Polymarket Analysis

Contract repriced sharply higher, likely on official U.S. briefings about ongoing operations in Iran and news a U.S. jet went down over Iran, tightening the window to April 30.

Probability rose 27.5pp over 7 days to 94%, likely on U.S. government statements of ongoing operations in Iran and reporting on a downed U.S. aircraft and missing aircrew on Iranian soil.

Polymarket odds of a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 fell 15.5pp to 23%, likely on April 1–2 US government statements stressing ongoing operations and no immediate truce.

The market slid ~1.5pp to 65% over 24h, likely reflecting U.S. government messaging that objectives are near and “weeks, not months” from completion, plus de‑escalation cues flagged by AP.

The market fell to 58% (−12pp, 24h), likely as traders digested AP reporting that fresh U.S. deployments are framed as deterrent and an EU Commission call prioritized energy security over escalation.

The contract jumped to 71%, likely on coordinated G7 statements, a U.S. operational update, and UK reporting of active air-defense actions, all pointing to elevated near-term conflict risk.

Pricing for ‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ moved sharply higher, likely on coordinated G7 messaging on Iran and fresh US/UK operational updates indicating sustained regional hostilities.

The Apr 15 US–Iran ceasefire market fell to 29% (−8.5pp, 24h), likely on reports of firmer stances and Hormuz friction, alongside UK statements at the UNHRC condemning Iranian aggression.

Polymarket’s probability for a US–Iran ceasefire by March 31 dropped 7pp to 13%, likely reflecting reports of hardened positions, ongoing regional strikes, and Strait of Hormuz pressure.