Polymarket Briefs
Recently Resolved
Markets marked resolved or closed, paired with the published brief that covered the setup.
Resolved Market Timeline
Useful for reviewing what was covered before outcomes were known.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 12, 2026
US–Iran blockade odds jump to 56% after Trump threats; allied governments spotlight Hormuz
Polymarket odds that the US will announce a blockade on Iran by Dec 31 rose 17pp to 56%, likely on Trump’s public threats and fresh official focus on Strait of Hormuz navigation.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 11, 2026
US–Iran blockade odds drop 7.5pp; UK and Australia urge de‑escalation amid fresh strikes
Polymarket’s “US blockade of Iran by Dec 31” fell to 41% (-7.5pp in 24h), likely on July 10 allied government calls for de-escalation that tempered a week of escalation-driven gains.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 23, 2026
Starmer ‘Next Leader Out’ odds spike to 80% after resignation announcement and near-term exit reports
The market on Keir Starmer being the next leader out before 2027 jumped 41pp to 80%, likely on confirmation he will step down and leave office within weeks, per reporting from NPR and AP.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 22, 2026
Petro ‘Next Leader Out’ odds plunge as Starmer resignation reprices frontrunner
Odds that Gustavo Petro would be the next leader to leave office fell ~39.5pp to 12%, likely as traders shifted to Keir Starmer after his June 22 resignation announcement and expected near‑term departure.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 5, 2026
Kostyantynivka capture odds surge; claim–counterclaim cycle likely drove an extreme repricing
Polymarket odds that Russia captures Kostyantynivka by Sep 30, 2026 jumped 15pp to 89%, likely on fresh Russian capture claims and high-profile Ukrainian denials drawing trader focus.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 28, 2026
US–Iran halt odds surge to 95% on reported attack pause and mediator progress
Polymarket odds for a US announcement halting offensive operations against Iran jumped ~54 points to 95.6%, likely on reports of a US–Iran pause in attacks and mediator-led de‑escalation talks.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 19, 2026
Kostyantynivka capture odds spike to 98.8% on deadline-driven repricing and cross-market alignment
Odds that Russia captures Kostyantynivka by Aug 31 surged 73pp to 98.8% in 24h, likely a deadline-driven repricing reinforced by parallel jumps in adjacent Kostyantynivka markets.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 12, 2026
Odds of a US announcement ending Iran blockade tick up; AP sanctions pivot cited while oil strength caps rebound
The market rose 4pp to 14% over 24h, likely on AP reporting of an Aug 11 US pivot back to Iran sanctions, but a steep 7d slide persists amid no official US signal and elevated oil prices.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 9, 2026
US end‑of‑Iran‑blockade odds plunge 30pp on no US announcement as Aug 15 deadline nears
Polymarket contract fell 30pp to 34% in 24h, apparently on the absence of any qualifying US government statement ending the Iran naval blockade as the Aug 15 window approaches.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 5, 2026
‘End of Iranian blockade by Aug 15?’ jumps to 63% on AP report of Iran–Oman strait talks
The market rose 21.5pp to 63% in 24h, likely on an AP report that Iran and Oman made progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting odds of a U.S. announcement ending the blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 3, 2026
Odds surge for US to announce end of Iranian blockade, driven by Aug 2 de-escalation signals
Price jumped 29.5pp to 47% in 24h, likely on Aug 2 remarks about pausing Iran strikes and State Department comments about a potential “deal on the straits.”
