Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Price history
Price and odds trends for the selected range and interval.
Current implied probability level.
Overlay a technical indicator on the odds.
Last price
0.4¢
Yes
0.4%
No
99.6%
Liquidity
399,250.291
Vol 24h
218,806.418
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Start Date
Dec 17, 2025
Creation Date
Dec 17, 2025
End Time
Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM
Days Remaining
15 days remaining
Live response · Last updated 6/15/2026, 1:21:38 AM
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