Iran

UK urged tighter UN–Arab League coordination and cited efforts to secure navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside G7 backing and new Franco-Korean maritime cooperation.

UK told the UN Security Council it would champion UN–Arab League coordination to address Iran-linked tensions and protect Strait of Hormuz stability.

UK renews backing for Ukraine’s cyber defense and self-defense rights; summons Iran’s ambassador over espionage concerns amid ongoing regional tensions.

Tallinn Mechanism members pledged €302.6 million since Dec 2023 to strengthen Ukraine's civilian cyber defence amid ongoing Russian cyber attacks.

U.S. forces have struck thousands of Iranian targets in Operation Epic Fury; UK enhances defence support for Gulf partners amid Iranian threats.

UK condemns Russia's aggression in Ukraine with rising civilian casualties; US highlights unique nature of Iran conflict amid Operation Epic Fury.

UK highlights Iranian missile strikes in Middle East conflict and leads UN call to advance women’s rights amid ongoing regional tensions.

UK addresses Iranian missile threats in Middle East, supports British nationals, and partners with Finland and Netherlands on joint defence procurement by 2027.

UK and Germany progress joint development of long-range precision missiles, reinforcing defence capabilities amid Middle East tensions.

Contract repriced sharply higher, likely on official U.S. briefings about ongoing operations in Iran and news a U.S. jet went down over Iran, tightening the window to April 30.

Probability rose 27.5pp over 7 days to 94%, likely on U.S. government statements of ongoing operations in Iran and reporting on a downed U.S. aircraft and missing aircrew on Iranian soil.

Polymarket odds of a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 fell 15.5pp to 23%, likely on April 1–2 US government statements stressing ongoing operations and no immediate truce.

The market slid ~1.5pp to 65% over 24h, likely reflecting U.S. government messaging that objectives are near and “weeks, not months” from completion, plus de‑escalation cues flagged by AP.

The market fell to 58% (−12pp, 24h), likely as traders digested AP reporting that fresh U.S. deployments are framed as deterrent and an EU Commission call prioritized energy security over escalation.

The contract jumped to 71%, likely on coordinated G7 statements, a U.S. operational update, and UK reporting of active air-defense actions, all pointing to elevated near-term conflict risk.

Pricing for ‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ moved sharply higher, likely on coordinated G7 messaging on Iran and fresh US/UK operational updates indicating sustained regional hostilities.

The Apr 15 US–Iran ceasefire market fell to 29% (−8.5pp, 24h), likely on reports of firmer stances and Hormuz friction, alongside UK statements at the UNHRC condemning Iranian aggression.

Polymarket’s probability for a US–Iran ceasefire by March 31 dropped 7pp to 13%, likely reflecting reports of hardened positions, ongoing regional strikes, and Strait of Hormuz pressure.