Iran
36 articles · 36 recent · 2 source types
US–Iran permanent peace odds fell 11.5pp to 28% after NPR reported the U.S. shot down Iranian drones; related markets and risk metrics also turned lower.
Iran airspaceclosure odds rebounded 6pp to 26.5% amid weaker ceasefire bets; energy markets didn’t confirm. Contract runs through June 30.
HM Government funded Project NYX, selecting four UKbased teams to develop autonomous drones that enhance Apache helicopter operations.
Polymarket odds for a U.S.announced Iran ceasefire extension by May 31 fell to 26% amid no official U.S. statement, despite Cabinetlevel talks.
At a Brussels forum, the European Commission announced a €15m technical assistance hub and €14m for AlRastan Hospital within a €175m Syria recovery package and €620m program.
Odds of a USannounced Iran ceasefire extension by May 26 plunged after reports of US strikes and no qualifying US statement. Extreme 24h move into expiry.
Odds that the Iran ceasefire holds through May 31 plunged to 2.8% after synchronized late‐May repricing across adjacent contracts and uncertain deal news.
US–Iran ‘permanent peace by May 26’ odds crashed to 9% as the deadline nears, reports stress ceasefire steps, and no official deal is confirmed.
Odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by May 31 jumped to 69% on reports of a ‘largely negotiated’ framework and easing oil; crossmarkets confirm.
Odds of Iran closing its airspace by May 31 surged to 49% after UK/EU warnings on Hormuz disruptions and jet fuel risks. Extreme 24h move with confirmation.
Odds of Iran closing its airspace by May 24 rose to 34% on UK/EU warnings over Hormuz disruption and fresh signs of Gulf tension. Move is an extreme spike.
US–Iran permanent peace odds rose to 36% after AP reported Trump called off a planned strike. Oneday spike amid mixed government signals and elevated oil.
US–Iran permanent peace odds fell 6.5pp to 26%, amid CENTCOM’s conflict update and Iran’s warning on stalled talks. Move screens as extreme and trend‐continuin...
US–Iran permanent peace deal odds fell 11.5pp to 39% after reports of a rejected Iranian reply and firm US policy signals.
US–Iran inperson meeting odds fell to 17% as officials stressed enforcement and no meeting was announced, with the US awaiting Iran’s response.
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by May 11 fell to 6% after firm US messaging on naval operations and sanctions and reports of new strikes.
Polymarket odds of an Iran airspace closure by May 8 fell to 9% after a U.S. mission announcement and diplomacy signals eased nearterm escalation risk.
US–Iran permanent peace deal odds fell 10.5pp to 30% after hawkish signals and new US military planning. Government statements and market context inside.
US–Iran peacedeal odds rebound 2.5pp after a 23pp weekly slide, as US and UK officials stress unresolved straits and nuclear issues ahead of a May 31 deadline.
Odds of a US–Iran inperson diplomatic meeting by Apr 30 fell 31pp to 57%, after reported failed talks in Pakistan and heightened maritime security moves.