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 2, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds rise to 27% amid Iran strike rhetoric and official security statements
Odds that Israel will close its airspace by Aug 15 rose to 27% (+2.5pp/24h), likely on heightened regional security signals including Iran-related rhetoric and government statements on Israel-Palestine.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 13, 2026
Polymarket: Odds of US announcing end of Iranian blockade plunge as deadline nears; no US signal, IEA highlights Hormuz constraints
Probability fell 7.5pp to 3% as the Aug 14 deadline approaches without a qualifying US announcement, while an IEA note underscored that a Hormuz reopening remains elusive.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 7, 2026
Odds of US announcing end of Iranian blockade by Aug 7 plunge on no official signal and hostile Iranian proposal
The Aug 7 contract fell 21.1pp to 15.5% as the deadline approached without a qualifying US announcement; Iranian hardline moves and lack of de‑escalatory signals likely weighed.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 29, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade plunge; fresh hostilities and no qualifying US signal cited
Polymarket probability fell 7.5pp to 7%, likely on AP-reported Iranian missile attack against US forces and the absence of any official US move to end the blockade as the July 31 deadline nears.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 25, 2026
Trump–Netanyahu meeting odds surge to 90% on White House scheduling signal and intensifying Iran conflict
The market jumped 62pp to 90%, likely on the White House confirming a Trump–Zelenskyy meeting next week and U.S. government reports of continued strikes on Iran that concentrate near‑term diplomacy.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 22, 2026
Syrskyi-out market spikes to 99.8% after reports of his dismissal; Drapatyi named as replacement
The contract surged 31.45 pp to 99.8% after AP and NPR reported on July 21 that President Zelenskyy dismissed Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi and appointed Mykhailo Drapatyi as commander-in-chief.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 13, 2026
Iran blockade odds jump to 31% over the week; cross-markets and oil firm as official rhetoric spotlights Gulf risk
The contract climbed ~20 pp over the week to 31%, likely reflecting heightened Gulf risk signaled in official statements and a 9% weekly rise in Brent crude.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 30, 2026
U.S. anti-cartel abroad market spikes to 90.6% on deadline repricing; no USG confirmation in cited sources
Probability jumped 61pp to 90.6% in 24h, an extreme move likely driven by last‑minute repricing ahead of the July 31 contract deadline; no relevant U.S. government confirmation appears in the provided sources.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 24, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds surge to 35% on extreme weekly repricing amid Iran-war headlines and EU policy signals
Polymarket odds that Israel closes its airspace by July 31 jumped 6.5pp to 35%, likely reflecting concentrated Iran-war news and a flurry of European government statements on Israel this week.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 23, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds jump to 27% on fresh Iran–Israel escalation reports
The market rose 6.5pp to 27% in 24h, likely reacting to AP reports on July 22 of Iranian strikes near Israel and new U.S. strikes, which raised perceived closure risk.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 21, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds drop to 20% as July 31 window narrows; related tail-risk markets also fall
Pricing fell 9.5pp to 20% over 24h, likely on time-window compression and a lack of fresh official closure signals, with parallel near-term markets moving lower.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 16, 2026
Israel July airspace-closure odds fall; de-escalation steps on Lebanon border cited as likely driver
The Polymarket contract on Israel closing its airspace by July 31 fell 3.5pp to 10% over 24h, likely on reports of Israel–Lebanon border implementation steps that reduce near‑term escalation risk.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 10, 2026
Odds Mojtaba Khamenei is seen by July 31 rebound to 8% amid UK and EU actions spotlighting Iran
Polymarket odds rose 2.5pp to 8% over 24h after a week-long slide, likely alongside UK and EU moves keeping Iran in focus, while related markets show only partial confirmation.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 8, 2026
Hormuz traffic-normalization odds plunge on tanker attack reports and UK–Iran diplomatic flare-up
Odds fell 4.5pp in 24h and 25.5pp in 7d, likely on reports of a tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz and fresh UK diplomatic action toward Iran.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 7, 2026
Strait of Hormuz ‘normal by July 31’ odds plunge on deadline risk and lack of qualifying IMF Portwatch prints
The market fell 6.5pp in 24h and 29.5pp over 7d to 9%, likely as traders price in the July 31 deadline with no IMF Portwatch 7‑day average ≥60 yet published; related maturities also dropped.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 13, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds surge to 51% on reports of imminent memorandum and cease-fire framework
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by July 31 rose 9.5 pp to 51%, likely on reports of an imminent Geneva memorandum and cease-fire framework, despite recent government statements highlighting continued concerns over Iran.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 7, 2026
US–Iran permanent peace odds plunge after reported US shootdown of Iranian drones
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026 fell 11.5pp to 28% over 24h, likely on fresh hostilities reported by NPR and synchronized declines in related deadlines.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 3, 2026
Strait of Hormuz ‘normal by July 15’ odds tumble after Iranian tanker routing warning
Polymarket odds fell 6.5pp to 7%, likely on AP-reported Iranian directives to tankers and no clear de‑escalation signals, cutting confidence the ≥60-ship 7‑day average will be hit before July 15.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 1, 2026
Lebanon–Israel recognition odds plunge as June 30 cutoff nears; no official act evident
