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Odds of crude hitting $100 by March surge to near-certainty as WTI trades above $106; Iran risk and EU signals in focus
Polymarket Briefs · Mar 31, 2026

Polymarket’s “CL ≥$100 by end of March” probability jumped 14pp to 99.9%, likely on front‑month WTI trading above $106 and escalating Iran-related tensions flagged by EU lawmakers.

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Polymarket Briefs

Polymarket Briefs · Mar 31, 2026
Odds of crude hitting $100 by March surge to near-certainty as WTI trades above $106; Iran risk and EU signals in focus

Polymarket’s “CL ≥$100 by end of March” probability jumped 14pp to 99.9%, likely on front‑month WTI trading above $106 and escalating Iran-related tensions flagged by EU lawmakers.

Open Oil article
Polymarket Briefs · Apr 1, 2026
“US forces enter Iran by Apr 30?” drops 12pp; defensive US moves and EU oil-security focus cool near-term incursion odds

The market fell to 58% (−12pp, 24h), likely as traders digested AP reporting that fresh U.S. deployments are framed as deterrent and an EU Commission call prioritized energy security over escalation.

Open Oil article
Polymarket Briefs · Mar 26, 2026
Odds of WTI $100-by-March rebound to 42% on Iran–Hormuz risk and official UK/EU signals

Yes-probability jumped ~18pp in 24h to 42.3%, likely on renewed supply-risk pricing tied to Iran–Strait of Hormuz tensions and UK/EU statements underscoring Gulf escalation.

Open Oil article
Polymarket Briefs · Mar 28, 2026
Odds of oil settling ≥$100 by March 31 spike on WTI >$100 and EU warnings on Hormuz risk

Polymarket odds jumped 44pp to 76% after WTI printed above $100 and EU parliamentary queries flagged Strait of Hormuz disruption and war-risk insurance concerns.

Open Oil article
Polymarket Briefs · Mar 24, 2026
Odds that CME Crude (CL) settles at $100 by Mar 31 plunge on de-escalation headlines and WTI near $89

The market’s probability dropped sharply to 38% as de-escalation talk around the U.S.–Iran conflict eased oil prices, with WTI around $89 reducing the path to a $100 month-end settlement.

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