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US–Iran ‘permanent peace deal’ odds plunge on Hormuz crisis reports and official warnings
Polymarket Briefs · Apr 19, 2026
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by Apr 22, 2026 fell 9.5pp to 20%, likely on reports Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and US/EU/UK statements signaling heightened tensions.
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Polymarket Briefs · Apr 19, 2026
US–Iran ‘permanent peace deal’ odds plunge on Hormuz crisis reports and official warnings
Polymarket odds for a US–Iran permanent peace deal by Apr 22, 2026 fell 9.5pp to 20%, likely on reports Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and US/EU/UK statements signaling heightened tensions.
Polymarket Briefs · Apr 21, 2026
US–Iran meeting (by Apr 22, 2026) ticks higher; timing shift from Apr 21 variant amid US blockade news
The market rose 3pp to 69% over 24h, likely reflecting a one‑day timing shift from the April 21 twin contract, despite a US government blockade action and media signals questioning near‑term talks.
Polymarket Briefs · Apr 20, 2026
US–Iran meeting odds surge to 49% on last-ditch engagement reports and official signals
The market jumped 10.5pp to 49%, likely on reports of last‑ditch engagement via Pakistan and U.S./European official statements during a narrowing ceasefire window.