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The market’s probability fell over the past week to 2.3%, an extreme 7‑day downside move, likely reflecting the contract’s imminent March 31 deadline despite continued war headlines.
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The market’s probability fell over the past week to 2.3%, an extreme 7‑day downside move, likely reflecting the contract’s imminent March 31 deadline despite continued war headlines.
Open Energy Markets articleThe market probability for the Iranian regime falling by June 30, 2026, decreased by 1.5 percentage points over 24 hours, likely reflecting escalating military tensions and ongoing conflict in the region.
Open Energy Markets articleThe market probability for crude oil reaching $120 by the end of March dropped 18 percentage points over the past week, likely reflecting persistent geopolitical risks and recent price trends.
Open Energy Markets article