Iran

Former President Trump has issued threats targeting Iran’s infrastructure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, coinciding with deadly airstrikes in Iran and growing geopolitical strains. Meanwhile, Greece faces an EU subsidy fraud probe, and North Korea strengthens ties with Belarus.

The Iran conflict marks its sixth week with the first US military aircraft shot down by enemy fire in over 20 years. Efforts to locate a missing American serviceman continue amid heightened regional tensions and diplomatic disputes over airspace use.

China steps into a leadership role amid the Iran war, while US military and diplomatic actions face regional and international challenges.

This week saw significant developments in the US political landscape, marked by escalating tensions in the Iran conflict, evolving transatlantic diplomatic dynamics, and notable shifts in US immigration enforcement and legal rulings. These interconnected events highlight the complex interplay between foreign policy, d…

This week in politics saw a fragile US Department of Homeland Security funding deal amid operational risks, escalating conflict between Israel and Iran with regional repercussions, and a landmark UN resolution recognizing the transatlantic slave trade as a grave crime demanding reparations.

This week in defence, persistent conflict in Ukraine intersected with tentative Easter truce discussions amid ongoing Russian strikes. Meanwhile, U.S. political and military strategy toward Iran was spotlighted by President Trump's national address. In Lebanon, escalating violence and humanitarian crises raised concer…

UK told the UN Security Council it would champion UN–Arab League coordination to address Iran-linked tensions and protect Strait of Hormuz stability.

UK urged tighter UN–Arab League coordination and cited efforts to secure navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside G7 backing and new Franco-Korean maritime cooperation.

Tallinn Mechanism members pledged €302.6 million since Dec 2023 to strengthen Ukraine's civilian cyber defence amid ongoing Russian cyber attacks.

Polymarket odds rose 6.5pp to 47%, likely on US government statements that military objectives in Iran are nearing completion and that messages are being exchanged, alongside fresh deadline-focused headlines.

Probability rose 27.5pp over 7 days to 94%, likely on U.S. government statements of ongoing operations in Iran and reporting on a downed U.S. aircraft and missing aircrew on Iranian soil.

Polymarket odds jumped 44pp to 76% after WTI printed above $100 and EU parliamentary queries flagged Strait of Hormuz disruption and war-risk insurance concerns.