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Showing 6 results for “Diplomacy”
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 17, 2026
US–Iran “permanent peace” odds surge; mediation push and regional ceasefire headlines in focus
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by Apr 30, 2026 rose to 41% (+3.5pp/24h; +21.5pp/7d), likely on reports of active mediation to extend a ceasefire and broader regional de‑escalation signals.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 16, 2026
US–Iran permanent peace odds surge to 59% amid US pivot to economic pressure and regional de-escalation signals
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026 jumped into the high‑50s, likely reflecting US policy emphasis on economic pressure, congressional debate, and rising regional ceasefire pricing.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 16, 2026
Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire odds jump on new Israel–Lebanon talks and fresh government statements
Polymarket pricing for an Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire by Apr 30, 2026 surged ~25pp, likely on reports of new Israel–Lebanon talks (AP) and coordinated government statements on Lebanon.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 15, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace deal’ odds jump on renewed-talks reports; oil and risk gauges ease
Polymarket odds rose to 39% after reports of possible US–Iran talks resuming in Islamabad, with risk assets firmer and oil softer on de‑escalation hopes.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 13, 2026
Odds plunge that Trump will announce end of Iran operations by Apr 30, after talks collapse and blockade move
Polymarket probability fell 25.5 pp to 26% as U.S.–Iran talks ended without a deal and Axios reported Trump announced a naval blockade, cutting near-term odds of an end-of-operations statement.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 11, 2026
US–Iran meeting by Apr 10 odds plunge into deadline; later-dated markets surge on ceasefire signals
Price fell ~19pp to 6% into the Apr 10 cutoff, likely on lack of public confirmation of an in‑person US–Iran meeting, while official April 8 ceasefire statements boosted later-dated “meeting” markets.