Prediction Markets

An analytical exploration of the reliability of prediction market data for geopolitical analysis, discussing its advantages, limitations, and integration into structured frameworks.

Explore GPS Daily Briefs and Weekly Summaries for structured insights into global developments, focusing on key themes in technology, defence, politics, and environment.

An analytical exploration of the financial theory behind prediction markets and their role in forecasting future events.

A comprehensive guide to understanding Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, its operations, founders, regulatory context, and user experience.

Explore effective trading strategies in Polymarket categorized into fundamental, technical, and quantitative approaches.

Explore how Polymarket is transforming the betting industry with its innovative prediction market platform.

Polymarket odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 15 rose 6.5pp to 12% in 24h, apparently reacting to US government statements that objectives in Iran are nearing completion and fresh reports on active operations.

Polymarket odds of a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 fell 15.5pp to 23%, likely on April 1–2 US government statements stressing ongoing operations and no immediate truce.

The market slid ~1.5pp to 65% over 24h, likely reflecting U.S. government messaging that objectives are near and “weeks, not months” from completion, plus de‑escalation cues flagged by AP.

The market fell to 58% (−12pp, 24h), likely as traders digested AP reporting that fresh U.S. deployments are framed as deterrent and an EU Commission call prioritized energy security over escalation.

The contract jumped to 71%, likely on coordinated G7 statements, a U.S. operational update, and UK reporting of active air-defense actions, all pointing to elevated near-term conflict risk.

Polymarket odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 fell 4.5pp to 45%, likely on reports of Iran tightening Strait of Hormuz transit rules and government statements focused on conflict rather than ceasefire.

Over the past week, market odds jumped 25 points to 99.9%, likely reflecting traders pricing in near‑term action as Israel’s war with Iran continues and Lebanon expels Iran’s ambassador.

Implied odds rose 4.5pp to 20% in 24h, likely on fresh Pentagon deployment headlines and end‑March timing, even as the 7‑day trend remains lower.

Pricing for the Iranian regime to fall by June 30, 2026 eased to 24%, down 4.5pp on the week, as traders appeared to refocus on external confrontation news rather than domestic collapse signals.