Polymarket Briefs
Recently Resolved
Markets marked resolved or closed, paired with the published brief that covered the setup.
Resolved Market Timeline
Useful for reviewing what was covered before outcomes were known.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 7, 2026
Ternuvate incursion odds spike to 98.6% on escalation cues and contract mechanics
The market jumped 37pp to 98.6% in 24h, likely as traders priced heightened conflict signals and the ISW-based resolution terms that apply through Oct 31, 2026 (ET).
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 26, 2026
Saudi East–West pipeline restart odds plunge as deadline nears with no Saudi confirmation
Probability fell 14.5pp to 21% in 24h, likely reflecting the fast-approaching Oct 1 market deadline without a qualifying Saudi government restart announcement, while official statements focused on maritime security.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 23, 2026
Saudi East–West pipeline restart odds surge to 64% amid G7 censure of Houthi attacks and new UK support
Polymarket odds for a Saudi East–West pipeline restart by Sep 30 jumped 33.5 pp to 64%, likely following coordinated G7 statements on Red Sea security and the UK’s added defensive support to Saudi Arabia on Sep 22.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 17, 2026
Saudi East–West pipeline restart odds surge; repricing follows Yemen-related official statements and elevated Brent
Odds that Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline restarts by Sept. 30 jumped sharply, likely on heightened Yemen-related official statements and persistently high Brent prices that raise incentives to restore flows.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 15, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade by Sep 30 tick up on EU export-control update and recent Quad statement
Price rose to 14% over the last day, likely reflecting sensitivity to fresh policy signals — notably the EU’s updated dual‑use controls (Sep 14) and the US–UK–France–Germany Quad statement to the IAEA on Iran (Sep 10).
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 14, 2026
Odds of an Iran–Oman Hormuz agreement plunge; traders price in time pressure and IAEA-focused Iran diplomacy
The market fell 22 pp to 20% in 24h, likely on deadline-driven time decay, no qualifying joint announcements, and fresh IAEA-centered statements on Iran from the UK and partners.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 12, 2026
Odds of a US end to the Iran blockade by Sep 30 jump; move tracks IAEA-linked official statements
Polymarket odds for a US announcement ending/suspending the Iran blockade by Sep 30 rose 6.5pp to 21% over 24h, likely on fresh IAEA-week government statements and heightened energy-risk context.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 8, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds surge to ~96% amid Iran tensions and official condemnations
Implied odds that Israel will initiate a major airspace closure by Sep 30 jumped 22pp to 95.8% in 24h, likely reflecting heightened regional risk after Iranian missile rhetoric and a Canadian government condemnation.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 6, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds spike to 69% after new regional security reports
Odds that Israel closes its airspace by Sep 30 jumped ~29pp to 69%, likely reflecting trader reaction to fresh AP reports of Israel–Hezbollah clashes and U.S.–Iran tensions.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 5, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds jump; traders key on Iran-related headlines and allied airspace focus
Polymarket odds that Israel will close its airspace by Sept. 30 spiked to 40% (up 29.5pp in 24h), likely on Iran-linked security headlines and NATO’s focus on airfield denial.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 31, 2026
Odds of a US announcement ending the Iran blockade drop; AP reports strikes and new sanctions plan
Pricing fell 1.5pp on the day and 11.5pp on the week, likely on reports of fresh US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and plans to sanction another bank tied to Iran transactions.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 28, 2026
Iran–Oman Hormuz pact odds plunge; selloff follows US pressure signals and no qualifying announcements
The market fell 21.5pp to 37% over 24h, likely on heightened US pressure around Iran trade and the absence of any joint Iran–Oman statement that would meet the market’s strict criteria.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 26, 2026
Odds of a US announcement ending Iran blockade jump; media on shortages, new sanctions likely catalyze move
The market rose 11.5pp to 40% over 24h, an extreme move likely tied to clustered reporting on Iran’s fuel shortages and fresh US sanctions coverage, despite no new US government statement ending the blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 20, 2026
Iran–Oman Hormuz deal odds fall sharply amid UAE–Iran escalation and French expulsions
The market fell 7pp in 24h (to 52%) and 20.5pp in 7d, likely on heightened Gulf tensions after the UAE suspended trade with Iran and France expelled Iranian diplomats.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 15, 2026
Odds of US announcing end of Iranian blockade by Sept 30 drop sharply on stalled talks and allied pressure signals
The market fell 14.5pp to 41% over 24h, likely on reports of stalled US–Iran diplomacy and coordinated allied statements criticizing Iran, reducing expectations of a near-term US announcement to lift the blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 10, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade by Sept 30 drop 17pp on lack of official signal
