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Showing 18 results for “Geopolitics”
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 4, 2026
Polymarket odds for 'US forces enter Iran by Apr 30' surge to 85% on US war statements and downed jet report
Contract repriced sharply higher, likely on official U.S. briefings about ongoing operations in Iran and news a U.S. jet went down over Iran, tightening the window to April 30.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 31, 2026
Odds of crude hitting $100 by March surge to near-certainty as WTI trades above $106; Iran risk and EU signals in focus
Polymarket’s “CL ≥$100 by end of March” probability jumped 14pp to 99.9%, likely on front‑month WTI trading above $106 and escalating Iran-related tensions flagged by EU lawmakers.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire (by Apr 15) drops 8.5pp as positions harden; UK UNHRC statements underscore tensions
The Apr 15 US–Iran ceasefire market fell to 29% (−8.5pp, 24h), likely on reports of firmer stances and Hormuz friction, alongside UK statements at the UNHRC condemning Iranian aggression.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
Odds of WTI $100-by-March rebound to 42% on Iran–Hormuz risk and official UK/EU signals
Yes-probability jumped ~18pp in 24h to 42.3%, likely on renewed supply-risk pricing tied to Iran–Strait of Hormuz tensions and UK/EU statements underscoring Gulf escalation.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
Odds of a US–Iran ceasefire by March 31 fall to 13% amid hardened stances and Hormuz tensions
Polymarket’s probability for a US–Iran ceasefire by March 31 dropped 7pp to 13%, likely reflecting reports of hardened positions, ongoing regional strikes, and Strait of Hormuz pressure.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 25, 2026
Israel–Lebanon ground offensive odds surge to 99.9% amid Iran war signals and Beirut’s Iran envoy expulsion
Over the past week, market odds jumped 25 points to 99.9%, likely reflecting traders pricing in near‑term action as Israel’s war with Iran continues and Lebanon expels Iran’s ambassador.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 24, 2026
Odds that CME Crude (CL) settles at $100 by Mar 31 plunge on de-escalation headlines and WTI near $89
The market’s probability dropped sharply to 38% as de-escalation talk around the U.S.–Iran conflict eased oil prices, with WTI around $89 reducing the path to a $100 month-end settlement.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 23, 2026
Israel–Lebanon ground offensive odds surge to 98.7% amid late-window repricing and regional escalation signals
The market’s probability for a major Israeli ground offensive in Lebanon by Mar 31, 2026 jumped about 20pp this week to 98.7%, likely reflecting late-window repricing and broader escalation signals.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 23, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 15: probability jumps to 30% amid escalation headlines and external pressure
The US–Iran ceasefire-by-Apr-15 market rose 5.5pp to 30% in 24h, likely reflecting trader positioning after high-profile escalation headlines and signs of international pressure.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 23, 2026
Iranian regime-fall odds drift lower over 7 days amid external-conflict headlines
Pricing for the Iranian regime to fall by June 30, 2026 eased to 24%, down 4.5pp on the week, as traders appeared to refocus on external confrontation news rather than domestic collapse signals.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 22, 2026
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Odds rebound on DoD strike update, conflict persists
The market ticked up ~3.5pp to 21% in 24h—an extreme daily move—likely reacting to official updates on ongoing U.S. operations and reporting that the war shows no near-term end.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 21, 2026
Odds of US forces entering Iran by Dec 31 slip; traders weigh ‘winding down’ signals
The market eased 1.5pp on the day and 4.5pp on the week to 67%, likely reflecting reports the U.S. may “wind down” operations even as strikes on Iran continue.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 21, 2026
Taiwan invasion odds tick down slightly as risk focus shifts to Iran conflict
The market eased 0.2pp to 10.5% in the past 24h, a normal move that appears linked to attention centering on the Iran war and broader risk tone, with no new Taiwan-specific catalysts.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 21, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Mar 31 slides over the week as conflict signals persist
Odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Mar 31 fell 8.5 pp over seven days to 8%, likely reflecting continued hostilities, fresh deployments, and no official signs of talks as the deadline nears.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 20, 2026
Odds of Iranian regime falling by Mar 31 drop sharply as deadline nears amid ongoing war
The market’s probability fell over the past week to 2.3%, an extreme 7‑day downside move, likely reflecting the contract’s imminent March 31 deadline despite continued war headlines.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 20, 2026
Odds of US forces entering Iran by Mar 31 plunge over the week as traders push risk into April
The market fell about 17pp over the past week to 18%, likely reflecting the shrinking March window and cross-market pricing that places higher odds on an April entry.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 20, 2026
Probability of Netanyahu Leaving Office by March 31 Drops Amid Regional Tensions
The market probability that Netanyahu will be out by March 31 declined by 5.8 percentage points over the past week, likely reflecting ongoing regional conflict and political stability signals.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 20, 2026
Probability of Trump-Greenland Deal Signed by December 31 Rises to 60% Amid Renewed US-Denmark Negotiation Signals
The market probability for a US-Denmark Greenland deal by end-2026 increased to 60%, reflecting renewed optimism about formal agreement prospects.