Iran
57 articles · 40 recent · 2 source types
The European Commission highlighted Romania’s migrant employment reforms as labour shortages and EU migration policy changes converged.
The UK launched a Defence Universities Alliance backed by £182 million to expand defence research, skills and student pathways.
UK, French, G7 and Australian statements linked Iran deescalation demands to nuclear verification, energy security and foodmarket risks.
European Commission detailed €52m support and proposed tarifffree access for 80% of Armenian exports, with total support at €288m to bolster resilience, trade and connectivity.
Odds of a US–Iran final nuclear deal by Dec 31, 2026 fell to 30% after US strikes and firm E3 messaging. Extreme downside move with crossmarket confirmation.
US–Iran blockade odds on Polymarket jumped to 56% amid Trump threats and official focus on Hormuz; extreme 24h and 7d zscores signal a sharp repricing.
Polymarket odds that Mojtaba Khamenei is seen by July 31 rebounded to 8% after a 24h spike, amid UK and EU actions spotlighting Iran; crosssignals remain mixe...
US–Iran final nuclear deal odds fell to 13% amid escalation headlines and UK diplomatic rebuke, with crossmarkets turning hawkish and WTI up over 7 days.
European Commission welcomed the USIran agreement, urging swift implementation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore navigation, and to facilitate broader regional talks.
Odds of a US–Iran final nuclear deal by Aug 31, 2026 fell to 24% after a US funding request tied to Iran conflict costs, despite IAEA inspection signals.
Odds for U.S. acceptance of Iranian Hormuz transit fees rose to 3% on Switzerland talks, but the weekly trend is down. EU cites a U.S.–Iran accord to reopen th...
US–Iran meeting odds jumped to 94.7% on Swissconfirmed talks and reports of Sunday engagement; EU Commission noted a US–Iran agreement on June 15.
Polymarket on Iran halting uranium enrichment plunged 58pp to 4%, as delayed talks and EU statements lacked a nuclear pledge. Crossmarket and news context.
US–Iran meeting by Jun 19 odds plunge 42pp on deadline doubts despite reported Friday talks and an EU statement on a broader agreement.
Hormuz ‘normal by June’ odds rose to 22% after EU backed a US–Iran agreement and leaks signaled reopening. Sharp, eventdriven repricing with an extreme zscor...
Odds Iran will end all uranium enrichment by June 30 jumped on official US–Iran deal signals and imminent talks; no explicit enrichment pledge yet.
US–Iran agreement market jumped to 99.7% after June 15 deal announcements and EU confirmation, with crossmarkets and oil signaling deescalation.
US–Iran ceasefireextension market surged to 99.9% after NPR reported an announced deal; AP flagged final mediation in Tehran. Drivers, context, and signals.
US–Iran nuclear deal odds jumped to 62% on reports of a possible accord within days and coordinated IAEA/Quad actions. Move looks extreme with limited time lef...
Odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by July 31 jumped to 51% on reports of an imminent memorandum and ceasefire, despite cautious official statements.