Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Price history
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Current implied probability level.
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Last price
26¢
Yes
26.5%
No
73.5%
Liquidity
629,514.695
Vol 24h
1,070,898.693
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Start Date
Nov 5, 2025
Creation Date
Nov 4, 2025
End Time
Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM
Days Remaining
154 days remaining
Live response · Last updated 7/30/2026, 3:04:40 AM
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