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US forces enter Iran by March 31? Odds rebound on DoD strike update, conflict persists
Polymarket Briefs · Mar 22, 2026

The market ticked up ~3.5pp to 21% in 24h—an extreme daily move—likely reacting to official updates on ongoing U.S. operations and reporting that the war shows no near-term end.

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Polymarket Briefs

Polymarket Briefs · Mar 22, 2026
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Odds rebound on DoD strike update, conflict persists

The market ticked up ~3.5pp to 21% in 24h—an extreme daily move—likely reacting to official updates on ongoing U.S. operations and reporting that the war shows no near-term end.

Open US Military article
Polymarket Briefs · Mar 21, 2026
Odds of US forces entering Iran by Dec 31 slip; traders weigh ‘winding down’ signals

The market eased 1.5pp on the day and 4.5pp on the week to 67%, likely reflecting reports the U.S. may “wind down” operations even as strikes on Iran continue.

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Polymarket Briefs · Mar 20, 2026
Odds of US forces entering Iran by Mar 31 plunge over the week as traders push risk into April

The market fell about 17pp over the past week to 18%, likely reflecting the shrinking March window and cross-market pricing that places higher odds on an April entry.

Open US Military article