The market fell to 64% (−17pp, 24h), likely reflecting the absence of any qualifying U.S. announcement ending or suspending the Iran naval blockade, with declines echoed in nearer-dated markets.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 30, 2026
US–Iran “next meeting by Sept 30” odds plunge into deadline as no official signals emerge
Polymarket odds fell 9.7pp to 2.8% in 24h, likely as traders priced the near-expiry window without any US or Iranian government confirmation of a follow‑on senior meeting.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 19, 2026
Xi US-visit odds climb to high-90s on summit analysis and UNGA travel signals
Traders pushed the contract higher, likely on fresh analysis pointing to a late‑September Trump–Xi meeting and official notices underscoring UNGA-linked leader travel to the US.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 22, 2026
‘Trump × Greenland deal by Sep 23’ surges to 97% on Greenland govt signal and Reuters base report
Price jumped 12pp to 96.9% in 24h, likely on an official Greenland statement about an expected Arctic security agreement and reporting that the U.S. plans two new bases in Greenland.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 20, 2026
‘Trump x Greenland deal by Sep 23’ surges on Trump’s claim and official Arctic security signals
Price jumped 19.5pp to 75% in 24h, likely on Trump’s announcement of a U.S.–Denmark Greenland deal and Greenland/Danish government notices pointing to an expected Arctic security agreement.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 3, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade plunge on State Dept vow to keep straits open; fresh clashes cited
Polymarket odds that the US will announce an end to its Iran naval blockade by Sep 21 fell sharply, likely on Sept 1 State Dept remarks affirming continued operations and AP reports of renewed attacks.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 16, 2026
Israel–Lebanon meeting odds spike to 98% on late-stage repricing of qualifying criteria
Polymarket odds jumped to 98% in the last day, likely reflecting late-stage repricing around the contract’s allowance for indirect in-person diplomacy as the Sept 18, 2026 deadline approaches.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 2, 2026
Odds of US announcing end of Iranian blockade by Sept 14 plunge on renewed hostilities
Polymarket pricing fell sharply for a US announcement ending its Iran naval blockade, likely on reports of fresh US strikes in Iran and no qualifying US de-escalation signals.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 24, 2026
Iran blockade-end odds jump to 19% amid cross-market repricing; no new US Iran policy signal identified
Polymarket’s “US announces end of Iranian blockade by Sep 14, 2026” rose 6.5pp to 19% in 24h, a move that appears driven by alignment with sister markets and fresh flows rather than any new US announcement on Iran.
Polymarket Analysis • Sep 13, 2026
Iran–Oman Hormuz pact odds jump ahead of Sep 14 deadline; late-stage repricing under Iran-focused diplomacy
Odds for a public Iran–Oman agreement on Strait of Hormuz traffic rose sharply into the Sep 14 cutoff, likely on deadline-driven repricing and Iran-related IAEA diplomacy.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 25, 2026
Odds of a US-announced end to the Iran blockade by Sept 7 drop to 6% after fresh sanctions push
Contracts fell 6pp to 6% over 24h, likely on NPR-reported US sanctions escalation against Iran (Aug 24) and no offsetting official signals of a blockade suspension.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 21, 2026
NATO–Russia clash odds spike to 7.5% on extreme 24h repricing alongside fresh NATO activity notices
The market rose about 4.9pp over 24h to 7.5%, likely reflecting repricing alongside new NATO exercise announcements and EU support updates published on Aug 19–20.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 17, 2026
Odds of US announcing end to Iran blockade fall sharply as Aug 31 deadline nears and no qualifying signal appears
The market dropped 4.5pp to 16% on the day and 28.5pp over a week, likely reflecting time-decay into the Aug 31 window with no official US announcement ending the blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 16, 2026
Iran–Oman Hormuz agreement odds rebound to 37% after a 47pp weekly slide amid security incidents and official censure
Pricing recovered 3pp in 24h to 37% but is down 47pp over 7d, likely reflecting fresh Hormuz incident reports and mid‑August government statements critical of Iran, with no qualifying deal announcements evident.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 11, 2026
Odds of U.S. declaring end to Iran blockade fall sharply; Iran’s Aug 10 stance and lack of U.S. policy signals weigh
The market fell 11.5 pp to 32% over 24h, likely reflecting Iran’s Aug 10 hardline position on Hormuz and the absence of any U.S. announcement ending the blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 8, 2026
Odds jump for US announcing end of Iran blockade by Aug 31; move tracks AP report and timeline shift
Probability rose 9.5 pp to 78%, likely on fresh reporting about potential Iran deal mechanics and a trader shift toward a mid/late‑August announcement window.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 6, 2026
Odds of Iran imposing Hormuz transit fees drop sharply on talk of reopening deal; extreme downward repricing
