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Conflict
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Polymarket: ‘US forces enter Iran by April 30?’ surges to 71% on official conflict updates and G7 focus
Polymarket Briefs · Mar 30, 2026
The contract jumped to 71%, likely on coordinated G7 statements, a U.S. operational update, and UK reporting of active air-defense actions, all pointing to elevated near-term conflict risk.
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Polymarket Briefs
Polymarket Briefs · Mar 30, 2026
Polymarket: ‘US forces enter Iran by April 30?’ surges to 71% on official conflict updates and G7 focus
The contract jumped to 71%, likely on coordinated G7 statements, a U.S. operational update, and UK reporting of active air-defense actions, all pointing to elevated near-term conflict risk.
Open Conflict articlePolymarket Briefs · Mar 23, 2026
Israel–Lebanon ground offensive odds surge to 98.7% amid late-window repricing and regional escalation signals
The market’s probability for a major Israeli ground offensive in Lebanon by Mar 31, 2026 jumped about 20pp this week to 98.7%, likely reflecting late-window repricing and broader escalation signals.
Open Conflict article