Strait of Hormuz
Pillar article
Strait of Hormuz normalization odds slump on US blockade enforcement and ceasefire uncertainty
Polymarket Briefs · Apr 21, 2026
Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April fell 12.5pp to 17%, likely on a US announcement of blockade enforcement and reports that a US–Iran ceasefire extension faces obstacles.
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Polymarket Briefs
Polymarket Briefs · Apr 21, 2026
Strait of Hormuz normalization odds slump on US blockade enforcement and ceasefire uncertainty
Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April fell 12.5pp to 17%, likely on a US announcement of blockade enforcement and reports that a US–Iran ceasefire extension faces obstacles.
Polymarket Briefs · Apr 18, 2026
Hormuz “normal traffic by Apr 30” odds surge on Iran’s ‘open’ declaration and UK/EU pressure
Yes-probability jumped after Iran said the Strait is “completely open” during a ceasefire, and UK/EU statements pressed for restoring safe commercial passage.
Polymarket Briefs · Apr 9, 2026
Hormuz “normal traffic” odds plunge as shippers stay cautious despite ceasefire and policy noise
The market fell 35pp to 27%, likely on reports of continued carrier caution and new policy uncertainty (Iran tolls), despite official ceasefire signals and facilitation plans.