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Showing 9 results for “Strait of Hormuz”
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 21, 2026
Strait of Hormuz normalization odds slump on US blockade enforcement and ceasefire uncertainty
Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April fell 12.5pp to 17%, likely on a US announcement of blockade enforcement and reports that a US–Iran ceasefire extension faces obstacles.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 12, 2026
Strait of Hormuz ‘normal traffic by Apr 30’ odds jump; de-escalation signals and EU energy coordination cited
The market’s Yes probability rose 11.5pp to 33% in 24h, likely on de-escalation signals, EU oil/gas coordination, and softer energy-risk pricing, despite mine-clearance uncertainty.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 9, 2026
Hormuz “normal traffic” odds plunge as shippers stay cautious despite ceasefire and policy noise
The market fell 35pp to 27%, likely on reports of continued carrier caution and new policy uncertainty (Iran tolls), despite official ceasefire signals and facilitation plans.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 18, 2026
Hormuz “normal traffic by Apr 30” odds surge on Iran’s ‘open’ declaration and UK/EU pressure
Yes-probability jumped after Iran said the Strait is “completely open” during a ceasefire, and UK/EU statements pressed for restoring safe commercial passage.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 27, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 slips ~5pp; Hormuz transit move and official statements point away from de-escalation
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 fell 4.5pp to 45%, likely on reports of Iran tightening Strait of Hormuz transit rules and government statements focused on conflict rather than ceasefire.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 28, 2026
Odds of oil settling ≥$100 by March 31 spike on WTI >$100 and EU warnings on Hormuz risk
Polymarket odds jumped 44pp to 76% after WTI printed above $100 and EU parliamentary queries flagged Strait of Hormuz disruption and war-risk insurance concerns.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
Odds of a US–Iran ceasefire by March 31 fall to 13% amid hardened stances and Hormuz tensions
Polymarket’s probability for a US–Iran ceasefire by March 31 dropped 7pp to 13%, likely reflecting reports of hardened positions, ongoing regional strikes, and Strait of Hormuz pressure.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
Odds of WTI $100-by-March rebound to 42% on Iran–Hormuz risk and official UK/EU signals
Yes-probability jumped ~18pp in 24h to 42.3%, likely on renewed supply-risk pricing tied to Iran–Strait of Hormuz tensions and UK/EU statements underscoring Gulf escalation.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 19, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace deal’ odds plunge on Hormuz crisis reports and official warnings
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by Apr 22, 2026 fell 9.5pp to 20%, likely on reports Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and US/EU/UK statements signaling heightened tensions.