Prediction Markets
22 articles · 22 recent · 2 source types
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US–Iran meetingbyApr23 odds plunge 63pp to 15% as deadline nears, with US blockade enforcement and ceasefire reports reducing nearterm meeting prospects.
US–Iran meeting odds jumped to 49% on reports of last‐ditch engagement and official signals as the April 21 deadline nears. Move looks event‐driven.
US–Iran ‘permanent peace deal’ odds fell 9.5pp to 20% after Hormuz crisis reports and firm US/EU/UK statements signaled heightened tensions.
US–Iran peace odds jumped to 59% on extreme repricing, amid US policy signals favoring economic pressure and stronger regional ceasefire bets.
Odds of an Israeli strike on Iranian soil by Apr 21 fell 29pp to 22%, tracking U.S. Hormuz mine‐clearing and ceasefire signals. Move is an extreme 24h repricin...
Polymarket odds that Trump will announce the end of Iran operations by Apr 30 plunged after talks collapsed and a blockade was reported, despite earlier ceasef...
US–Iran meeting by Apr 10 odds fell 19pp to 6% into the deadline, as no public meeting was confirmed; laterdated markets rallied on April 8 ceasefire signals.
Polymarket odds of US forces entering Iran by Apr 30 surged to 71% on G7 statements and a U.S. operational update, an extreme move with high volume.