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Showing 18 results for “US Iran”
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 19, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace deal’ odds plunge on Hormuz crisis reports and official warnings
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by Apr 22, 2026 fell 9.5pp to 20%, likely on reports Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and US/EU/UK statements signaling heightened tensions.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 6, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire (by Apr 15) jumps to 12% on US signals operations are “near completion”
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 15 rose 6.5pp to 12% in 24h, apparently reacting to US government statements that objectives in Iran are nearing completion and fresh reports on active operations.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 23, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 15: probability jumps to 30% amid escalation headlines and external pressure
The US–Iran ceasefire-by-Apr-15 market rose 5.5pp to 30% in 24h, likely reflecting trader positioning after high-profile escalation headlines and signs of international pressure.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 20, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire extension odds fall sharply after US blockade action and talks uncertainty
The market sold off 14.5pp to 34% today, likely on a US government announcement enforcing a naval blockade against an Iranian vessel and reporting that ship seizure has cast doubt on near‑term talks.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 17, 2026
US–Iran “permanent peace” odds surge; mediation push and regional ceasefire headlines in focus
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by Apr 30, 2026 rose to 41% (+3.5pp/24h; +21.5pp/7d), likely on reports of active mediation to extend a ceasefire and broader regional de‑escalation signals.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 16, 2026
US–Iran permanent peace odds surge to 59% amid US pivot to economic pressure and regional de-escalation signals
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026 jumped into the high‑50s, likely reflecting US policy emphasis on economic pressure, congressional debate, and rising regional ceasefire pricing.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 15, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace deal’ odds jump on renewed-talks reports; oil and risk gauges ease
Polymarket odds rose to 39% after reports of possible US–Iran talks resuming in Islamabad, with risk assets firmer and oil softer on de‑escalation hopes.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 11, 2026
US–Iran meeting by Apr 10 odds plunge into deadline; later-dated markets surge on ceasefire signals
Price fell ~19pp to 6% into the Apr 10 cutoff, likely on lack of public confirmation of an in‑person US–Iran meeting, while official April 8 ceasefire statements boosted later-dated “meeting” markets.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 8, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 surges to ~99% on cross-market repricing; no matching ceasefire news
The Polymarket contract jumped about 70pp to 99.4%, likely driven by synchronized repricing across related US–Iran ceasefire markets; no public ceasefire agreement has been announced.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 7, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 7 surges to 74% as 8 p.m. ET ultimatum nears; cross-contracts reprice higher
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 7 spiked ~72 pp to 74%, likely on deadline-focused positioning around Trump’s 8 p.m. ET ultimatum and heavy cross-market flows.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 7, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by May 31 odds jump to 47% on US officials signaling objectives near completion
Polymarket odds rose 6.5pp to 47%, likely on US government statements that military objectives in Iran are nearing completion and that messages are being exchanged, alongside fresh deadline-focused headlines.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 3, 2026
US–Iran Apr 30 ceasefire odds plunge after US officials signal operations continue
Polymarket odds of a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 fell 15.5pp to 23%, likely on April 1–2 US government statements stressing ongoing operations and no immediate truce.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 29, 2026
Polymarket ‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ surges; official G7 and US/UK defense signals lift perceived risk
Pricing for ‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ moved sharply higher, likely on coordinated G7 messaging on Iran and fresh US/UK operational updates indicating sustained regional hostilities.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 27, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 slips ~5pp; Hormuz transit move and official statements point away from de-escalation
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 fell 4.5pp to 45%, likely on reports of Iran tightening Strait of Hormuz transit rules and government statements focused on conflict rather than ceasefire.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire (by Apr 15) drops 8.5pp as positions harden; UK UNHRC statements underscore tensions
The Apr 15 US–Iran ceasefire market fell to 29% (−8.5pp, 24h), likely on reports of firmer stances and Hormuz friction, alongside UK statements at the UNHRC condemning Iranian aggression.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
Odds of a US–Iran ceasefire by March 31 fall to 13% amid hardened stances and Hormuz tensions
Polymarket’s probability for a US–Iran ceasefire by March 31 dropped 7pp to 13%, likely reflecting reports of hardened positions, ongoing regional strikes, and Strait of Hormuz pressure.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 21, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Mar 31 slides over the week as conflict signals persist
Odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Mar 31 fell 8.5 pp over seven days to 8%, likely reflecting continued hostilities, fresh deployments, and no official signs of talks as the deadline nears.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 21, 2026
US–Iran meeting (by Apr 22, 2026) ticks higher; timing shift from Apr 21 variant amid US blockade news
The market rose 3pp to 69% over 24h, likely reflecting a one‑day timing shift from the April 21 twin contract, despite a US government blockade action and media signals questioning near‑term talks.