Middle East
24 articles · 24 recent · 2 source types
Odds of a US–Iran inperson diplomatic meeting by Apr 30 fell 31pp to 57%, after reported failed talks in Pakistan and heightened maritime security moves.
US–Iran meetingbyApr23 odds plunge 63pp to 15% as deadline nears, with US blockade enforcement and ceasefire reports reducing nearterm meeting prospects.
US–Iran meeting (by Apr 22) odds rose to 69%, likely a timing shift from the Apr 21 twin market, despite a US blockade action and media doubts.
US–Iran meeting odds jumped to 49% on reports of last‐ditch engagement and official signals as the April 21 deadline nears. Move looks event‐driven.
US–Iran ‘permanent peace deal’ odds fell 9.5pp to 20% after Hormuz crisis reports and firm US/EU/UK statements signaled heightened tensions.
US–Iran permanent peace odds jumped to 41% on mediation and regional ceasefire headlines, with mixed policy signals and extreme zscores indicating a sharp rep...
US–Iran peace odds jumped to 59% on extreme repricing, amid US policy signals favoring economic pressure and stronger regional ceasefire bets.
Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire odds surged on news of Israel–Lebanon talks and coordinated government statements. Extreme 24h move; confirmation hinges on formal t...
US–Iran peacedeal odds jumped to 39% on renewedtalks reports, with oil easing and risk assets firmer. Move looks headlinedriven ahead of April 30 expiry.
Odds of an Israeli strike on Iranian soil by Apr 21 fell 29pp to 22%, tracking U.S. Hormuz mine‐clearing and ceasefire signals. Move is an extreme 24h repricin...
US–Iran meeting by Apr 10 odds fell 19pp to 6% into the deadline, as no public meeting was confirmed; laterdated markets rallied on April 8 ceasefire signals.
Odds of crude hitting $100 by March jumped to 99.9% as WTI trades above $106, amid Iranrelated tensions and EU attention to energy cost spillovers.
Polymarket odds of US forces entering Iran by Apr 30 surged to 71% on G7 statements and a U.S. operational update, an extreme move with high volume.
Market probability for Iranian regime collapse by June 30, 2026, declines amid rising regional conflict and military actions.
Crude oil market probability of hitting $120 by March end falls amid Middle East tensions and recent price declines, reflecting cautious market sentiment.