Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? market

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Price history
Price and odds trends for the selected range and interval.

Current implied probability level.

Overlay a technical indicator on the odds.

Last price
Yes
1.8%
No
98.2%
Liquidity
202,764.337
Vol 24h
35,503.268
Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Start Date
May 22, 2026
Creation Date
May 22, 2026
End Time
Jul 31, 2026, 12:00 AM
Days Remaining
31 days remaining
Live response · Last updated 6/30/2026, 2:27:28 AM

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