Russia
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NATO–Russia clash odds spiked to 7.5% on extreme 24h volume, aligning with fresh NATO activity and EU support updates. Shortterm, headlinedriven move.
UK conducts first intercept of a Russian shadow fleet tanker, SMYRTOS, in the Channel with Royal Marines and the NCA, to enforce oil sanctions.
Germany ran CIMIC Quadriga 2026 in Lower Saxony to test civilmilitary crisis coordination with 28 nations across 150 scenarios over 12 days.
UK told the OSCE Russia suffered heavy losses and increased civilian harm, citing large missile and drone barrages, and reaffirmed support for Ukraine.
UK used a UN Security Council meeting to report 170 Ukrainian civilian deaths in 22 days and urged Russia to accept a ceasefire to protect civilians.
UK condemns Russia's aggression in Ukraine with rising civilian casualties; US highlights unique nature of Iran conflict amid Operation Epic Fury.
The UK convened defence industry leaders to boost support for Gulf allies facing Iranian attacks, including ordering additional Lightweight Multirole Missiles.
Odds Russia captures Kostyantynivka by Sep 30, 2026 surged to 89% after claim–counterclaim headlines. Extreme move; crossmarkets broadly confirm.