Israel

The EU urged Israel to withdraw the E1 settlement tender, saying the plan threatens the twostate framework and worsens West Bank tensions.

The State Department sanctioned 9 Cubanlinked entities and 3 individuals, extending an August campaign targeting Havana’s military and economic networks.

Polymarket odds for an Israel–Lebanon diplomatic meeting surged to 98%, likely a criteriadriven spike near the Sept 18, 2026 deadline.

The European Commission approved Italian regional aid for farm, fishing and aquaculture firms facing fuel and fertiliser cost pressures.

France linked a Russian missile breach of Polish airspace to wider European security risks and reaffirmed support for NATO defence posture.

Brussels summit advanced Moldova’s EU path, with the European Commission detailing €504m in support plus security and border funding on 22 June 2026.

Eizenkot PM odds jumped on Polymarket amid UK–Canada–France settlement measures and UK policy statements; extreme 24h/7d zscores signal a sharp re‐rating.

UK and Ghana unveiled a 20262028 Growth Partnership with £215 million in investment for jobs, trade, infrastructure, skills and reforestation, HM Government said.

Netanyahu ‘Next PM’ odds rose to 32% (+7pp, 24h) on Polymarket, aligning with UK diplomatic signals and AP reporting on Gaza coordination tensions.

Odds Venezuela recognizes Israel by Dec 31, 2026 plunged 45pp to 12%, following fresh Mideast security signals and UK/EP statements; extreme 24h move.

Odds of an Israeli airspace closure fell 9.5 pp to 36%, amid reports of no new U.S. strikes on Iran and an EU signal of no immediate oilsupply concerns.

Odds of a Trump–Netanyahu meeting by July 31 surge to 90%, likely on White House scheduling signals and U.S. strikes on Iran focusing nearterm diplomacy.

Polymarket odds of an Israel airspace closure by July 31 surged to 35% amid Iranwar headlines and European government statements, an extreme weekly repricing.

Odds of Israel closing its airspace by July 31 jumped to 27%, likely on reports of Iran–US strikes near Israel and sustained official focus on regional risks.

Odds of Israel closing its airspace by July 31 fell to 20%, likely on timewindow compression and lack of official closure signals, with related markets also d...

Eizenkot’s odds for next Israeli PM jumped to 52% with extreme zscores, driven by rotation from Netanyahu contracts and strong onexchange flow.

LebanontorecognizeIsrael odds plunged 15 pp as the June 30 cutoff nears with no official act evident; official statements focused elsewhere.

Lebanon recognizing Israel by June 30 odds fell 49pp to 20.8%, amid border escalation and a looming deadline requiring formal recognition.

Israel–Syria security deal odds rose 2.5pp to 12% but remain lower w/w. Mixed signals and firmer oil keep expectations subdued.