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‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31?’ jumps to 94% on official US war updates and reports of downed jet over Iran
Polymarket Briefs · Apr 5, 2026
Probability rose 27.5pp over 7 days to 94%, likely on U.S. government statements of ongoing operations in Iran and reporting on a downed U.S. aircraft and missing aircrew on Iranian soil.
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Polymarket Briefs
Polymarket Briefs · Apr 5, 2026
‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31?’ jumps to 94% on official US war updates and reports of downed jet over Iran
Probability rose 27.5pp over 7 days to 94%, likely on U.S. government statements of ongoing operations in Iran and reporting on a downed U.S. aircraft and missing aircrew on Iranian soil.
Polymarket Briefs · Apr 2, 2026
Polymarket: ‘US forces enter Iran by Dec 31’ dips; de‑escalation signals and official timelines weigh
The market slid ~1.5pp to 65% over 24h, likely reflecting U.S. government messaging that objectives are near and “weeks, not months” from completion, plus de‑escalation cues flagged by AP.
Polymarket Briefs · Apr 4, 2026
Polymarket odds for 'US forces enter Iran by Apr 30' surge to 85% on US war statements and downed jet report
Contract repriced sharply higher, likely on official U.S. briefings about ongoing operations in Iran and news a U.S. jet went down over Iran, tightening the window to April 30.