Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Price history

Price and odds trends for the selected range and interval.

NO token

Timeframe

Interval

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Current implied probability level.

Indicator

Overlay a technical indicator on the odds.

Clamp Y-axis to 0–100%

Last price

6.1¢

Yes

6.2%

93.8%

Liquidity

550,063.485

Vol 24h

71,204.575

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Start Date

Jul 24, 2025

Creation Date

Jul 24, 2025

End Time

Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

Days Remaining

199 days remaining

Live response · Last updated 6/15/2026, 1:21:37 AM

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