Defense

Pricing for an Israeli strike on Iranian soil by Apr 21 fell 29pp to 22%, likely on Apr 13 government signals prioritizing Hormuz mine‑clearing and comments on Iran–US ceasefire sincerity.

Polymarket probability fell 25.5 pp to 26% as U.S.–Iran talks ended without a deal and Axios reported Trump announced a naval blockade, cutting near-term odds of an end-of-operations statement.

The market fell to 58% (−12pp, 24h), likely as traders digested AP reporting that fresh U.S. deployments are framed as deterrent and an EU Commission call prioritized energy security over escalation.