Polymarket Topic Hub
China Polymarket Briefs
China-linked policy, trade, Taiwan, and regional security market narratives.
9 Topic Results
Topic matching combines canonical topic keywords with optional Sanity topic synonyms.
Polymarket Analysis • May 19, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace’ odds jump after reported US strike cancellation; de‑escalation signal leads
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 rose 10.5pp to 36% over 24h, likely on AP’s report that President Trump called off a planned strike on Iran at Gulf allies’ request.
Polymarket Analysis • May 16, 2026
Trump 2026 Nobel Peace Prize odds surge after official China readouts on Trump–Xi talks
Polymarket odds that Donald Trump wins the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize jumped 4.5pp to 11%, likely on official Chinese government readouts and media coverage of Trump–Xi meetings signaling a new bilateral framework.
Polymarket Analysis • May 12, 2026
Trump China-visit market surges to ~94% on clustered reports of a Trump–Xi summit and imminent travel
Probability jumped 10.6 pp in 24h (75.1 pp in 7d) to ~94%, likely on May 11 reports of a Trump–Xi summit and that President Trump is heading to China this week.
Polymarket Analysis • May 2, 2026
Odds of a Trump announcement lifting the Hormuz blockade fall; US signals and oil spike point to continued pressure
The market fell 4.5pp to 15%, likely reflecting US government messaging that the blockade remains in place and reports of a potential extension, reducing odds of a near-term lift.
Polymarket Analysis • May 1, 2026
US–Iran “permanent peace deal” odds drop sharply on hawkish signals and US planning
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 fell 10.5pp to 30%, likely on US State Department comments flagging major hurdles, Iran’s hardline rhetoric, and reports of new US military options.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 28, 2026
Hormuz blockade-lift odds crash into single digits as U.S. officials signal policy unchanged and deadline looms
Polymarket odds that Trump will announce lifting the U.S. Strait of Hormuz blockade by Apr 30 fell to 5% (−7.5pp on the day), likely due to the imminent deadline and U.S. statements indicating the blockade remains in place.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 28, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds plunge to 2.3% after US confirms Islamabad talks canceled and direct contacts rare
Probability fell 7.2pp to 2.3% as Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed planned Islamabad talks were canceled and said US–Iran contacts remain mostly indirect, with the April 30 deadline imminent.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 23, 2026
Hormuz blockade-lift odds crash as US enforcement continues and UK leads reopening planning
Polymarket odds fell 17.5pp to 6% as official signals pointed to the blockade remaining in force—U.S. enforcement (Apr 20) and a UK-led planning conference (Apr 21) suggest no imminent lift.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 9, 2026
Hormuz “normal traffic” odds plunge as shippers stay cautious despite ceasefire and policy noise
The market fell 35pp to 27%, likely on reports of continued carrier caution and new policy uncertainty (Iran tolls), despite official ceasefire signals and facilitation plans.