Military

Contract repriced sharply higher, likely on official U.S. briefings about ongoing operations in Iran and news a U.S. jet went down over Iran, tightening the window to April 30.

Probability rose 27.5pp over 7 days to 94%, likely on U.S. government statements of ongoing operations in Iran and reporting on a downed U.S. aircraft and missing aircrew on Iranian soil.

The market slid ~1.5pp to 65% over 24h, likely reflecting U.S. government messaging that objectives are near and “weeks, not months” from completion, plus de‑escalation cues flagged by AP.

Polymarket pricing fell 6pp to 11% over 24h, likely on G7 statements emphasizing minimizing escalation and the absence of evidence that U.S. troops will cross into Iran before the Mar 31 deadline.

The market fell 7.5pp to 13%, likely reflecting reports of sustained U.S. strike tempo and fresh troop deployments that cut the odds of an imminent “end of operations” announcement.

Implied odds rose 4.5pp to 20% in 24h, likely on fresh Pentagon deployment headlines and end‑March timing, even as the 7‑day trend remains lower.