Ceasefire

Polymarket odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 15 rose 6.5pp to 12% in 24h, apparently reacting to US government statements that objectives in Iran are nearing completion and fresh reports on active operations.

Polymarket odds of a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 fell 15.5pp to 23%, likely on April 1–2 US government statements stressing ongoing operations and no immediate truce.

Polymarket odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 fell 4.5pp to 45%, likely on reports of Iran tightening Strait of Hormuz transit rules and government statements focused on conflict rather than ceasefire.

Odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Mar 31 fell 8.5 pp over seven days to 8%, likely reflecting continued hostilities, fresh deployments, and no official signs of talks as the deadline nears.

The Apr 15 US–Iran ceasefire market fell to 29% (−8.5pp, 24h), likely on reports of firmer stances and Hormuz friction, alongside UK statements at the UNHRC condemning Iranian aggression.

Polymarket’s probability for a US–Iran ceasefire by March 31 dropped 7pp to 13%, likely reflecting reports of hardened positions, ongoing regional strikes, and Strait of Hormuz pressure.

The US–Iran ceasefire-by-Apr-15 market rose 5.5pp to 30% in 24h, likely reflecting trader positioning after high-profile escalation headlines and signs of international pressure.