Ceasefire
Polymarket odds rose 6.5pp to 47%, likely on US government statements that military objectives in Iran are nearing completion and that messages are being exchanged, alongside fresh deadline-focused headlines.
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Polymarket odds rose 6.5pp to 47%, likely on US government statements that military objectives in Iran are nearing completion and that messages are being exchanged, alongside fresh deadline-focused headlines.
Polymarket odds of a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 fell 15.5pp to 23%, likely on April 1–2 US government statements stressing ongoing operations and no immediate truce.
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 fell 4.5pp to 45%, likely on reports of Iran tightening Strait of Hormuz transit rules and government statements focused on conflict rather than ceasefire.