7pp to 13%, likely reflecting reports of hardened positions, ongoing regional strikes, and Strait of Hormuz pressure.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 21, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Mar 31 slides over the week as conflict signals persist
Odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Mar 31 fell 8.5 pp over seven days to 8%, likely reflecting continued hostilities, fresh deployments, and no official signs of talks as the deadline nears.