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Showing 6 results for “Defense”
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 29, 2026
Polymarket ‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ surges; official G7 and US/UK defense signals lift perceived risk
Pricing for ‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ moved sharply higher, likely on coordinated G7 messaging on Iran and fresh US/UK operational updates indicating sustained regional hostilities.
Polymarket Analysis • Mar 30, 2026
Polymarket: ‘US forces enter Iran by April 30?’ surges to 71% on official conflict updates and G7 focus
The contract jumped to 71%, likely on coordinated G7 statements, a U.S. operational update, and UK reporting of active air-defense actions, all pointing to elevated near-term conflict risk.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 14, 2026
Israel–Iran strike odds plunge 29pp as official signals stress maritime security and ceasefire talks
Pricing for an Israeli strike on Iranian soil by Apr 21 fell 29pp to 22%, likely on Apr 13 government signals prioritizing Hormuz mine‑clearing and comments on Iran–US ceasefire sincerity.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 13, 2026
Odds plunge that Trump will announce end of Iran operations by Apr 30, after talks collapse and blockade move
Polymarket probability fell 25.5 pp to 26% as U.S.–Iran talks ended without a deal and Axios reported Trump announced a naval blockade, cutting near-term odds of an end-of-operations statement.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 6, 2026
US–Iran ceasefire (by Apr 15) jumps to 12% on US signals operations are “near completion”
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 15 rose 6.5pp to 12% in 24h, apparently reacting to US government statements that objectives in Iran are nearing completion and fresh reports on active operations.
Polymarket Analysis • Apr 1, 2026
“US forces enter Iran by Apr 30?” drops 12pp; defensive US moves and EU oil-security focus cool near-term incursion odds
The market fell to 58% (−12pp, 24h), likely as traders digested AP reporting that fresh U.S. deployments are framed as deterrent and an EU Commission call prioritized energy security over escalation.