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Showing 18 results for “Iran”
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 7, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by May 31 odds jump to 47% on US officials signaling objectives near completion
Polymarket odds rose 6.5pp to 47%, likely on US government statements that military objectives in Iran are nearing completion and that messages are being exchanged, alongside fresh deadline-focused headlines.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 6, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire (by Apr 15) jumps to 12% on US signals operations are “near completion”
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 15 rose 6.5pp to 12% in 24h, apparently reacting to US government statements that objectives in Iran are nearing completion and fresh reports on active operations.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 5, 2026
‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31?’ jumps to 94% on official US war updates and reports of downed jet over Iran
Probability rose 27.5pp over 7 days to 94%, likely on U.S. government statements of ongoing operations in Iran and reporting on a downed U.S. aircraft and missing aircrew on Iranian soil.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 4, 2026
Polymarket odds for 'US forces enter Iran by Apr 30' surge to 85% on US war statements and downed jet report
Contract repriced sharply higher, likely on official U.S. briefings about ongoing operations in Iran and news a U.S. jet went down over Iran, tightening the window to April 30.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 3, 2026
US–Iran Apr 30 ceasefire odds plunge after US officials signal operations continue
Polymarket odds of a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 fell 15.5pp to 23%, likely on April 1–2 US government statements stressing ongoing operations and no immediate truce.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 29, 2026
Polymarket ‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ surges; official G7 and US/UK defense signals lift perceived risk
Pricing for ‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ moved sharply higher, likely on coordinated G7 messaging on Iran and fresh US/UK operational updates indicating sustained regional hostilities.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 29, 2026
Odds of US forces entering Iran by Mar 31 drop sharply as G7 signals restraint, no ground-entry indications
Polymarket pricing fell 6pp to 11% over 24h, likely on G7 statements emphasizing minimizing escalation and the absence of evidence that U.S. troops will cross into Iran before the Mar 31 deadline.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 27, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 slips ~5pp; Hormuz transit move and official statements point away from de-escalation
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 fell 4.5pp to 45%, likely on reports of Iran tightening Strait of Hormuz transit rules and government statements focused on conflict rather than ceasefire.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire (by Apr 15) drops 8.5pp as positions harden; UK UNHRC statements underscore tensions
The Apr 15 US–Iran ceasefire market fell to 29% (−8.5pp, 24h), likely on reports of firmer stances and Hormuz friction, alongside UK statements at the UNHRC condemning Iranian aggression.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
Odds of a US–Iran ceasefire by March 31 fall to 13% amid hardened stances and Hormuz tensions
Polymarket’s probability for a US–Iran ceasefire by March 31 dropped 7pp to 13%, likely reflecting reports of hardened positions, ongoing regional strikes, and Strait of Hormuz pressure.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 23, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 15: probability jumps to 30% amid escalation headlines and external pressure
The US–Iran ceasefire-by-Apr-15 market rose 5.5pp to 30% in 24h, likely reflecting trader positioning after high-profile escalation headlines and signs of international pressure.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 23, 2026
Iranian regime-fall odds drift lower over 7 days amid external-conflict headlines
Pricing for the Iranian regime to fall by June 30, 2026 eased to 24%, down 4.5pp on the week, as traders appeared to refocus on external confrontation news rather than domestic collapse signals.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 21, 2026
Odds of US forces entering Iran by Dec 31 slip; traders weigh ‘winding down’ signals
The market eased 1.5pp on the day and 4.5pp on the week to 67%, likely reflecting reports the U.S. may “wind down” operations even as strikes on Iran continue.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 21, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by Mar 31 slides over the week as conflict signals persist
Odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Mar 31 fell 8.5 pp over seven days to 8%, likely reflecting continued hostilities, fresh deployments, and no official signs of talks as the deadline nears.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 20, 2026
Probability of Iranian Regime Falling by June 30, 2026, Declines Amid Rising Regional Conflict
The market probability for the Iranian regime falling by June 30, 2026, decreased by 1.5 percentage points over 24 hours, likely reflecting escalating military tensions and ongoing conflict in the region.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 2, 2026
Polymarket: ‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ dips; de‑escalation signals and official timelines weigh
The market slid ~1.5pp to 65% over 24h, likely reflecting U.S. government messaging that objectives are near and “weeks, not months” from completion, plus de‑escalation cues flagged by AP.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 1, 2026
“US forces enter Iran by Apr 30?” drops 12pp; defensive US moves and EU oil-security focus cool near-term incursion odds
The market fell to 58% (−12pp, 24h), likely as traders digested AP reporting that fresh U.S. deployments are framed as deterrent and an EU Commission call prioritized energy security over escalation.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 30, 2026
Polymarket: ‘US forces enter Iran by April 30?’ surges to 71% on official conflict updates and G7 focus
The contract jumped to 71%, likely on coordinated G7 statements, a U.S. operational update, and UK reporting of active air-defense actions, all pointing to elevated near-term conflict risk.