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Probability rose 27.5pp over 7 days to 94%, likely on U.S. government statements of ongoing operations in Iran and reporting on a downed U.S. aircraft and missing aircrew on Iranian soil.
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Probability rose 27.5pp over 7 days to 94%, likely on U.S. government statements of ongoing operations in Iran and reporting on a downed U.S. aircraft and missing aircrew on Iranian soil.
Open Energy articlePolymarket odds jumped 44pp to 76% after WTI printed above $100 and EU parliamentary queries flagged Strait of Hormuz disruption and war-risk insurance concerns.
Open Energy articleThe market fell 7.5pp to 13%, likely reflecting reports of sustained U.S. strike tempo and fresh troop deployments that cut the odds of an imminent “end of operations” announcement.
Open Energy articleThe US–Iran ceasefire-by-Apr-15 market rose 5.5pp to 30% in 24h, likely reflecting trader positioning after high-profile escalation headlines and signs of international pressure.
Open Energy articleYes-probability jumped ~18pp in 24h to 42.3%, likely on renewed supply-risk pricing tied to Iran–Strait of Hormuz tensions and UK/EU statements underscoring Gulf escalation.
Open Energy articleThe market’s probability dropped sharply to 38% as de-escalation talk around the U.S.–Iran conflict eased oil prices, with WTI around $89 reducing the path to a $100 month-end settlement.
Open Energy article