Central Development
The EU’s greenhouse gas trajectory showed a short-term reversal in the first quarter of 2026: emissions rose 0.3% to an estimated 837 million tonnes of CO2-equivalents, with the electricity and gas sector recording the largest increase, according to the European Commission. The same release said emissions increased in 20 EU countries and declined in seven, with Slovenia posting the largest reported reduction at 5.0%; EU GDP was described as stable, with a slight year-on-year increase.
Why It Matters
The quarterly rise sits against a longer decarbonisation record. The European Environment Agency reported on April 17 that EU greenhouse gas emissions were 40% below 1990 levels and fell a further 3% between 2023 and 2024. The EEA also said those data were submitted to the UNFCCC as part of the EU greenhouse gas inventory, making the figures part of the bloc’s formal climate reporting process.
Perspective
The evidence points to mixed rather than uniformly negative momentum. The EEA, an EU agency central to environmental monitoring, said provisional data showed average CO2 emissions from new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles registered in Europe decreased significantly in 2025 compared with 2024, and framed that as reflecting continued automotive-sector emissions reduction efforts, according to the European Environment Agency. The difference is important: quarterly economy-wide emissions can move with energy-sector conditions, while new-vehicle averages track a narrower regulatory and market segment.
What to Watch
Next Eurostat quarterly estimates, especially whether power and gas remain the main source of increase.
- Country-level follow-through in the 20 member states where emissions rose.
- Further EEA inventory updates and whether the 2025 vehicle trend persists in later provisional or final data.
