Iran
73 articles · 37 recent · 2 source types
U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio set out positions on Iran, Gulf shipping security and Venezuela oil policy in two State Department interviews.
Polymarket odds of a US announcement ending the Iran blockade by Sept 14 fell sharply amid renewed US strikes in Iran and no qualifying US policy signal.
Odds the US announces an end to its Iran blockade by Oct 31 rose to 44% (+6.5pp) on an extreme 24h spike, without a new US policy signal; related markets diver...
Odds of an Iran–Oman Hormuz agreement by Sept 30 fell 21.5pp to 37%, amid US pressure on Iran trade and no qualifying joint statements.
Odds of a US announcement ending the Iran blockade by Sep 30 rose to 40% after reports on Iran’s fuel shortages and new US sanctions; extreme 24h spike.
Odds of a US announcement ending the Iran blockade by Sep 14 rose 6.5pp to 19%. Crossmarket flows led the move; no new US Iran policy signal identified.
Odds of an Iran–Oman Hormuz traffic agreement by Sept 30 fell sharply amid UAE–Iran escalation and French expulsions, with extreme zscores.
Odds that the US announces an end to the Iran blockade by Aug 31 fell sharply, reflecting a nearing deadline and no qualifying official signal.
Odds for an Iran–Oman Hormuz agreement rebounded to 37% after a 47pp weekly slide, amid incident reports and official censure with no qualifying deal signals.
The European Commission highlighted Romania’s migrant employment reforms as labour shortages and EU migration policy changes converged.
The UK launched a Defence Universities Alliance backed by £182 million to expand defence research, skills and student pathways.
Odds of a U.S. announcement ending the Iran blockade fell to 32%, driven by Iran’s Aug 10 stance and no U.S. policy signal.
Odds of a US announcement ending the Iran blockade fell 30pp to 34%, amid no official signal and synchronized drops in neardated markets ahead of the Aug 15 d...
Odds of a U.S. announcement ending Iran’s blockade by Aug 31 fell 6pp to 57% as official signals emphasized talks without a suspension.
Polymarket odds for a US announcement ending the Iranian blockade jumped to 47% after Aug 2 deescalation signals and official State Dept remarks.
US–Iran final deal odds fell to 3.3% on conflict headlines and no official progress. Extreme downside move; mixed crossmarket and macro confirmation.
Polymarket odds of a US announcement ending the Iran blockade fell to 7%, amid APreported hostilities and no qualifying US signal before the July 31 deadline.
Odds of a US halt to offensive operations against Iran surged to 95.6% on reports of an attack pause and mediator progress, despite no formal US halt announcem...
Odds of a US–Iran final nuclear deal by Dec 31, 2026 fell to 30% after US strikes and firm E3 messaging. Extreme downside move with crossmarket confirmation.
US–Iran blockade odds on Polymarket jumped to 56% amid Trump threats and official focus on Hormuz; extreme 24h and 7d zscores signal a sharp repricing.