Middle East
30 articles · 30 recent · 2 source types
Odds of an Israeli strike on Iranian soil by Apr 21 fell 29pp to 22%, tracking U.S. Hormuz mine‐clearing and ceasefire signals. Move is an extreme 24h repricin...
Polymarket ‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ dipped to 65%, likely on U.S. deescalation signals and preaddress positioning. Move flagged as extreme by zscore.
Polymarket’s ‘US forces enter Iran by Apr 30?’ fell 12pp to 58% on defensive U.S. deployment signals and EU energysecurity focus, an extreme 24h pullback.
Polymarket odds of US forces entering Iran by Apr 30 surged to 71% on G7 statements and a U.S. operational update, an extreme move with high volume.
‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ jumps on G7 and US/UK defense signals. Datadriven brief on drivers, crossmarkets, and risk context.
Odds of US forces entering Iran by Mar 31 fell to 11% on Polymarket, amid G7 restraint messages and no evidence of imminent ground entry.