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Showing 11 results for “Military”
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 26, 2026
Odds Trump announces end of Iran operations by Mar 31 drop sharply amid signs of continued campaign and new troop deployments
The market fell 7.5pp to 13%, likely reflecting reports of sustained U.S. strike tempo and fresh troop deployments that cut the odds of an imminent “end of operations” announcement.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 20, 2026
Probability of Iranian Regime Falling by June 30, 2026, Declines Amid Rising Regional Conflict
The market probability for the Iranian regime falling by June 30, 2026, decreased by 1.5 percentage points over 24 hours, likely reflecting escalating military tensions and ongoing conflict in the region.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 7, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire by May 31 odds jump to 47% on US officials signaling objectives near completion
Polymarket odds rose 6.5pp to 47%, likely on US government statements that military objectives in Iran are nearing completion and that messages are being exchanged, alongside fresh deadline-focused headlines.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 5, 2026
‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31?’ jumps to 94% on official US war updates and reports of downed jet over Iran
Probability rose 27.5pp over 7 days to 94%, likely on U.S. government statements of ongoing operations in Iran and reporting on a downed U.S. aircraft and missing aircrew on Iranian soil.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 4, 2026
Polymarket odds for 'US forces enter Iran by Apr 30' surge to 85% on US war statements and downed jet report
Contract repriced sharply higher, likely on official U.S. briefings about ongoing operations in Iran and news a U.S. jet went down over Iran, tightening the window to April 30.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 2, 2026
Polymarket: ‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ dips; de‑escalation signals and official timelines weigh
The market slid ~1.5pp to 65% over 24h, likely reflecting U.S. government messaging that objectives are near and “weeks, not months” from completion, plus de‑escalation cues flagged by AP.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 29, 2026
Odds of US forces entering Iran by Mar 31 drop sharply as G7 signals restraint, no ground-entry indications
Polymarket pricing fell 6pp to 11% over 24h, likely on G7 statements emphasizing minimizing escalation and the absence of evidence that U.S. troops will cross into Iran before the Mar 31 deadline.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 25, 2026
‘US forces enter Iran by Mar 31’ odds rebound; sharp daily uptick on deployment signals as deadline nears
Implied odds rose 4.5pp to 20% in 24h, likely on fresh Pentagon deployment headlines and end‑March timing, even as the 7‑day trend remains lower.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 22, 2026
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Odds rebound on DoD strike update, conflict persists
The market ticked up ~3.5pp to 21% in 24h—an extreme daily move—likely reacting to official updates on ongoing U.S. operations and reporting that the war shows no near-term end.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 21, 2026
Odds of US forces entering Iran by Dec 31 slip; traders weigh ‘winding down’ signals
The market eased 1.5pp on the day and 4.5pp on the week to 67%, likely reflecting reports the U.S. may “wind down” operations even as strikes on Iran continue.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 20, 2026
Odds of US forces entering Iran by Mar 31 plunge over the week as traders push risk into April
The market fell about 17pp over the past week to 18%, likely reflecting the shrinking March window and cross-market pricing that places higher odds on an April entry.