The market fell 11pp to 10% in 24h, likely on AP-reported comments about a possible deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allied posture signals, prompting an extreme de-escalation repricing.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 4, 2026
Odds of US ending Iranian blockade by Aug 31 drop 6pp as official signals stress talks, not suspension
Polymarket odds fell to 57% (-6pp, 24h) after U.S. statements flagged talks with Iran but offered no commitment to lift or suspend the blockade, prompting a near-term repricing.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 31, 2026
US–Iran ‘final deal’ odds fall sharply; conflict headlines and no official progress
Odds for a US–Iran final nuclear deal by Aug 31, 2026 fell 2.2pp to 3.3% over 24h, likely on reports of widening Iran-linked conflict and the absence of new official steps toward a signed or formally adopted agreement.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 26, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds drop sharply; de-escalation signals and benign supply readout weigh on risk
Odds that Israel will order a major airspace closure fell 9.5 pp to 36% over 24h, likely reflecting reports of no new U.S. strikes on Iran and an EU assessment of no immediate oil-supply concerns.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 17, 2026
Bab el-Mandeb closure-by-Aug odds jump on Yemen escalation headlines; extreme 24h spike
Polymarket odds for a PortWatch-defined Bab el‑Mandeb “effective closure” rose 7.5 pp to 19% in 24h, likely on AP reports of Houthi escalation and intensifying Hormuz fighting, alongside official emphasis on chokepoint risks.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 28, 2026
US–Iran halt odds surge to 95% on reported attack pause and mediator progress
Polymarket odds for a US announcement halting offensive operations against Iran jumped ~54 points to 95.6%, likely on reports of a US–Iran pause in attacks and mediator-led de‑escalation talks.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 19, 2026
Kostyantynivka capture odds spike to 98.8% on deadline-driven repricing and cross-market alignment
Odds that Russia captures Kostyantynivka by Aug 31 surged 73pp to 98.8% in 24h, likely a deadline-driven repricing reinforced by parallel jumps in adjacent Kostyantynivka markets.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 12, 2026
Odds of a US announcement ending Iran blockade tick up; AP sanctions pivot cited while oil strength caps rebound
The market rose 4pp to 14% over 24h, likely on AP reporting of an Aug 11 US pivot back to Iran sanctions, but a steep 7d slide persists amid no official US signal and elevated oil prices.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 9, 2026
US end‑of‑Iran‑blockade odds plunge 30pp on no US announcement as Aug 15 deadline nears
Polymarket contract fell 30pp to 34% in 24h, apparently on the absence of any qualifying US government statement ending the Iran naval blockade as the Aug 15 window approaches.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 5, 2026
‘End of Iranian blockade by Aug 15?’ jumps to 63% on AP report of Iran–Oman strait talks
The market rose 21.5pp to 63% in 24h, likely on an AP report that Iran and Oman made progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting odds of a U.S. announcement ending the blockade.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 3, 2026
Odds surge for US to announce end of Iranian blockade, driven by Aug 2 de-escalation signals
Price jumped 29.5pp to 47% in 24h, likely on Aug 2 remarks about pausing Iran strikes and State Department comments about a potential “deal on the straits.”
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 2, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds rise to 27% amid Iran strike rhetoric and official security statements
Odds that Israel will close its airspace by Aug 15 rose to 27% (+2.5pp/24h), likely on heightened regional security signals including Iran-related rhetoric and government statements on Israel-Palestine.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 13, 2026
Polymarket: Odds of US announcing end of Iranian blockade plunge as deadline nears; no US signal, IEA highlights Hormuz constraints
Probability fell 7.5pp to 3% as the Aug 14 deadline approaches without a qualifying US announcement, while an IEA note underscored that a Hormuz reopening remains elusive.
Polymarket Analysis • Aug 7, 2026
Odds of US announcing end of Iranian blockade by Aug 7 plunge on no official signal and hostile Iranian proposal
The Aug 7 contract fell 21.1pp to 15.5% as the deadline approached without a qualifying US announcement; Iranian hardline moves and lack of de‑escalatory signals likely weighed.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 29, 2026
Odds of US ending Iran blockade plunge; fresh hostilities and no qualifying US signal cited
Polymarket probability fell 7.5pp to 7%, likely on AP-reported Iranian missile attack against US forces and the absence of any official US move to end the blockade as the July 31 deadline nears.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 24, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds surge to 35% on extreme weekly repricing amid Iran-war headlines and EU policy signals
Polymarket odds that Israel closes its airspace by July 31 jumped 6.5pp to 35%, likely reflecting concentrated Iran-war news and a flurry of European government statements on Israel this week.
Polymarket Analysis • Jul 23, 2026
Israel airspace-closure odds jump to 27% on fresh Iran–Israel escalation reports
The market rose 6.5pp to 27% in 24h, likely reacting to AP reports on July 22 of Iranian strikes near Israel and new U.S. strikes, which raised perceived closure risk.