Polymarket pricing fell ~15 pp in 24h to 8.8% as the June 30, 2026 cutoff approaches without an official Lebanese recognition, while official statements focused elsewhere.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 2, 2026
Hormuz “40+ ships in a day” market jumps to 99.9% on ceasefire-enabled traffic signals
Pricing surged 12.4 pp to 99.9%, likely reflecting signals that Strait of Hormuz transits resumed under a fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire and traders’ confidence in late‑June counts.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 26, 2026
Hormuz ‘60 ships in a day’ odds spike; AP tanker transit and rising Mideast supply tone lift pricing
Polymarket odds that any June 2026 day sees ≥60 ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz jumped 27.5pp to 56%, likely on reports of continued tanker passages and a softer oil-supply backdrop.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 24, 2026
Hormuz ≥20-ship odds spike to ~99% after AP notes rising transits; traders price low threshold by June 30
Price jumped 7.7pp to 99.2%, likely on AP reporting that more vessels are venturing through the Strait of Hormuz despite disruptions, lifting confidence that at least one day will meet the ≥20-ship threshold before June 30.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 30, 2026
Vučić ‘out by June 30, 2026’ market spikes to near-certainty on step-down statement and imminent cutoff
Polymarket odds surged to near 100% after reports on June 29 that Aleksandar Vučić said he will step down, with the contract’s immediate-resolution-on-announcement rule and the June 30 cutoff concentrating conviction.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 22, 2026
Hormuz transit-fee odds pop on Switzerland talks; EU notes US–Iran accord to reopen strait
The “Yes” price rose 1.25pp to 3% over 24h, likely on headlines that U.S. and Iranian officials are meeting in Switzerland with Hormuz on the agenda, even as weekly pricing remains lower.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 20, 2026
Iran enrichment-halt odds collapse as talks slip and EU readouts omit nuclear pledge
The market fell 58pp to 4% after official readouts of a U.S.–Iran agreement and a delayed Vance trip offered no sign of an Iranian commitment to end enrichment.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 18, 2026
Hormuz ‘normal by June’ odds jump on EU-backed US–Iran agreement and leaked reopening terms
Polymarket odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by end-June rose 4.5pp to 22%, likely on an EU-backed US–Iran understanding and reports that reopening terms include restored passage.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 17, 2026
Iran enrichment-end odds jump on official US–Iran deal signals and impending Geneva talks
The market repriced higher after official statements acknowledged a US–Iran agreement and signaled imminent nuclear talks, likely boosting odds of a formal pledge by June 30.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 16, 2026
Israel–Iran peace odds drop 6.8pp as official signals center on US–Iran deal and gaps over Lebanon persist
The market fell to 15% (-6.8pp, 24h) for an Israel–Iran permanent peace by Jun 30, 2026, likely on signals that de‑escalation is US–Iran–focused while Israeli and Iranian positions on Lebanon remain far apart.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 14, 2026
US–Iran nuclear deal odds surge to 62% on reports of near-term accord; Quad IAEA action frames pressure
Odds jumped 17.5pp to 62% in 24h, likely on Reuters/AP reports of a possible U.S.–Iran agreement within days and coordinated Quad moves at the IAEA on Iran’s safeguards.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 12, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds jump to 70% after Trump signals deal "soon" and halts further strikes
Polymarket odds for a US-announced Iran ceasefire extension by June 30 spiked to 70% (+35.5pp), likely on Trump’s June 11 comment a deal is coming “soon” and a pause in further strikes.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 11, 2026
‘Project Freedom’ odds surge to 95% on US/Iran operations signals and allied statements
Polymarket odds that Trump will restart Project Freedom by June 30 spiked ~83pp to 95%, likely on US government signaling of planned Iran operations and allied Iran-related statements on June 10.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 5, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire-extension odds plunge; repricing on IAEA monitoring warning and no US signal
Polymarket odds for a US-announced Iran ceasefire extension by June 7 fell 5.5pp to 6%, likely on adverse Iran nuclear oversight news and the absence of any qualifying US announcement as the deadline nears.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 3, 2026
Iran airspace-closure odds rebound ~6pp; repricing tracks weaker ceasefire bets despite soft oil
The market rose to 26.5% (+6.4pp, 24h), likely reflecting repricing alongside falling ceasefire/diplomacy odds, while broader energy and volatility gauges did not confirm.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 2, 2026
Hormuz traffic-normalization odds fall sharply on U.S. strikes near strait and EU supply-risk signals
The market fell 7.5pp to 22% in 24h, likely on U.S. strikes near Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz and EU warnings on Middle East energy supply risks, alongside a narrowing June 30 deadline.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 29, 2026
Odds Lebanon recognizes Israel plunge 49pp as June 30 deadline looms; repricing follows escalation signals
The contract fell 49 percentage points to 20.8% in 24h, likely as traders reacted to fresh Israel–Hezbollah and US–Iran escalation and the imminent June 30 cutoff that requires formal, not declaratory, recognition.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 28, 2026
Iran June 27 shipping-attack odds spike to 99.6% on reports a ship was hit in the Strait of Hormuz
The market surged ~91pp to 99.6%, likely on June 27 reporting that a ship was struck in the Strait of Hormuz and coverage attributing drone activity to Iran.
Polymarket Analysis • Jun 21, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds spike to ~95% on Swiss-confirmed talks and reports of Sunday in‑person engagement
Probability jumped 59pp to 94.7% after Swiss authorities said US–Iran talks are continuing at Bürgenstock and media reported US and Iranian envoys arriving in Switzerland for Sunday discussions.